Jimmy on Chip

Posted: July 15th, 2015 | Author: | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 115 Comments »

Peter King’s site MMQB is doing a countdown of the 100 most influential people on the 2015 NFL season. Coming in at #3 on that list is none other than our beloved Chip Kelly. Here is the piece by Emily Kaplan.  There are some terrific quotes by Jimmy Johnson.

“When you have one guy making the decisions—like I was in Dallas or Miami, like Bill Belichick is in New England, and now like Chip is—you don’t have a lot of devil’s advocates. You don’t have a lot of people who work for you second-guessing you. If you have a committee involved in the decision-making, 95% of the time, you’re going to be conservative. There’s always going to be one person saying, ‘Oh, I don’t know about this,’ or, ‘Wait, let’s think about that.’ When one guy makes the decision, you take chances. That’s what Chip has done this year.

“I’m a fan of Chip Kelly. I like what he’s doing. The biggest concern I have is that even though they’ve been the healthiest team in the league the last couple years, because of his holistic approach with sports science and nutrition, he’s taking some big risks trading and obtaining players with major injuries. That’s the only concern I have.

“You don’t let media or pundits affect you, but of course you are aware of what they’re saying. It was both comical and hurtful. Even though you found it comical because you knew they had no idea what you were trying to do, nobody wants to be criticized. At times, it would almost feel personal. It had nothing to do with your decision-making, it had to do with the fact that they just didn’t like you—because you rubbed somebody wrong. Maybe you didn’t do right by one of their favorite players, which Chip has done, which I did, which Belichick has done. With Belichick, he has the credibility so people accept it. Late in my career, they began to accept it. With Chip right now, people are not accepting it. Some people are not accepting trading LeSean McCoy. Some people are not accepting cutting Evan Mathis. Until you win big, people are going to criticize you.

“Chip and I have talked a couple of times, and he’s a very private guy; so much of what we discuss should not be shared. But I did give him one piece of advice this year. He wanted to know what it’s like to be the decision maker as well as the coach. I told him this: You have an advantage in the draft because you know these players. You’ve been in a lot of their homes, you’ve watched them play closely. So the draft is when guys like you and I have the advantage. The problem I ran into in Miami (I didn’t have it in Dallas because free agency had just begun) was that during the season, I was so busy that I couldn’t stay on top of all of the things I wanted to: picking up players from the street, making some moves, especially on the bottom end of your roster. You’re so busy prepping with your current team for that week’s game that you can’t do it all by yourself. The job is overwhelming to do it 12 months of the year all by yourself. I found that out. My advice would be to have somebody—and not a group of people, just one person that you trust, that you like, that’s loyal, that’s like-minded—do those type of things. That will help because during the season itself, the job can be a little overwhelming. But in the offseason? The draft and free agency? Take advantage of your talents. You’re good at evaluating players because you did it in college just like I did in college, so that’s where you can shine. But during the season is when you’re going to need a little bit of help.

“Here’s the big question: Do you want to play it safe and be good or do you want to take a chance and be great? If you’re not afraid to fail, you can do some great things in this league. But most people are afraid to fail, so they play it safe. I always liked to take risks because I was always confident in my abilities. I think—no, I know—Chip is confident in his abilities, too.”

Chip isn’t afraid to fail. I know I’ve said that a few times and I’m sure some of you are sick of hearing it. But I can’t stress enough how important that is.

The old axiom in football is that more games are lost than are won. Avoid mistakes and you won’t lose. Joe Paterno preached this. Marty Schottenheimer was a huge advocate in the NFL. Don’t turn the ball over. Avoid penalties. Don’t be afraid to punt. You do win a lot of games if you have some talent and get your players to play it safe. But you won’t win many championships.

