Bradford Update
Posted: July 20th, 2015 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 184 Comments »Sam Bradford’s name came up on Twitter a couple of times today and the topics seemed worth discussing.
Was asked about Sam Bradford’s contract on @NFLTotalAccess: I’m told he plans to play it out this year on the final year of his deal.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) July 20, 2015
Bradford is smart to play out his deal. He made plenty of money on his rookie contract so he’s not in the same situation as someone like Russell Wilson, a player who is dying to get paid big bucks. Bradford could sign a safe deal now, but he’s smart to let this season play out. If he believes in himself, the Eagles and Chip Kelly’s offense, this is a no-brainer. QBs fill the stat sheet in this offense.
Obviously Bradford’s health is the X-factor, but he’s never played behind such a good O-line and that should help him. “Should” being the key word. The line will have a pair of new starters and all it takes is one missed block for a QB to take a big hit.
The Eagles hope the problem next February or March is trying to figure out Bradford’s value after a great year. That would be a good problem to have. If Bradford only has a so-so season, both sides will have to figure out what to do. That would be the worst possible outcome. If Bradford just stinks or he gets hurt, you just acknowledge the mistake and move on.
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@EliotShorrParks if Bradford was traded to Cowboys, would he strike fear in our hearts? #noway
— Steve Jamison (@sjamisonjr) July 20, 2015
This is somewhat of a bogus argument.
Does anyone fear Nick Foles? I sure don’t. And yet Nick Foles had one of the greatest statistical seasons in NFL history. Why? He played in the right offense at the right time.
Bradford isn’t here as the franchise savior. He’s not here to carry the team on his back. He is here to be a piece of the puzzle. Bradford has very good pieces around him and a great offensive coach. Bradford can thrive in that role. That doesn’t mean he will, but he can.
If the Jaguars dealt for Bradford and expected him to magically lead them to the playoffs, that would be foolish.
No one should fear Bradford right now. Let’s see what the guy does in this system. He might be Drew Brees 2006 or Kurt Warner 1999. Or he might turn out to be just another high pick who played his best football in college.
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Jimmy Bama is still insane.
If you aren't using Eagles STs coordinator Dave Fipp's eyes to teach your kids "ROYGBIV," you're a bad parent. pic.twitter.com/qIgX5VXTnd
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) July 20, 2015
And right.
_
If Bradford plays well, and of course that’s a huge “if”, I could see a mid-season deal making sense for both sides.
As you said, Bradford has already made some money. A mid-season deal may not pay him as much as one in free agency, but one year of good play might not hugely outweigh years of mediocre-to-bad play on the Rams. Add that to the ever-present injury risk, and he might be amenable to taking adequate money in a system he can thrive in. Long term, getting a full payout and maybe a second contract might even be worth more than a big deal in free agency where he only gets the guaranteed money.
For the Eagles, they should know fairly quickly if he’ll work out once the hitting starts. Locking him up before he can hit free agency and before the cap goes up would be the smart move, assuming they have some sort of protection in terms of injury.
Now I wait for Sam Lynch to tell me the many, many ways that was stupid.
Why is that a huge “if”? He was playing very well for the Rams prior to being hurt. Or is your “if” about injury and not his actual play?
Why rush it, especially with someone with injury concerns. If he does as good as your describing they could just franchise him, the money difference wouldn’t be that much difference if he plays lights out. Its, as Tommy said, if he plays mediocre what do you do? Your not going to franchise him, do you decide to give it another shot? What other options are there? What happens if there are no other options and another team over pays? Those are the questions.
Essentially every skill player who has played for Chip has put up career numbers (Avant the most notable exception). Sanchez’ key numbers increased by 10 to 20% over his previous career bests (other than INT%, which stayed about the same). If Bradford showed similar improvement over his previous career bests, we would be looking at a season along the lines of: 68% completion percentage, 4400 yards, passer rating of 95 to 98. If he maintains his career INT% of around 2%, we are talking about an outstanding season (assuming he can stay healthy). I don’t think those numbers are unrealistic (again, if he stays healthy).
So, does that warrant a contract of 18M/year? Probably. 20M? Hard to say. But, if you believe he can put up those numbers for 5 years, and can lock in at around 18M/year for that time, that cap number may not look so bad in a couple years:
JoeBanner13
Why so many tag deals done today. Teams realize how much cap is about to go up. Time is on players side, today’s deals will look cheap soon.
7/15/15, 3:41 PM
The big question remains–why is Marcus Mariota still unsigned? There is something very odd here.
It’s crazy. They’re arguing over offset language, which only ever applies in the event of failure.
There is no way Mariota plays for the Eagles in 2015.
It’s simply not possible under league rules.
All teams are bound by a strict rookie salary cap, the Eagles have spent theirs.
If the tv networks (and big advertisers) love the idea of Mariota to the Eagles– then the rules will be fudged to let it happen. It’s now just a question of what’s going on in Mariota’s head. That I don’t know.
“fudged”? Come on. There’s the players union, nfl lawyers etc etc. You don’t “fudge”. LOL.
Com’on…just like they’ll fudge the Tom Brady suspension.
you’re comparing Brady/negotiator/nfl to find common ground vs. tv/nfl/2 nfl teams to break laws. There’s a difference….
Lol…FUDGE that!!!
I’ll believe it when I see it. The other 31 teams would go apeshit.
I bet you one million dollars it doesn’t happen.
I can’t say how far Mariota is willing to go. If he wants out bad enough–he will get it.
And I’ll bet you and Donovan McNabb a shot and beer Mariota winds up an Eagle–even if it takes a year or two to get here. Better make that two shots for Donovan.
If he doesn’t sign, he goes back into the draft.
If he goes back into the draft he loses millions upon millions of dollars.
When he signs he’s locked up in Tennessee for 5-6 years. Tennessee won’t take the cap hit in the next 3 years to move him. If they do, they’ll be the first team (and probably the last) to part with a top 5 pick in such a manner.
It’s a pipe dream. Impossible this season, virtually impossible the next few.
He could be dealt after year 3 (like Bradford). But that’s so far away, it’s crazy to have an opinion on it.
The main thing is that it is just not possible this year. After that, who knows? More importantly, who cares?
Thanks for the info. I bet Chip Kelly cares though, and is watching this closely…and Lurie already has the lawyers working on the angles. (Hey Howie, wake up.)
Now, if you were Mariota, would you rather get killed playing for a dead franchise for 5 years that can’t use your skills in its offense–a recipe for a wrecked career–or play for Kelly again and maybe turn into another Steve Young? Might even be worth a threat to sit out the season…
Nothing is impossible when $$$$$ in network tv money is whispering in your ear…
Wouldn’t Trent Richardson apply to your top 5 pick scenario?
Good call. I guess it has happened.
It was a pretty stupid move by the Colts- not in hindsight either. Not sure what the Browns cap hit was, but since they’re the hardly an NFL team I’m not sure it matters.
So you’re saying -THERE IS A CHANCE!
(but not this year. There is ZERO chance for 2015.)
it’s funny Peter King said the other day how the top two picks have looked great, and I thought wait MM is not signed has he even attended anything? how could he, without a contract in case he got hurt.
Please. It’s over.
To me it’s a wait and see situation for both sides. Why should either party commit to the other until they see how it is working? Play a half a season at least.
Fipp is focused like a laser.
From the moment I heard Bradford was traded to Philly, I went through several stages from shock to anger then confusion to acceptance.
Then I asked myself why would he do this after winning ten games?
It became very clear to me after allowing all those emotions to pass.
We have the kind of coach that is constantly calculating in his mind, perhaps every waking hour about the things he can do to make this team better from the practice squad to the starters on both sides of the ball.
I knew he was a really smart coach but pulling the trigger to make the Bradford trade happen was probably on Chips mind longer than we will ever know.
This was not a knee jerk reaction, rather a well thought out decision that he felt had to happen if he was ever going to be a Superbowl contender.
IMO he has changed this team from being very good to great in mostly one off season and I feel he will continue to churn the depth of this team into a team that cannot be beat. He wants to dominate and will do anything to make that vision a reality.
I am blown away when I think about how much talent he has amassed, and in such a short span of time. He does not waste a minute.
I feel the changes he has already made will take this team to an elite level. We will be feared IMO. Not now but very soon. Perhaps mid season.
I can’t remember feeling this way since Reggie White and Jerome Brown and Clyde Simmons were dominating opponents regularly.