That isn’t to say if you suddenly take risks you are going to win. You have to keep them in your arsenal, though. And they can’t be “safe” risks. You don’t go for it on 4th/1 at the opponents 39 and think of that as a risk. If you fail, the opponent is still on his side of the field. Go for it when the other team isn’t expecting it…from your 39. That’s a risk. You make that call because you have prepared your players on how to execute the play properly and think they’ll do it. You expect the play to work, but you’re willing to deal with the circumstances if it fails.

Risk might be a personnel move or a coaching hire. It might involve who you draft or the kind of scheme you run. Kelly has taken plenty of risks since coming to Philly. More have worked than failed, but this year will be the real test with the moves that brought in Sam Bradford, DeMarco Murray, Kiko Alonso, and Byron Maxwell, as well as the non-moves that led to Allen Barbre at LG, a competition at RG and Walter Thurmond playing FS.

Not all of those moves are going to work. And yet if one or two pans out better than hoped, that might help put this team over the hump.


115 Comments on “Jimmy on Chip”

  1. 1 Avery Greene said at 9:03 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    “Scared money don’t win.”

    I think of that quote when I think of CK. He takes risks (calculated) and each one that pays off brings him closer to that goal. I remember a couple years ago Ron Rivera’s job was on the line and the team wasn’t doing well. Then he started taking risks (Riverboat Ron) and his team ended up doing well ending up in the playoffs and a division title.

    Gotta take chances to make things happen.

  2. 2 Media Mike said at 9:08 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    Not a bad theoretical scenario with taking risks, but Riverboat Ron still has a losing record with that jabroni Scam Newton as he QB; we SO don’t need to be the Panthers.

    But other than registering my disgust with Scam Newton; I agree with the “take chances” mindset with a lot of the moves.

  3. 3 Avery Greene said at 9:15 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    Oh yeah, Ron got issues down there. Newton can’t stay healthy it seems, and his GM is doing everything he can to make RR fail (or he’s just a crappy GM).

    Ron had one good year and while I think he’s a decent defensive coordinator (JJ disciple) I don’t want to emulate what’s happening down there.

  4. 4 Media Mike said at 9:18 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    And what’s funny is that he’s still essentially running the D from a schematic design standpoint, so I think he’s a nice person for allowing a certain idiot to have a job and “coordinate” the D.

  5. 5 Media Mike said at 9:06 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    I totally get the sense that Chip isn’t trying to live off of being Marv Lewis and treading water with regular playoff appearances (and losses) w/o any real progress.

    It’ll be an interesting 5 years once Chip is towards the end of his first deal here as head coach. I’d like to see us have moved beyond the 10 win plateau and be entrenched in yearly division title wins and frequent runs through the playoffs.

    My own thought would be that if the team rightfully returns to the division title this year with 11+ wins vs. a soft schedule and wins a home playoff game that it would be time for a contract extension to tack on another 3 years for Chip with revaluations of 2016 and 17 with 2018,19, and 20 added on for a new total of $40 million over the 5 years.

  6. 6 Media Mike said at 9:10 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    Hey Jimmy; can you hook up Chip with the secret on how to pull this type of move off?

    The trade[edit]

    Players/Draft Picks Received by the Minnesota Vikings

    RB Herschel Walker

    Dallas’s 3rd round pick – 1990 (54) (Mike Jones)

    San Diego’s 5th round pick – 1990 (116) (Reggie Thornton)

    Dallas’s 10th round pick – 1990 (249) (Pat Newman)

    Dallas’s 3rd round pick – 1991 (68) (Jake Reed)

    Players/Draft Picks Received by the Dallas Cowboys

    LB Jesse Solomon

    LB David Howard

    CB Issiac Holt

    RB Darrin Nelson (traded to San Diego after he refused to report to Dallas)

    DE Alex Stewart

    Minnesota’s 1st round pick in 1990 (21) (traded this pick along with pick (81) for pick (17) from Pittsburgh to draft Emmitt Smith)

    Minnesota’s 2nd round pick in 1990 (47) (Alexander Wright)

    Minnesota’s 6th round pick in 1990 (158) (traded to New Orleans, who drafted James Williams)

    Minnesota’s 1st round pick in 1991 (conditional) – (12) (Alvin Harper)

    Minnesota’s 2nd round pick in 1991 (conditional) – (38) (Dixon Edwards)

    Minnesota’s 2nd round pick in 1992 (conditional) – (37) (Darren Woodson)

    Minnesota’s 3rd round pick in 1992 (conditional) – (71) (traded to New England, who drafted Kevin Turner)

    Minnesota’s 1st round pick in 1993 (conditional) – (13) (traded to Philadelphia Eagles, and then to the Houston Oilers, who drafted Brad Hopkins)[1]

  7. 7 Flying B-Dawk said at 10:09 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    A guy at work had Jimmy Johnson’s book “Turning the Thing Around” and he had me read the chapter on that trade. I was too young to remember it, but apparently (at least according to the book) at the time more people in the media thought that JJ got fleeced in that trade. It wasn’t until later that people realized what a haul the Cowboys got for just one player. The key to the whole thing was the conditional picks. Minnesota thought that Dallas needed the players they took, so they weren’t worried about the conditional picks they offered. In reality, Johnson didn’t even want those players and he always intended on making sure that they got all of the conditional picks. Sounds like something Hinkie would do

  8. 8 xmbk said at 11:02 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    He had to cut most of those players in order to get the conditionals. That was the key to where he hoodwinked Minn.

  9. 9 D3FB said at 7:14 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    Build time machine.

    Go back 25 years.

    Exploit dumb GM.

    Use trade caveats in heretofore unseen manner.

  10. 10 A_T_G said at 9:28 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    Put another way, math and logic differentiate between necessary and sufficient conditions. (And 90% of people stop reading here.)

    Necessary conditions are required for the desired outcome to follow, but it does not always follow. Showering is a necessary condition for successful date.

    Sufficient conditions guarantee that the outcome will follow, but do not always occur before the outcome. Going down a water slide is a sufficient condition for getting wet.

    Risk taking is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition to win a championship. We hope that Chip’s talent is a sufficient condition.

  11. 11 BlindChow said at 10:41 AM on July 15th, 2015:


  12. 12 Michael Winter Cho said at 12:34 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Kind of a weird lecture 🙂

    I think Chip’s shown he has sufficient coaching talent, but we don’t know if he can effectively be a GM. There appears to be a high variance in his personnel moves (boom/bust).

    Most of it will probably come down to whether he can manufacture a high-functioning QB.

  13. 13 A_T_G said at 12:36 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    So you are saying a high-functioning QB is both a necessary and a sufficient condition for success?

  14. 14 Media Mike said at 9:42 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    So the actual “risk” players positions on the roster right now would be;

    – Marcus Smith taken in the first round
    – LG position
    – WR corps
    – QB

    I’m confident Smith will improve and the WRs will be good. I think QB will be more likely that Bradford has a good year than he has a bad one, but I’m terrified of the lack of quality at guard.

  15. 15 EagleNebula said at 10:09 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    I though Barbre was the LG and there is competion for the RG. Also S and CB are only half filled and much larger question marks than WR corp/back up OLB

  16. 16 Media Mike said at 1:55 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I’m aware Barbre is who they have penciled in at LG, I simply think he’s a “?” at best. I was expecting RG to need new blood because Herremans was stealing money last year and needed to be cut.

  17. 17 EagleNebula said at 2:21 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    My point was that I am more concerned about RG than LG. But both guard positions have ? as of right now.

  18. 18 xmbk said at 11:06 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    It’s hard for G play to wreck a team. Not impossible, but if I had to pick a position to be weak at, it would be G. That said, I think we’ll be ok on the OL as long as we have some stability.

  19. 19 CrackSammich said at 12:16 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    “but if I had to pick a position to be weak at…”

    That’s an interesting thought experiment. It’d be hard not to go for one of the specialists first- LS, P, K. you can almost entirely eliminate them by going for it every time, though not ideal. Maybe a position we don’t use like FB? Besides that, I’d say RB, G, NB, or ILB.