I am not saying our defense will magically be world beaters, but what I am saying is that from a team standpoint we will see greatness on all phases.
I feel Sam can play on an elite level in this offense, with the players Chip has carefully handpicked to execute his unique scheme, and players who have the ability to move at the pace where the tempo will give the Eagles a huge advantage, as we witnessed at times over the past two seasons.
I think Sam will bring much more consistency of repetitive accuracy that Chip covets and he will be able to execute the uptempo with more efficiency than any of our previous QB’s we have had in several years.
You’re blown away? I’m not.
I think this team is going to go 9-7, maybe 10-6 if things go well, 8-8 or worse if they go badly.
they could go 11-5 or 7-9 or 4-12 or 14-2 also.
Of course technically they could. But 14-2 isn’t realistic given the holes on their roster. Neither is 4-12, given how good a coach Kelly is. I’d say that 6-10 is probably a realistic lower bound, 12-4 a realistic upper bound, and I’m projecting them to land right in the middle between those two.
What I don’t get is the fairly large contingent of Eagles fans who seem convinced this team is going to be a 13-3 NFC powerhouse. That seems like completely irrational optimism to me. Literally everything would have to go right, and that rarely happens.
I do not see it through your eyes, but a little optimism never hurt anyone.
You are correct when you say we got holes.
Name a team without holes and I will sell you some swamp land in Florida.
I look at this team and I just see so many positives and very few negatives, that I can’t help but get excited to see the product on the field.
I think this team will outperform your best expectations, and that will be awesome for you if it all happens.
The only difference is that I have more of a chance of being disappointed but nobodies dying over it,so I choose the optimistic approach.
Whatever works for you is okay by me though.
Go Eagles !!!!!!!!!!!!
I disagree that things with Chip are ‘well-thought out’ and that he ponders things for a long time. He strikes me as somewhat impulsive and once he decides on a course of action promptly executes on it without necessarily waiting to see if he can get a slightly better deal.
Much like Reid the GM doomed Reid the coach, I think that will happen with Chip too.
At times I guess he has to be.
But as far as trading for Bradford, I can assure you with little doubt that he thought long and hard and sought advice from many others before pulling the trigger.
I agree. Chip knows what personnel he needs at each position to make his scheme work—on both sides of the ball and special teams. He now has the resources and power to make that happen, something he didn’t have at OU. And he’s making the most of it.
Chip is getting the guys he needs. STs is already best in the league, our DL is top 5, if the DBs can be “good,” our defense will be stout and fun to watch. The offense—with the help of extra plays each game—puts up top 5 numbers.
Chip oddly, repeatedly noted “execution” as a problem several times last year. Who? When? Now we have new RBs and new QBs. Questions answered. If the new RBs and QB execute like Chip’s scheme requires—quickly and decisively—this offense *could* explode.
STs is already a top unit, our offense is already a top unit, our defensive line is already a top unit. With the key additions at QB, RB, and DB, it’s *possible* we will see a bump in performance on both sides of the ball.
Yes, I want to win now, but this is just the start. We still need to build the OL and outside linebacker positions. And we will. Give Chip time. I hope Lurie does.
Can we please wait until this team actually does something on the field before proclaiming them elite?
It’s like people here have completely forgotten about all the numerous attempts to do what Chip is trying to do that have failed in NFL history. Seriously, if his roster overhaul/spending spree were being carried out not by Chip but by, say, Dan Snyder, would you be so glowing in your praise?
of course we would not, because it is not chip calling the plays.
big difference is the coach
Being a good play caller/game day coach and being a good GM are two entirely different things. Chip has proven to be the former, but has yet to demonstrate any success as the latter. If he fails as as GM he’d hardly be the first talented NFL coach to be sabotaged by his ineptitude as a personnel evaluator.
yeah but he isn’t inept at personnel evaluation.
On what do you base that contention?
For me the jury is still out. He’s certainly… unconventional. But we have yet to see a team that is 100% his baby take the field. When it does, it might prove that he is in fact great at it. But it might also flop, and prove that he is in fact inept. I have no idea. We shall see this year. But NFL history suggests it’s exceedingly rare for a guy to be great at both jobs.
I just don’t see how it can flop.
there is too much talent on offense and in the coach to flop.
First of all, xeynon, I can tell by your posts in this thread that your approach is mostly negative. That’s rational as each year 31 teams fail to win the SB and most do not make playoffs. However, the constant negativity, pessimism, and criticism is not always warranted and not the only approach. Optimism and praise do not mean a fan is ignorant or a homer per se.
Second of all, the team has gone 10-6 the past two seasons and the STs and O has been in the top 10 of the NFL the past two years. This is not a fluke as Chip is known as an offense mind and program builder.
Our DL *is* good, arguably great. If the DBs improve, our D can be good.
Look, the Eagles have never won a Super Bowl. However, those simple minded fans and media who measure the worth, success, progress of a team by Super Bowl wins alone are foolish. Brent from EaglesRewind noted how when the Eagles lost to the eventual SB winning Bucs, we may have over-reacted but underestimating how great our team actually was simply because we lost to an even better defense.
My point is one doesn’t just look to whether or not we won a playoff game or a SB to determine whether we’re moving forward.
Sure, it’s safe to be negative because yeah, you’ll most likely be right; we likely won’t win the SB in 15/16, but that doesn’t mean Chip isn’t moving the Birds ahead.
Somebody has to play the skeptic/realist.
I don’t think I’m unduly negative at all. I’m not predicting them to go 5-11. I’m just not wearing rose-colored glasses. I think they’ll be 9-7 because of my expectations that it will take time for the new pieces to jell and that Bradford will not play all 16 games. A repeat of 10-6 is certainly very possible if things go slightly better/faster than expected.
I just don’t see where people who see 13-3, #1 seed potential get that expectation. This team has no superstar players on offense. None. Murray is the closest thing, and he’s only had one year playing at that level (and is coming off a historically heavy workload which is never a good thing for a RB). The receiving corps is composed of guys who are young (Matthews, Ertz), young and totally unproven (Agholor) or outright bad (Cooper). The offensive line lacks depth and is depending on two guys who’ve never been able to establish themselves as NFL starters in the past in Tobin and Barbre to do so now. The quarterback has never been able to stay in one piece and even when he has been healthy, has never been that good. He has a 79.3 career passer rating. To look at this and expect a consistently elite unit requires making a lot of optimistic assumptions.
On defense, the secondary should be improved, yes, but considering how bad it was last year that’s not saying much. There’s still a massive hole at safety and a lack of depth at OLB. I don’t see anything better than a middle-of-the-pack defense even presuming Maxwell pans out.
I’d venture to say that the best teams in the NFC – in other words the kind of teams I do expect to go 12-4 or 13-3, namely Seattle and Green Bay – each have multiple players on both sides of the ball that are as good or better than anyone the Eagles have. Fletcher Cox is great but the Seahawks have multiple defenders at that level in Sherman, Thomas, and Wagner, as well as tremendous depth. Matthews and Agholor may be promising but you’re delusional if you wouldn’t rather have Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Is Murray better than Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy? Maybe, but the difference isn’t huge. And all of this is leaving aside the fact that those teams have quarterbacks much better than Sam Bradford.
I look at these Eagles and see a team that’s most likely upside scenario is to scrape into the playoffs as a #5 or #6 seed. Maybe they win the division if Dallas comes back to earth (very conceivable), but they’re not any better than a #3 or #4 seed. Maybe they win a first round playoff game, but they’re likely divisional round roadkill after that. Those strike me as pretty realistic, unbiased expectations.
As I said, I don’t know that gets couched as extreme negativity, and I don’t know where the faith of people who expect a truly elite team is coming from.
How about ELITE BOUND??? Better?
True, as far as we know the Eagles can go 16-0 and win the Superbowl and be revered as the best NFL Team of All time.
That’s if we are looking at the glass half full, so to speak.
Hahahha.
Man, do I love me some Eagles.
Be interesting to see what kind of deals Philly has been offering, id hate for this to be a Maclin situation at the end of the season. But as Tommy notes Eagles really have no leverage, that’s what happens when you have $ in the bank.
I wouldn’t worry about a Maclin type situation, they’ll tag Bradford if they have to.
Id tag him. If Bradford lights up this year I’d tag him and see if he could continue to play well and stay healthy for another year before giving him 20+M a year.