  20. 20 Avery Greene said at 12:24 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    We’ve seen how bad a K can be to a team (read: Henery). ST is really important and not having guys that can do the job will cost you games.

    ILB hurts, and we felt that last year when Kendricks went out, then Ryans and Matthews/Acho had to fill in.

    This is an area where I don’t think I can choose. The weak link in anything is exploitable. Football is the ultimate team game and if everyone isn’t at least sound, then the rest can come apart.

    I’d say I’m not choosing because it’s impossible, but an interesting thought experiment nonetheless.

  21. 21 CrackSammich said at 12:36 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    You must be the least fun person ever to play bang/kill/marry with. Hilary Clinton, Martha Stewart, Barbara Walters. GO!

  22. 22 Avery Greene said at 12:39 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I actually spit my soda out because of this comment. Well done sir!

  23. 23 xmbk said at 1:40 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Let’s ignore ST and positions we don’t use. RB and ILB seem more impactful and easier to take advantage of if weak. Nickel isn’t technically a starter, but also seems easier to take advantage of.

  24. 24 D3FB said at 7:11 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    Easiest positions to “hide”?

    For the schemes we run?


    In that order

  25. 25 BlindChow said at 10:39 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    “Most Influential” was a really poor choice of words for the title of MMQB list. It certainly applies to Chip, but RG3 was number 28. Sam Bradford was number 23. Who exactly are those two influencing?

    It’s more a collection of the most interesting storylines of the upcoming season.

  26. 26 Rambler said at 10:40 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    I think both of them are influencing more purchases of knee braces.

  27. 27 Ark87 said at 1:28 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I agree, it doesn’t seem to fit the term influential as it is usually thought of, it seems to be on who does the immediate future of the NFL most hinge on. Whether Bradford is healthy and ends up being a franchise QB completely changes the shape of the NFC, RG3 has the physical tools to be special and can finally break the Redskins out of their multiple decades long slump, or play a major roll in keeping them in the dumpster. My best guess.

  28. 28 Flying B-Dawk said at 10:57 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    Chip is the best kind of risk taker, someone who is willing to take risks, but someone that understands the odds. Most coaches are so afraid to lose and be criticized in the media, that they won’t do the statistically right thing to do out of fear of failure. The ones that do take risks “go with their gut” and have no logical backing for their decisions.

    I think Chip has already identified things that NFL people do that are actually fighting against the odds because of public perception or conventional thought. I truly believe that acquiring all of these injured players could be an example of that.

  29. 29 Avery Greene said at 12:00 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    He said something in an interview (forget which one) when they were talking about practice time for players – the whole Cary Williams thing. He said (roughly), “It’s based on science…” Everything CK does is based on data obtained through science. The injured players I think is also an indication of that.

    He really (and I do too now) puts a lot of stock in the data on how athletes perform, how to recover, how to train, and what keeps the body in peak condition. SB’s medical care would be the same with any NFL team, but how they handle recovery is different. The whole reconditioning thing is not something all teams ascribe to. But you’re right about calculated risks and that’s the way he finds his edge.

    Good article here about reconditioning.

  30. 30 Ben Hert said at 11:23 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    For some reason, Walter Thurmond is one of the most compelling offseason storylines for me. Really interested to see where it goes…for some indescribable reason, I have a great feeling about him.

  31. 31 Avery Greene said at 11:53 AM on July 15th, 2015:

    It’s the coffee, it makes everyone feel good about everything. j/k

    I think it is too, because if he’s just average that helps out tremendously. I also think Couplin because CK mentioned him as a possibility.

  32. 32 OldDocZOMGamazeballs said at 7:02 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Couplin is the only guy I can think of whose YouTube highlight reel makes him look sucky.