Will:↑↑↓↓←→←→BA
Media Mike
•
9 hours ago
Id tag him.WHEN Bradford lights IT up this year and wins that elusive Lombardi trophy, I’d tag him and see if he
could continue to play well and stay healthy for another year before
giving him 20+M a year.
See? I fixed your comment for you.
I have to start tempering my expectations. I cant deal with too many highs and lows this season
Football can’t come soon enough. So sick of hearing Dallas fans talk and talk and talk.
I’m just sick of there not being football.
If Bradford has a solid season this year, he’ll need to be tagged as a placeholder until a deal can be worked out.
I literally have no idea to what player I could compare a potential Bradford deal to if we needed to sign him long term.
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/55267/59/eagles-fantasy-preview
A full year of healthy Bradford should result in a 61%, 4300 yard, 30 TD, 13 INT, 8 yard per attempt season if he simply mirrors the passing stats achieved here in 2013-14.
What’s that worth? What if he be betters those numbers in terms of efficiency?
If Bradford is an $18 mil / year player, I can afford that with his current salary minus that of Riley Cooper. I think we can all justify that.
This is a tough question. I think talent-wise Bradford is better than Foles and Sanchez. The question is how effective will he be coming off his 2nd ACL tear and how long will it be before he’s playing at a high level?
Last year QB stats for Eagles: 61.8% completion percentage; 4581 yards; 27 TDs; 21 INTs; 384 of 621. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/2014.htm
621 passing attempts is a lot considering we only had 474 rushing attempts. With both Murray and Mathews, I expect that number to go up. But, if the offense is clicking, while the rushing attempts may go up, the passing attempts may as well. CK is about the # of plays run, and wearing down a defense.
I think your numbers are a good start, and anything over that is gravy – all depending on whether our running game is legit.
You had me at “minus that of Riley Cooper”
There is nothing I could want more out of this season than having to sign Bradford to a $18-22M/yr deal going into next spring
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/03/02/franchise-and-transition-tag-numbers-are-in/
2015 Franchise tag number for QB is $18.5 mil. I’d be happy building a 2016 though whenever deal for Bradford based on that number if he has a solid year statistically.
Lots of Foles-bashing among Eagles fans. Can’t help but wonder if we’re in denial over how good he really was. Sure his play declined, but you don’t go 27-2 in the first place by sheer accident. You have to have some talent and a knack for reading defenses to make that happen. If you didn’t, then why hasn’t any other Eagles quarterback accomplished that since Chip got here?
Lots and lots of excuses for mediocre results by Bradford. What’s he accomplished that Foles hasn’t? He’s never even been to a playoff game. Austin Davis looked better than him last year, so don’t give me the Rams are a crappy team excuse.
Foles played well in 2013 and everything(aside from Maclin) went perfect or us that year. Opposing DBs dropped some INts, INTs got called back because of turnovers, and DBs slipped and gave up big plays. The run game was outstanding.
In 2014, teams sold out to stop the run and neither Foles or Sanchez could take advantage…. pressure or clean pocket our QBs made bad decisions.
I wouldn’t have mind if Foles played out his contract here However, if he coaching staff doesn’t have Faith in him I not going to fault them for trying to improve the position. Whether Bradford is the answer or not will be seen soon enough
I don’t care who plays QB as long as they throw the ball to the right team
I wonder whether you’re being too short-sighted with Foles. He’s only had 3 seasons and one of them was one of the greatest seasons any QB has EVER played. I think it’s premature to say he will always play the way he did last year (which by the way still resulted in the Eagles having a 6-2 record).
Not trying to dump on Foles. I like the guy but I think 2013 was “lucky.” I also think we won a lot of games in 2014 inspite of Foles (Sanchez).
With that being said, I think he would have played better this year, but not to the 2013 level.
Foles was one guy I was on a soap box about. Really had nothing to do with his stats but as Weapon Y stated, he was a baby in terms of QB’s and his future was/is really unknown and we’re not sure of his ceiling. I really liked Foles poise and demeanor. I liked the way he handled the media. I do think he great leader potential. You won’t find me bashing him. I’ll watch Rams games because of him….
…….
But I’ll disagree with “lucky”. You get lucky on a play or on a HUGE stretch, a game. You don’t get lucky the entire season. Yes, he did miss a lot of WR’s prior to getting hurt — but again, he’s a baby….
Yeah me too, I loved Foles and I still am one of his biggest fans, but I fear that being sent to Football Purgatory aka The Rams, that his talents will not flourish but will be stifled on many levels.
I feel sorry for him and will pray for him not to get killed on that inept team.
Having said that, I would love to hear about him turning that franchise around, but that Rams team is god awful and I just can’t see him doing that well.
I mean they let their #1 Overall draft pick get hammered over and over until he blew out his knee (twice in back to back seasons), running for his life on any given down and Sam is faster than Nick so I am worried for him.
A lot of the throws he made, especially the deep ball, were really impressive. You’ll never see Butt Fumble make those. There’s too much upside on Foles from 2013 for me to just write him off after just eight mediocre games. Worse quarterbacks have sunk to lower lows (cough Eli Manning cough) and rebounded just fine.
Foles was horrible on the deep ball last year. @D3FB would be better to speak to this, but is 2013 an aberration for Foles? Was 2014 Foles regressing to the mean? We’ll see this year, but Vick, Foles, and Sanchez all had their best years under Kelly. Foles did okay under pressure last year, but was terrible with no pressure. Vick didn’t take the game seriously until he got out of jail. Sanchez set a franchise record last year for completion percentage.
As Will said earlier, the coaching staff watches him in practice and have broken down a lot of tape. They may have felt they needed to move on.
I don’t think it’s conclusive as to whether 2013 or 2014 is closer to the mean for Foles. My issue is that so many people are certain that 2014 is the real Foles when plenty of good QBs have bad seasons and rebound. It’s not that definitive that Bradford will play better than him.
We can agree to your first point. I personally don’t know. But, the 2nd point we disagree. Bradford has way more talent than Foles, and I understand the reasoning. Whether it pans out is up for argument, but Bradford at his best is better IMO than Foles at his best.
On what do you base this statement? Bradford at his best has been a statistically slightly above average quarterback on a losing team. Foles at his best posted one of the greatest seasons for a QB in NFL history on a division champion. I’m not sure the up-and-down Foles we saw last year isn’t the real guy but it’s just factually incorrect to say that Bradford has ever outperformed Foles at his best in the NFL.
Think about the team around both players. Foles posted those #s in 2013 under some circumstances that generally don’t happen. The Oline stayed healthy all year, and frankly most of the offense outside of the QB position didn’t have injury issues.
That said, there is something to the debate about the weapons around the player. Foles had 3 Pro Bowl Olinemen, 1 Pro Bowl WR, 1 Pro Bowl RB, and 1 Pro Bowl TE. Under these circumstances, most QBs would thrive (even Sanchez and Vick).
How many Pro Bowl-caliber players has SB played with? His entire resume from college to the pros has been how fast he gets rid of the ball and his decision-making. Foles holds onto the ball too long, and that’s part of the problems we saw in 2014 – not being able to make quick decisions.
So no, I’m not buying the argument that Bradford isn’t a better talent than Foles just because Foles had a great year in 2013. There’s more to assessing a QB than just stats, and Bradford has all the physical tools (and mental) that puts him in a better position to succeed.
I think the degree to which Foles benefited from his supporting cast in 2013 gets blown out of proportion. DJax is a very good receiver, but not Randy Moss – he’s still a guy who requires the ball to be thrown in the right places. McCoy is very good, as was the line that year, but neither is historically great. Riley Cooper is hot garbage, as we saw last year. The third receiver was Jason Avant who is nobody’s idea of an elite weapon. And what Pro Bowl TE did Foles play with? Celek is a solid veteran but was never a Pro Bowl level player even in his prime and Ertz was a rookie. On the whole I’d say it was an above average supporting cast, but not a great one.
As for SB, he didn’t have much to work with in St. Louis, that is true. But then neither did the guys who took over for him when he got hurt (Shaun Hill, Austin Davis, etc.) and they equaled or in some cases bettered his level of performance. Bradford may have all the physical and mental tools in the world but at some point those have to translate into superior production on the field and to this point in his career they have done so only very sporadically.
Ultimately though, my point was not that Foles is necessarily better than Bradford – I don’t know that he is. It was that Foles at his NFL best has been better than Bradford at his NFL best. And that is indisputably true by whatever objective metric you want to use – traditional stats, advanced stats, QB winz. You can say you think Bradford is a better NFL QB and I think it’s fine to hold that opinion. But there is no evidence to back it up.