    There are some physical gifts there but everything else is awful. If you can even get him pointing in the right direction you’re doing well. Would be nice if he panned out but I’d make him even money to break Momah’s unheralded record for greatest Hype/Talent ratio in the history of preseasons.

  33. 33 Mike Giongo said at 10:26 PM on July 17th, 2015:

    Agree. I think that Thurmond and Jenkins can be a serviceable starting safety duo this year. Health is my only worry, but it is a significant worry, as things get dicey awfully fast in the defensive backfield if either goes down with injury.

  34. 34 Avery Greene said at 12:27 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    So Kempski wrote an article about the guys the Eagles signed/drafted at CB. All of them ranked in the top 6 in Pass Breakups. JaCorey Shepherd was #1 on the list.


  35. 35 Dominik said at 8:31 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    Which is good data for the next draft. Or FAs. Always interesting to see parameters where you can at least assume it’s important for our Front Office.

    If you see a 5’11+ CB with high character grades and who’s good at Pass Breakups, you can assume he will be on our list – maybe even pretty high. Now, I’m not saying they don’t care about the 40 time, f.e., but maybe it’s not THAT important compared to how other teams view it for DBs.

    But of course, nobody knows, it’s just an educated guess from JK.

  36. 36 Ark87 said at 12:38 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Just to be clear, on the field Chip has been one of the more conservative decision-makers in the nfl. I’m not saying that because he likes to run the ball. Whether it’s not adding wrinkles to a gameplan because they catch your team just as unprepared as their team, letting off the gas in the third quarter, or choosing when to punt, he has called it relatively safe. Off the field he challenges all the conventions, this is his primary risk. If he’s right he’s a genius and changes the way the game is played. If it doesn’t he goes down as another college whiz kid.

    Every decision is a dice roll, the difference is conventional decisions are more easily forgiven by the most people because they would have made the same wrong decision, where as if Bradford ends up on IR at some point you can be sure his nose will be rubbed in it, “duh, of course, everyone saw that coming and you’re and idiot”

    The truth is I know Chip is a smart guy that does everything he does for a well thought-out reason. He isn’t flipping a coin or trusting his gut to tell him to go against convention. His decisions are the best decisions he can make based on the information he has and believes in, and I can only hold it against him if he went against that, otherwise I’m happy.

  37. 37 Avery Greene said at 1:27 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I think he was a bit more risky in his first season, but his displeasure in his RB-play and QB-play made him more conservative last year. Whether it’s OL injuries, TOs, or other injuries – last year I don’t think he took many chances because he wasn’t comfortable doing it.

    I think we’ll see more risk-taking this season.

  38. 38 Ark87 said at 1:45 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I think I agree with that, especially when it came to throwing different formation looks.

  39. 39 Michael Winter Cho said at 1:58 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    One of the reason stat geeks liked Chip before he came from the NFL is he was aggressive on 2-point conversions and 4th down attempts. You are probably aware that most NFL coaches are leaving points on the field in terms of Expected Value because of this (according to stat geek analysis).

    However, in the NFL, he has been pretty conservative–disappointingly so, perhaps.

  40. 40 Ark87 said at 2:00 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    yes, expected value charts especially, advanced metrics guys like Bill Barnwell at Grantland have been disappointed with, good call.

  41. 41 Flying B-Dawk said at 2:48 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I think last season the Eagle’s expected value chart did not favor going for 2. Our running game couldn’t get going, we had erratic qb play, and Parkey was money. Chip, being scientific, isn’t going to just go for 2 for the sake of going for 2. If the expected value isn’t there, don’t do it.

    However, the offseason moves could mean a change in the expected value for this season. If the expected value does change, I think Chip could end up going for 2 a lot, especially if they run the ball like I think they will.

  42. 42 Michael Winter Cho said at 4:21 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    From my point of view, it wasn’t the D that was the problem but the O. In Oregon, he could steamroll everyone, but the offense was really quite mediocre last year, adjusting for pace.