I agree that SB has more talent than Foles, but I’m not going to sign on to the comparative surrounding talent analysis – it’s just too subjective. It’s as simple as this: no objective analyst would ever tell you that Foles has nearly the talent that SB has, in pretty much every category. And my “eye” test agrees. Now that doesn’t mean SB will ever have a run like Foles did in 2013, or even that he will ultimately have a better career. But regarding those attributes that Kelly has the least ability to control or influence, SB>Foles. And I think most people underestimate just how bad the OL was in the first half of 2014 and just how much Shady’s dancing put Foles in bad spots behind that shaky line in 2014…but SB is simply a more talented QB than Nick, and it’s not even really reasonably debateable.
Bradford may be more talented. But talent is not all that matters. Ryan Leaf was more talented than either guy.
Durability (which neither Foles nor Bradford has shown), mental toughness, leadership ability, work ethic, etc. are all critical parts of being an elite QB and no matter how pretty a spiral SB throws there are legitimate questions about whether he possesses some of these traits (and clearly he lacks the first).
I don’t really disagree with anything you wrote (except perhaps the Leaf thing!)
Leaf was a fantastic talent. 6’6″, built like a linebacker, cannon arm, and surprisingly athletic for his size – physically he was the prototype for Roethlisberger. He was just a classic case of “million dollar body, ten cent head”.
I think Kelly watched a to of tape and did a ton of analysis before cutting Foles. Sanchez had some killer picks, but sadly he was tossing picks at the same rate Foles was. I understand the Foles move as upgrading raw talent. Was Shady bad? No one of the best in the league. Djax, same. But CK had to upgrade the talent for the scheme.
Plus Foles was just ugly to watch last year. We did win some ugly games w/ him.
Murray for McCoy is debatable but replacing DJax with Riley Cooper is not an upgrade in talent in any scheme. Nor is replacing Evan Mathis with Matt Tobin.
What makes these moves controversial is that Kelly is sacrificing talent because he thinks culture is more important. That may or may not prove to be true but I don’t think there’s any way you can argue Kelly’s moves are all about improving the talent level.
Actually this kid Kiko Alonso that we traded for Shady just might be the piece of the puzzle that puts this team on another level, so if he turns out to be a dominant player, and all the information that we have on him indicates that he will be, this team may take a huge step forward.
Foles is probably a league average QB at best.
There’s an outside chance he grows into the Flacco/Big Ben level of fringe top 10.
He’s talented enough that he can go off for one or two monster games a year.
But you’re not going to win if you force him to play hero ball.
There’s literally nothing dynamic about Foles. (Also alot of revisionist history, his deep ball got a little better but 12 months ago people talked alot of shit about it).
Also it was 10 starts. One of the hardest parts of evaluating the NFL is the small sample size (and exogenous variables).
There are legitimate arguments to be made against the trade: we gave up a second, the salary (although this is overblown), and Bradfords injury.
However, I completely reject the notion that we gave up on anything of esteemed value in Foles. I feel completely confident that “we paid to get rid of Foles” will not become a great regret in Phily sports lexicon.
I think you may be right about Foles. But I don’t think “we traded for Sam Bradford” is likely to go down among the all-time highlights in Philly sports either.
It’s not likely. Finding franchise QBs is hard.
But in a vacuum I’ll take Bradford over Foles any day.
Meh. I agree that Foles is far from an elite talent and is unlikely to ever consistently perform at the level he did in 2013 again. But when healthy, which he usually hasn’t been, Bradford has never done anything to impress me. He’s looked like the very definition of “league average starter” to me. It’s fine to pin some of the blame for that on his coaching staff/supporting cast, but then somebody has to explain to me why there wasn’t a huge dropoff when guys like Shaun Hill and Austin Davis were playing in his place.
Everyone uses the “only when healthy” argument about Bradford. We seem to forget how much of Sanchez and Barkely that Foles subjected us to with his own health issues. The equation is not simply:
Bradford – health > Foles
It’s
Bradford – health > Foles – health
Foles has yet to show that he can play a full season himself. That’s a factor in the decision as well.
hey did you see UVA won the baseball title? hope you got to watch the finals. I’m not a big college baseball fan but anytime UVA is in the title finals in any sport, sign me up.
I missed the game but did hear that they pulled it off. I had some friends who were all excited about the playoffs there, which I thought was a bit of a stretch to get excited about. I gave them shit, saying that getting excited about UVa baseball was like me getting excited about Smarty Jones winning the Triple Crown. But hey, they pulled it off. CHAMPIONS!
right. I’ll take what I can get. Would I prefer a football or bball championship? of course.
I agree.
But to me it’s not about Bradford vs. Foles in a strict sense.
It’s about this: if Chip decided Foles was not the QB to run his offense, fine. I wasn’t sold on him myself, and was okay with planning to replace him. But you do so only when you have a chance to get somebody who’s clearly better. That’s not Bradford. Kelly gave up Foles + a high pick for a guy who’s older, more expensive, (even) more brittle, and has never been as productive. A strong majority here was panning the move at the time, but many seem to have done a 180 since because In Chip We Trust. And everyone is willing to hand wave away the fact that when healthy, Bradford has not been a very good NFL quarterback. His track record of subpar performance as a Ram is all on his supporting cast. Maybe. But then why is last season, in which Foles’ supporting cast didn’t exactly cover itself in glory, a damning indictment of his long term NFL potential? When despite his uneven play he still put up a passer rating higher than Bradford’s career number? I don’t get either of those things, at all, and I don’t like the double standards and wishful thinking it seems to me are being applied here.
I think you’re cherry picking when you determine whether Foles is better than Bradford. Foles had an anomolous 2013 while playing with a VERY talented team. Good on him, I like the guy. Bradford was offensive ROY while playing with garbage.
I’m fine with worrying about Bradford’s health. I do not agree that he is not a very good QB. He was in and out of the lineup, played with absolute garbage for supporting cast, and was still ROY, and showed promise in his most recent year back. You can make the stats look however you like, but on film, he shows a great deal of promise.
Is he a sure-fire thing? No. Health is a factor. How he comes back from health issues is also a factor. He is undoubtedly a high risk play. But I think it’s VERY clear that his ceiling is much higher than Foles. Markedly so. Both based on potential and on actual game tape and actual accomplishments.
Would I rather have someone guaranteed than either Bradford or Foles? Of course. Would I rather have Bradford over Foles? Any day, and twice on Sundays. If your argument is that you’d rather have Foles, then I really don’t know what to tell you. Bradford is simply a better quarterback. There is some risk in him, but the risk is, IMHO (and in Chip’s), worth it. Chip knows, and we’ve all seen, that Foles isn’t winning you a SB. (winning you a “Super Bowl”, not a “Sam Bradford”)
Actual accomplishments? What actual accomplishments? 79.3. Bradford’s career passer rating is 79.3. That is sub-mediocre. Don’t like that? Prefer advanced stats? Well by those he’s also mediocre (and one of the worst in the league at throwing the deep ball). He won rookie of the year? Please. Michael Carter-Williams was NBA rookie of the year and is still a mediocre point guard at best.
I’m not arguing that Foles is definitively better than Bradford. I don’t think he is. I’m arguing that Bradford has never given any reason to believe that he is capable of being anything better than an average NFL starter and given the price we paid to get him, that’s a big problem. If they’d signed him off the scrap heap a la Sanchez that’s one thing. But they gave up real assets to get him. You don’t as a rule get better by trading real assets for mediocre veteran players, in any sport.
We’ll just have to agree to disagree. What I’ve seen makes me believe that it’s better to cast our lot with Bradford over Foles. Stats don’t tell the whole story, any more than Foles 2013 tells his whole story. You can pick and choose the stats you want to focus on, you can praise or denigrate the accomplishments you want to for each player. At the end of the day, Bradford is a high-risk, high-reward player, and worth a gamble of a pick. Which is really all he cost us.
You can gloat if Bradford fails, but like with the Embiid pick, I believe it was a risk worth taking on the chance that it succeeds.
If Bradford succeeds, I will happily admit my skepticism was misplaced.
But yes, we will have to agree to disagree.
just the eye test tells you Bradford has more potential.
and I like foles.
The eye test told veteran NFL scouts that Ryan Leaf, Kyle Boller, JaMarcus Russell, and Blaine Gabbert were brimming with NFL potential. I don’t have a lot of faith in the eye test.
you really don’t think Bradford has more potential then foles?
really?
wonder what Coach Kelly sees then?
What I think is that when a guy is 27 and entering his 6th NFL season potential is no longer a very relevant concept.
When you shatter your starters confidence, that’s what happens IMO.
I think Chip has the ability to rebuild Sam’s confidence by putting him in a more favorable position.
Sam even knows how much better our talent level is here in Philly and it’s worlds better than St. Louis.
Go back to research Sam Bradford’s rookie season and you will not only be amazed, but you just might view him differently.
In case you don’t know, he broke two very important NFL QB Rookie records.
He threw more completions as a rookie QB then any rookie QB that entered the league prior to his arrival in the NFL with 169.
The second one was for most completions by a rookie NFL QB without an interception with 354 consecutive passes.
I copied and pasted a couple more of his early accomplishments for your enjoyment below.
Career highlights and awards
AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (2010)
Rams Rookie of the Year (2010)
Honestly, I think it’s a reflection of the fact that people believe in Chip Kelly and are all in on him. That’s fine, but he had better have been right in his evaluations, because if Bradford stinks out the joint or gets hurt and Foles rebounds in St. Louis the honeymoon will end very quickly.
“Bradford isn’t here as the franchise savior.” — What? oh, he better be. We won’t settle for anything less. We don’t want a mediocre QB having so-so seasons and relying on the defense every season(although, not a terrible idea). I want an offensive juggernaut every year. I want defenses to fear the offense. When NE comes to town, people think — oh boy, we have to deal with Brady. Colts come to town — it’s oh boy, we have to deal with Luck. (of course, I’d settle for an Eli Manning type who has 2 rings 🙂 )
There is a difference between good QB play and having your QB be the savior. Bradford is here to be good, not to single handedly carry the team. He is here to get the ball to the playmakers and let them win the game.
Looking into my crystal ball, I predict that Bradford is here to not mess up and do decent while the run game tears up the field. Kelly will go to more of a clock management scheme to support his still questionable defense. However, it will still be up-tempo by no huddle and back to the line fast, but more runs equals clock stoppages from dropped balls. And hopefully, with a running back combo who runs north-south instead of east-west, there will be less out of bound plays. All of which helps out Bradford. Based on all that, I expect to see the defense on the ball much less than they were last year.
I think Bradford’s here to fit a certain role – CK wants him to be the true point guard at QB that he’s never had. Quick and correct decisions, repetitive accuracy (if you believe the talking points). From what I can gather, these are Bradford’s best qualities, so in theory, this offense will maximize Bradford’s talent.
If the running game isn’t cranking, the offense has a bunch of third and longs, and the O line is breaking down quickly under pressure, Bradford isn’t going to succeed. He’s not a QB like Aaron Rodgers that can do it all. But given the fit, his ceiling is at least high.
What if the o-line is not as good as everyone thinks it will be? This is not 2013.
You still have 2 Pro Bowlers, and 1 guy that probably will make it this year. The running game took a huge step forward last season when LJ got back in the lineup. Statistically, they didn’t lose much from Mathis to Barbre, and they still have a solid group of guys. They may not be the best oline, but if they are 6-8ish they are pretty darn good.
That and having a guy (or guys!) who hit the hole the line opens up as designed, and not dancing around so the line doesn’t know where to block should also help out!
I like how we’re now arguing that it was multi-time Pro Bowler Shady McCoy making journeyman free agents Matt Tobin and Andrew Gardner look bad rather than the other way around.
C’mon. Shady danced too much last year, but his blocking was awful, particularly early in the season. Let’s not pretend otherwise.
For the last two seasons, including the year where none of the Oline was hurt – he led the league in runs for losses.
As I said, he does dance too much. But last season he was getting blown up in the backfield multiple times a game by guys the Eagles’ backup interior linemen couldn’t block. All those plays against Washington, San Francisco, etc. when he took the handoff and immediately had three guys in his grill were not the result of his dance-happy running style.
But what’s the explanation for 2013?
I think we think too linearly about talent. The moves outside of Mathis are all about talent to the scheme. DM and RM are both downhill runners, which is what CK wants. As @D3FB:disqus pointed out in an earlier thread, there wasn’t much drop off behind Mathis – the problem there was he overplayed his hand.
SB is quicker with his decisions and will get rid of the ball quicker. Besides being a better all-around talent, his positives outweigh Foles in this scheme.
Just looked this up, and this was striking to me after the Seahawks game.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000441227/article/wagner-lesean-mccoy-didnt-want-no-part-of-contact
I think a lot things crystallized for Kelly after that game.
Peters is also at the age when guys start to decline, their guards are mediocre at best, and they have zero depth and will be in deep doo-doo if they suffer even one serious injury. I don’t think it’s unlikely at all that this O line turns out not to be very good.
I disagree. One thing I’ve learned from last season is that after a year in the system people improve. I think we make the decision based on where people were drafted and automatically think they don’t have enough talent to back them up.
I’m not saying the backups will be world beaters, but they did not make it a priority to draft Oline this year. They have to feel comfortable with the backups provided they don’t go through what they did last year. Barbre and Tobin played/flashed well enough last year to I think be comfortable with them. That leaves Kelly and Gardner as your backups, and they can hold the fort and play well enough to get holes open.
I’m curious to see how some of these OL look after an offseason in the system. I think they’ll be fine, just not top 5 but obviously not bottom 15.
The thing that has me worried is people giving the same reasons for Sanchez poor play with the jets that they are now giving Bradford, ex poor receivers no running game. Eagles gave Sanchez those things and he still wasn’t impressive, hopefully Bradford does well in a better situation
He did set the Eagles single season completion percentage record.
interesting point. I believe the knock on Sanchez was decision making under pressure. Which I think is still the knock. He has nice games but then always throws a pick or two. He did have the excuses you mentioned but I still read “poor judgment under pressure”. [this by the way I think is what undid Foles too. He got happy feet and lost his footwork. In a way, that physical reaction to pressure could be worse than Sanchez’ mental lapses.]
Maybe some folks who have studied Bradford more can opine on him.
I agree with the assessment on Foles, I think chip wants a qb that can see the field and react quickly, and Foles needed time to process/trust what he saw
that being said, Sanchez never had the arm or accuracy that Bradford still possesses. Also, Bradford is far better at protecting the football; he has the 12th-best current TD/INT ratio 1.55 vs Sanchez’s 1.02 (2nd-worst, ahead of Henne). Bradford has a 58.6 career comp. % compared to Sanchez’s 56.3 which was yeasted by last year’s stats. Lastly, Sam has 27 career fumbles to Mark’s 50.
http://www.footballdb.com/leaders/career-passing-tdintratio
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/chff-super-study-which-qbs-protect-it-best/10343/
i think you have to factor the torn labrum in for sanchez. I watched him play live in NY, Sanchez the Eagle is LIGHT YEARS better than Sanchez the jet.
Be interesting to see what happens in year two. Will teams get better at defending him, will he patent that pump fake, which is amazing to watch.
First, the Cowboys already have a very good QB, so Bradford wouldn’t change that dynamic. Second, it would annoy the hell out of me if they got someone like him to replace Romo. I’m really looking forward to how screwed they will be when Romo goes down and they have no money for a decent replacement.
It’s coming sooner rather then later. He stopped playing golf in the off season because his back is so bad.
That run game is not going to be the same so there is going to be more pressure on his shoulders. First game we played him we really limited the run game and he fell apart.
Romo is guaranteed a ton of money through 2019-20, so it fhey have to pay full price for a starting QB in addition to that it’d be a whole lot of money spent on the position even with the new cap.
Yup. The new Dez deal while I thought it was less then what it was going to be doesn’t help either.
They really need to do something with Carr’s contract.
I really think the Cowboys have an extremely small window that started to dramatically shrink when they got bounced in the playoffs. I think after this upcoming year the window is closed due to an aging Romo.
Even better, because they still have 3 years left to pay him while they try to retool to win again.
Not that I’m into helping the cowboys with excuses, but the short week clearly affected him more than most. That said, we were already on our backup, so no sympathy. It’s also just a matter of time before they are short weeks for his back.
It definitely did, but that just goes to show how close to the end he is coming. A short week and good run defense and he made Nate Allen look like a ball hawking Ed Reed while throwing up truly some of the ugliest passes I have seen coming from an NFL QB.
On one of Allen’s 2 picks the ball looked like it came from a shanked punt, not an NFL QB.
Last year reminded me of that one year Brett Farve had with the Vikings where he took them to the NFCG. Really extremely similar. Aging QB having his best season in a long time (arguably maybe best season ever), aided by a VERY strong run game making deep into the playoffs. We all know what happened the following year.
The point is, he is one year older, and beat up. He can’t even play his annual off season golf. Even if he has a good year you can’t expect him to replicate his best season ever at his age. Smart bet would have him regress to his norm if not below. Now take away their team MVP and they have a serious problem.
I’m not just saying this because I hate them, but logically that team is going to take a step back.
Yes you can say they added great young talent in the draft, but the only one that will have any type of immediate impact may be Collins.
As a CB you can’t expect Jones to have a big rookie impact. Edge rushers don’t normally have a big impact, plus like Marcus Smith I don’t think his body is ready for the NFL. I mean the guy weighed around 235 at the combine. I really don’t think Gregory will be a good NFL player period.
By the time they start to make an impact (if they do) Romo will be just about done taking them out of contention.
They do not have the D, ST, or coaching to survive average or below average QB play.
Their cap situation doesn’t really allow for much hope in the future.
While I think they may have a solid season this upcoming year, I don’t think it will nearly be as good as last year, and they will really start to crumble after this upcoming year.
Think you just made my day.
No, the Cowboys already have a decent QB, not a very good QB. I’d really love to know why Romo keeps getting called such a great QB year after year when he’s won 2 playoff games in his career! He’s a choke artist.
I despise the Cowboys, but Romo is a very good QB. Being a Cowboy, that means he tends to get either overrated or underrated, depending on perspective. But he was asked to carry the O for many years, and did a solid job. Then last year they finally let him manage the game, rather than gunsling, and he had an outstanding year. I’d take his career in a heartbeat at QB.
Won’t lie, I’d be laughing if the Cowboys gave up a 2nd round draft pick and a cheap QB with starting experience for Sam Bradford, a QB who missed the previous 1.5 seasons with ACL tears and wasn’t setting the world on fire before that. And I’d laugh at every silly thing the Cowboys fans say like “the Rams are terrible he had no help” And “the Cowboys O-line is the best in the league and he has Dez now”. I’d troll mercilessly. Really Jerruh, a 2nd round pick+ a young QB!?
Fear? No I’d think it was hilarious! it’d make my off season.
Of course in the name of bias (we’re talking about the bias of dragging the Cowboys through the mud then switching to throwing on the Green Shades), I’ve fully made a 180 on Sam Bradford.
If the Cowboys were coached by Chip Kelly and not Jerry Jones it wouldn’t be as funny.
CK is what makes these moves interesting.
Totally agree. I guess I have that much faith in Chip Kelly that any of the moves that I initially think are questionable, instead of thinking “that move sucks”, I think “what does Chip see that I missed”.
that’s called the benefit of the doubt. And we’re predisposed to give that to some people and not to others
but you have to assume a guy that was hired as a head coach should see things you don’t.
that’s why he is the coach and we are not, right?
That’s a fine approach. I take that approach myself.
But when you start from: even the coaches don’t know for sure, the neutral state is, well then I don’t know for sure either, I just don’t know, that’s that.
Now there are 32 coaches who have a better handle on things than you, which do you align with/trust? The one whose approach align with your beliefs? Or do you find the coach you like and align your beliefs to theirs? How do you pick which one you like? Bias always comes into play somewhere along the line and that’s why we can all have so much fun with the game, and get so passionate about it.
I’m not saying Bias is bad, or people with a bias are dumb. This is sports, this is the place to let it fly and hate the cowboys for “f-dem Cowboys'” sake. I fully embrace it
If Chip was the Coach of the Cowboys I’d consider him a joke too, just my way. There’s plenty of meat on the bone for bias to work with, both ways, with Chip Kelly. I’d probably be hee-hawing over him getting rid of Dez immediately as he transitioned to being a perennial pro-bowler somewhere else #culture, #bigpeoplebeatuplittlepeople, #sportsscience, oh I’d find a way to treat him like a joke.
That’s just Bias as an Eagle’s fan. People tend to think of themselves as above all that so their viewpoint is accurate, I know better. Because at the end of the day the future is uncertain and no one knows how everything will play out. But I give the Eagles things like : Hope, the benefit of the doubt, and dig for positive signs while rationalizing bad signs. And the opposite for the Cowboys
In fact it’s actually less convoluted to say
I don’t like this because it doesn’t make sense by standard reasoning
vs
I don’t understand but Chip did it and I like Chip so I’m good with it
Keep in mind Chip hasn’t actually accomplished anything yet. Every positive opinion is based on what we hope he accomplishes or think he’s capable of.
I’d doubt he’d want to coach for a guy like Jones (or Snyder for that matter). CK is about culture and JJ doesn’t do anything that would suggest he’s about team culture over making money.
Still regardless of why the hypothetical would never happen, do you think you’d be reverent of Chip, would you believe in the Cowboys?
I’m not so blinded that I can’t appreciate good coaching / good players on an opposing team. If CK was in Dallas, I’d be a bit jealous knowing what I know now. But I appreciated their OL back in the 90s along with Emmett Smith.
I hate that Pittsburgh has Crosby or the Rangers a good solid team that were going to struggle against. I hated the Celtics when they got a windfall the year they tanked and walked away with Allen/Garnett. I feel sick to my stomach that the the Cowboys have a true #1 threat in Dez.
I wouldn’t be reverent, but I’d be cognizant that they’ve got something better than us.
What makes you so sure that your current views are truth, not tinged green? What if it’s not the truth so plain that it would burn right through that blue star?
don’t tell the blue (or red?) pill. Keep your green eyeshades on.
Something needs to burn thru that blue star, but it ain’t truth. 🙂
Well if Murray goes off on the Cowboys I’ll be calling him “The Truth”
well he won the nfc east in the first year.
but I do not think he would get rid of dez.
Think not signing Bradford to a new deal is the right move as of now. This is a guy who in five seasons has never shown himself capable of being a franchise QB. You don’t give a guy like that a big money long term deal until he changes that.
The agent is an issue here ( name draws a blank at this moment ) with a reputation for getting QB’s some mega contracts. The problem is a number of these have been team un-friendly with the QB’s typically underperforming the contract. With this agent, I doubted that Bradford would sign before the season began, I doubt he’ll sign during the season, and he will be extremely difficult to sign to a long-term deal after the season. Plan “B”?
I think SB like CK, and while I don’t think he’s giving hometown discounts, I do think he wants to be here in Philly. This is a style of offense he likes, and if CK is the one to get his career back on track – why leave that to go to another team?
I agree that before/during the season it’s not happening. But I think if he plays well this year they get something done. If CK thinks Bradford is the guy, he will do what’s necessary to keep him here. If he isn’t, then yeah we’re looking at Plan B.
My guess is that Sanchez is the plan B. If he improves to the point where he could win just one more game than he did last year, he’d be 6-3. Projected over the year, that’s an 11 or 12 win team. Not an unbelievable leap, especially if the D and running game are better.
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles started looking at the draft too…
Eagles aren’t going to be in a position to get “the guy” in the draft.
Too much talent, too good a coach.
The dumpster fire floor for this team is 6-7 wins.
according to birds24/7 the ceiling might be 6-7 wins, coach fired, team sold to Chinese billionaires and turned into a sweatshop making Giants jerseys.
someone give those poor souls a collective hug
or don’t because they would say you were trying to mug them and kill their kittens of sadness.
Bradford’s agent is Tom Condon — former player himself.
Condon’s stable of clients include both Mannings, Tony Romo, and Drew Brees.
What those 4 QBs have in common are mega-contracts that have crippled their their teams at times.
and Super Bowl rings.
Well, not ALL of them have that in common.
But I’m sure some Dallas “fans” will grant Romo the legacy of FIVE RINGZZ!!! of yore.
Vick, Bradford, Sanchez, Foles . . . you could substitute Cunningham (post-injury), T. Detmer, Peete, and Hoying.
Eagles stumbled generally for a decade until they got McNabb after Cunningham and the Eagles got crushed in Dallas in Jan. ’93. It was really the end of the Cunnigham era in Philly even if the was here through ’94.
Eagles only won 1 playoff game (and appeared in 3 total) from ’93-99 while they went through several mediocre QBs.
yeah hard to admit you’re in qb pergatory, b/c we have so many ‘flashes’ of greatness from Qbs, but there we are. hopefully w/ a better defense, and run game, we can’t limit the importance of the qb.
I say that I have certainly have a lot more faith in Chip than I did Kotite or Rhodes.
Overpaying for mediocrity was the first concern for the Bradford trade. The chance that he might not even be good/even plays an entire season and be on the team next year? Absolutely drives fans crazy. All the optimism in the world can’t even save you from seeing that Chip will either sink or swim with Bradford (unless Sanchez can pull off a Vick miracle and somehow play out of his mind for a year).
Completely disagree. Foles was a mediocre QB, Bradford if healthy is at the least an above average QB. Yes the big if he is healthy is the most important part. Also you’re off based saying Chip sinks or swim with Bradford. If Bradford gets hurt again or flat out sucks then the Eagles don’t pay him after this year and Chip will have to find another. Chip is safe no matter what happens with Bradford. And speaking of optimism, what are fans supposed to do? Its either be optimistic or be pessimistic. I’ll take optimism.
Think everyone realizes the limitations if you don’t have a QB that’s not on the coach, at least ofr not chip has flexibility to make moves if needed.
I agree that the Eagles overpayed, but that’s what happens for even a shot at a high performing QB. Beyond that, Bradford looks like a particularly nice fit for the offense – much better than Sanchez or Foles. So, I’m ok with the overpaying in this case. And really other cases where the acquisition is potentially high leverage.
The big problem is if CK is always overpaying, which he has arguably done this offseason. Financial inefficiency all around the roster clearly isn’t good – the salary cap is a real factor in team building.
I’m optimistic after this offseason because all the big money moves look to me like they’re pretty high leverage. I tend to think we’ll get (perhaps) much more out of our RBs, LBs (with Kiko), QB, and secondary. These positions are the heart of a team built like this (well, except for the secondary, but that was clearly a huge position of need). But I can definitely see where you’re coming from.
how has he overpayed all offseason? He took Shady’s massive contract and got us Kiko. He signed DeMarco to a contract less than Shady. I mean we all were thinking that RB’s aren’t worth anything, so maybe with that angle. Maxwell got a ton yes.
I have to admit I’ve never seen Kiko play. I hope to be like, wow we gave up an $11M RB and got this guy?!?!?
At that time Shady did have a bigger contract but he doesn’t now. We ended up with Kiko and Murray for about maybe a million or so more in cap space total? That’s a steal.
One reason that you cannot build a franchise out of free agents is because they are always overpaid. Did Kelly overpay for Maxwell? Yes, but what was his option? He wanted McCourty and was rebuffed. The desperation for and perceived worth of just about any player who reaches free agency is inflated by the so-called “free market”.
As far as the trades go, you may not be on board with the Bradford acquisition, but Nick Foles was the difference between Bradford wearing Eagle green and Bradford rehabbing in Cleveland right now. Not liking the players Kelly picked up is anyone’s prerogative, but the idea that Kelly overpayed this off-season isn’t close to “arguable”.
The only times where I felt where he overpaid for a player was for Sconces. The Shady-Kiko deal is arguably overpaying too since Kiko lacks a track record to back up his value.
Hey guys, back in march I started to do a film review on Tobin. This was before the guard situation had completely shaken itself out, and I felt I was a bit higher on Tobin than the general “narrative” about the player. So I went to the tape to take a look. This was originally going to be a full post for the site but life happened, and I only got around to four games. And then Microsoft word deleted games 3 and 4 notes coughfuckyoumicrosoftcough. So I’m not going to be able to get around to finishing it, but here is what I have left from that (keep in mind this was written in March so some of that is reflected, and I’m not editing it).
Tobin or Not Tobin:
With the release of Todd Herermans, the Eagles now have a
vacancy in their starting offensive line, possibly two with rumors of Evan
Mathis being on the trading block. Matt Tobin is one of the top in-house
candidates to fill these holes. The former Iowa walk-on was a 2013 UDFA and made the 53 but did not see any meaningful playing time in 2013. Last offseason there were reports that the Eagles were extremely high on Tobin, and he seemed to play well in preseason by all accounts. Unfortunately in the preseason finale against the Jets, Tobin suffered a high ankle sprain. After the injury crisis to the offensive line in the early part of the season Tobin was rushed back and thrust into the starting lineup. He drew mixed reviews, until getting benched after a supposed poor performance and concussion against the Packers. With the Eagles reportedly high on Tobin, fans who think we are doomed if he starts, and the likelihood that he will in fact at least contend for a starting job this year, I decided to go back to the tape. Was he good? Was he bad? Was he affected by those around him? Was the ankle sprain still bothering him? Tape don’t lie.
College tape:
Run game: Does a good job at getting off the ball and
getting into the DL. Has nice quick feet. High football IQ, well coached. Does a good job of getting push at point of attack. Does a great job in zone. Works to second level extremely well. Ends up on ground a bit more than preferred, but not too bad in this regard. Occasionally sticks to DL too long on combo blocks. Not the worst thing in the world, my old head coach loved to say “Linebackers make tackles. Defensive linemen cause fumbles”.
Pass game: At best when allowed to attack the defender. Does
a good job of getting into him and can really sell the run fake. Does not have great lateral agility. Understands pass rush “games”. Solid if not overly powerful punch. Does a good job resetting his base. Will struggle against speed to power and long lever interior players. Does a great job getting out into space on screens. Played one game at LT, please God, no mas.
2014:
San Fran: LG, First NFL start. Miscommunication in Q1. Did a
good job of jolting Smith on pass rush. Smith worked towards B gap, Tobin went to help Kelce, Peters didn’t pick up Smith. Does a good job on passing off his man and waiting on next play which was a crazy DL stunt. Great job getting out to the right on bubble screen and getting the S. 3rdQ Another miscommunication with Peters. Tobin sticks with DT while DE loops around, DE gets caught in traffic. Gives up QB hit to Smith, good initially, Smith persistent, Foles pats ball to long and forces INT. Gets backdoored on outside zone to the left. Overall good game. More than held his own against a great player in Justin Smith. Head seems to be swimming at times, game is moving fast.
St. Louis: Gets beat on pass rush game by Quinn. BLOWS UP
Michael Brockers on a play action fake. Gives up QB hit, offense is trying to sell outside zone right, DT doesn’t buy it and shoots into backfield, not really his fault. Gives up QB pressure, Donald beats him with a quick inside counter. Gives up QB hit, knocked off his block by Peters burying DE. Laurinitis blitzes late, Tobin doesn’t see it. Seemed a bit gimpy at times in this game. Explains him coming off the ball too high on some runs. I think the ankle was bugging him. Overall another solid game. Game
still very fast for him from a mental standpoint.
Conclusion:
Basically his Giants game was awesome. I’ll put it up against any of Mathis’s efforts from last season.
He had some struggles. You could see the game was moving quickly for him. He and Peters didnt have great communication the first few weeks.
He’s really freakin athletic. He’s a good run blocker with potential to be very good.
He’s always going to have his issues in pass pro because he doesn’t have great lateral agility (also I think he may have shorter arms).
He’s made great strides in this area however. It now takes a top 10 interior DL to beat him on occasion, instead of a redshirt sophomore from Purdue.
He will win a starting job. He will surprise people.
Nicely done, and thanks for the research!
Now is it football season yet?
thanks much for putting in this work.
Thanks, I wish I could have gotten to all the games, but they take 1-1.5 hours a pop to write up. Between the rage of losing 2 games of notes, and prospect of having to dump 8 hours in to finish, I decided to just post what I had and move on.
Good stuff man. Thanks for the work!
With that much content it would have taken me 1-1.5 hours to read it. Sometimes less is more?
Did I put you on the spot by mentioning your previous post?
Anyways, thanks for the write-up.
I’ve been meaning to finish but every time I go to start and see the two missing games, I get the urge to play ultimate frisbee with my laptop. So i figured I would just dump what I had in the comments.
So yes, you helped spur this.
This is really good analysis. Thanks.
I’d allow myself to get more excited about the prospect of Tobin starting at G if the Eagles had decided to part ways with Mathis the same time they dumped Todd. Sake of argument – do you think that if Mathis was still here, Tobin could have beaten him out for the starting job?
That’s tough to say. Probably not simply because Mathis is much more consistent, but at this point in his career, he doesn’t really offer anything that Tobin doesn’t except experience.
I think Tobin would have had a good shot of beating out Barbre for the other spot, as Barbre’s best asset is his ability to play LT, LG, RG, RT all at a respectable level.
Upvote for all the optimism because it makes me feel better.
But seriously, great stuff. <3 ur stuffz.
is this even necessary?
I read on the other eagles blogs that the o-line sucks now and chip Kelly is going back to college…
NFLN Says Chip is going back to college because he doesn’t know how to coach grown men. You know, men like Darren Sharper, Greg Hardy, Ray Lewis, Leonard Weaver, La’el Collins, Ray McDonald, Rodney Austin, Justin Cox, Adrian Petersen, Ray Rice, Richie Incognito, Aaron Hernandez, etc.
A study at Duke found that nearly a quarter of NFL players had been arrested for 1 or MORE incidents that were more than “minor” brushes with the law.
Of course, Duke is a ‘college’.
Wait what did Big Weav do wrong? He was a model citizen and a really good player when he played for the Eagles how can he even be mentioned with those other assholes.
Nice work.
As a layman, I’m not high on Tobin so it’s somewhat reassuring that someone more qualified than I sees something in him.
I’ll just leave the memo that the pitchforks and torches will be stored 4 blocks away from your house just in case you’re slightlyyyyyyy wrong. You’ll get a raffle ticket for a Tebow jersey if you’re right though.
Jokes aside, nice analysis as always.
All I want is that when training camp opens, Bradford is a full participant right from the start.. If he is healthy enough to be a full participant from day 1, thru training camp, thru the joint practices with the Raven, and then get thru the preseason unscathed, being a full go all August, I’d get pretty Jacked up for the season…. Really hoping he still doesn’t need to be eased back in to training camp, being held out of certain periods or certain days… If he is healthy enoungh to take the training wheels off, I will get very excited for the start of the year..
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I take it as a good sign that SAM has the confidence to not sigń a lowball extension out of fear for his health, opting to Bet on himself like Maclin did going into the season with out a contract. of Course it’s easier to do for SAM since he made a Killing As a #1 Pick before they implemented the rookie wage scale..
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I’m so beaten down with injury crap , that im Almost expecting Bradford to eased back in, sitting out at times, getting treated with Kiddie gloves after how prudent they were with his workload in minicamps… If training camp opens, and he is a full go, that would be a big jolt of Eagle adrenaline for me… I won’t be overly critical of how he looks in camp. I assume he will need time to get back into the swing of things, especially in a new offense…. But if he proves to be healed, and ready to go, I trust in his natural talent and our coaches ability to make the game easier for our QB that he will be ready to go for september…. I just really don’t want to see our starting QB not being a full participant in training camp
I trust in chips emphasis on Character to the point where I’m not afraid to jinx this like I would have been during past years for talking about it at this point, but the dog days of summer are almost over. We are about two weeks away from the GRIND and beginning of the real preparations for the season and its a pleasure being a fan of players who aren’t getting in trouble acting a fool…
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Players aren’t getting arrested. It’s been a quiet summer and for that im thankful.,If we,even hear anything about our players these days you will typically only heat positive things.. Whether it’s guys away on quiet vacations with their Families like Acho in Rome, or players getting together to train Like the Sanchize flying the WRs out to Cali for some extra work, or guys like Jenkins and BARWIN attending and hosting Charity evens, or guys like Cox/Curry giving back, hosting football camps for children…. It’s been a while since we had to deal with heating about our players acting like trash in the news and I don’t want to take a quiet summer for Granted,,
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Can’t take character for granted. Not when after all the scrutiny in the NFL last year, teams are still losing talent due to not knowing how to act in society:
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it’s bad enough that Justin Hunter has been fighting BUST Label since the Titans drafted him early in round 2 close to where we drafted Ertz, now this donkey has Embarressed himself, the Titans and the NFL getting arrested brawling in Nightclubs, victim is im the hospital with Broken Bones and this donkey is being charged with stabbing, cutting, malicious intent and wounding as well as Felonious assualt.. Prince Charming is most likely going to be cut, and the Titans pissed away a valuable high 2nd round pick from just 3 years ago… Apparently Titans haven’t learned anything since they,rolled the dice on another “Prince Charming” troubled WR Dorriel Green Beckham early in round 2…
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forgiving Papa Bear, Andy Reid was rewarded for giving Justin Cox a 2nd chance by Cox getting himself arrested on Aggrivated Domestic Violence, Burglary of a residence and Tresspassing… Kiss your NFL career goodbye HEE HAW! Hee Haw!
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Injuries are such a big part of this game, and they often impact how entire seasons play out. This game is so physical, you are going to lose important players to injuries. the Summer is like navigating thru a friggin minefield, hoping a player doesn’t take the wrong step and get his,ACL, or Achilles blow up for an entire season… teams already can lose key players during the summer, if you are also in Danger of losing players to suspension because they don’t know how to act in Society, you are decreasing your odds of getting thru the minefield summer without getting your leg Blown off (in other words, losing key players to injuries or suspensions”..
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I find myself holding my breathe in the summer, seeing teams lose key players to injury in Practice and see teams lose players to suspensions for getting arrested this time of year, hoping we can get,thru another day without losing talent..
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So far the sports science department, and training staff has kept players healthy this summer and out of the training room(for the most part), and the Character and Culture of our roster has held up so far, not losing players to drug suspensions or acting like trash and getting themselves arrested… We have about 6 weeks left to navigate the minefield of summer injuries/arrests/Suspensions.. If we can get thru the next 6 weeks unscathed it would be ABSOLUTELY HUGE for this season..
Crazy thought I had while replying to a fellow member.
Is it possible to say that if Bradford stays healthy and has an above average season the Eagles may have the best QB situation in the NFCE?
I really think Romo will start to fall apart shortly. Eli is in decline and has been a turnover machine. Washington should just run the wildcat.
The point is if Bradford replicates what he started in 2013 (check the stats they are impressive) then I think it is very fair to say our Birds have the best QB situation in the NFCE for the future. This is all depending on his health of course which admittedly is a big IF.
On top of that an argument can be made that we have the best D in the NFCE. We already know we have the best ST.
Opinions?
If you ask me I think Bradford’s healthy now.
But when you get two back to back ACL injuries, it’s not surprising to me that they handle him with kit gloves until the training camp at the very least.
I feel Sam will be a full go once training camp begins, just like he’s been saying all along.
It’s the media that has been hyping Sam’s injury more than Tebow’s comeback to the NFL.
This has given Sam the time to really get familiar with Chip’s unique offensive scheme and also time to understand all of the how’s and why’s of the uptempo.
I feel Sam will hit the ground running and his form will return by game 1 or 2 at worst.
Sam knows he has to prove himself to this city, Lurie and Chip, and he will be up to the task.
Sam can do it all IMO and his confidence will build as this team starts to pile up wins.
His has elite arm strength and the accuracy to use it, and with the talent level of our skill players, like Ertz, who is very tall, and Sproles who can get open, and the Three headed backfield we have, Sam won’t need to Superman. He will only need to be a good distributor.
Not having to carry this team will allow for Sam to gain back his confidence very quickly, which could very well lead us to winning games early on, and when we do need him to come up big, I think he will be more than ready.
There are just too many weapons at his disposal and really good depth behind several skill positions.
IMO, Sam will look better than he ever has.
It won’t be long before we all get to see whether he can handle the transition from coming from an inept team, to joining a team on the rise who has performed well with lesser QB’s.
All we needed was a quick thinker who can make all the throws and can manipulate defenses and exploit them with our tempo.
I think Sam is literally going to shatter the average fans expectations and leave us in awe of his god given talent, now that he is an Eagle.
Reading a previous post about Tobin and our current O line situation, I feel even more optimistic about our chances to be great.
I do agree that Bradford will far succeed most fans expectations. Not all but most people that talk trash as far as his in game performances don’t know much about him at all.
When they say he has never put up good numbers I point towards 2013. It’s unfortunate how so much of this fan base is really uneducated regarding him.
Here’s how I see Bradford
Horrible Bradford = Some abomination between bad Foles and bad Cutler
Decent Bradford = Alex Smith with a better arm
Great Bradford = Phillip Rivers
Contrary to some fans belief, I don’t think there ever was a horrible Bradford. Even his rookie season he set records.
I prefer, the “Boogie Fipp’s gunna getcha if you don’t get to sleep!!” method with the one that I made. But hey, whatever works….