    I hope for a more dynamic ground attack this year. Damn, I want to see Murray rolling people!

  43. 43 Jernst said at 5:47 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    That’s a very good point. The expected value charts are based off of the average expected outcome for the average team going against the average opponent. But, it’s not to be followed by every team in every situation without adjusting to said factors. If a team is below average in short yardage situations and facing a defense that’s above average defending those same situations you must adjust to that. You can’t just say the expected value chart says we’d expect slightly more points doing X rather than Y therefore it’s always prudent to do X. It’s great on a macro level and proves that, as a whole, coaches are being more conservative than they should be, but is less useful when applied to a single situation in a single game. There’s just too many other variables that need to be considered to take it as the sole decision making tool in a specific situation.

  44. 44 b3nz0z said at 3:47 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    i was bummed about this too, but in the spirit of trusting him, my proposed explanation is that he just didn’t trust his guys to get it done. you need full confidence in your D if you’re going to risk flipping the field by skipping the punt. you need full confidence in your short yardage game if you’re going to go for two or go for it on 4th and 2. maybe now that it’s more “his guys” we’ll see him roll the dice more often?

  45. 45 MattE said at 1:59 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    You have 0% success rate on 100% of the chances you don’t take.

  46. 46 Media Mike said at 2:05 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Why take a chance?


  47. 47 Nailed it! said at 3:11 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    5 Year 70 Million for Dez with 45 Mil guaranteed.

    So 14 Mil per year. I think that is a pretty good deal for Dallas actually.

  48. 48 RobNE said at 3:16 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    does that keep Dallas in cap hell?

  49. 49 Nailed it! said at 3:17 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I don’t follow Dallas’s cap that closely but I can’t imagine it really helps their situation.

  50. 50 wee2424 said at 9:11 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    If I were a Dallas fan I would be concerned about the cap. Is it absolutely horrible? No. Romo will get restructured again shortly.

    As Romo starts to fall apart at some point soon and if they have a bad draft or two they could really start to sink. They have a VERY small window that started to close as soon as they lost in the play offs.

  51. 51 Avery Greene said at 3:19 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    $14 million a year. That’s puts him #2 behind CJ’s $16 million a year.

  52. 52 Nailed it! said at 3:20 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I don’t think the difference between CJ and Dez’s talents are 2 million apart.

  53. 53 Avery Greene said at 3:21 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Me either. I wonder if he gave the Cowboys a hometown discount. I thought he’d get $15 mill a year w/ $50 mill guaranteed.
    Either way, they kept their guy.

  54. 54 Bert's Bells said at 3:38 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    It may have been take this deal or play under the tag (or hold out).

    The 45 million guaranteed must look good compared to the uncertainty of it all.

    Also, TX doesn’t have income tax so he’s banking more than CJ in Detroit probably.

  55. 55 wee2424 said at 9:08 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Very good point about the tax.

  56. 56 MagsBirdieBaby said at 6:50 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    More guaranteed? Better incentives?

  57. 57 Avery Greene said at 7:00 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I would have thought a bit more guaranteed and a bit more yearly.

  58. 58 wee2424 said at 9:07 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Yeah, I thought Cowboys would have gotten hit harder.

  59. 59 wee2424 said at 9:07 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    CJ a few years ago yes. Now it’s more even. Let’s not forget that Dez did have an outstanding season as far as TDs (1/4 against us), but people forget to mention he didn’t even crack 1000 yards receiving.

    In a way Maclin had an even better year, and I think it’s possible to say that if it weren’t for QB and OL woes that it would be widely known that Maclin would have had a better year.

  60. 60 Flying B-Dawk said at 3:51 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I would not for a few reasons:

    1) There are way too many really good receivers to justify paying that much to one of them. For the record I wouldn’t pay Calvin that much either.

    2) Name a dominant wide receiver that’s won a superbowl recently… They haven’t, and my theory behind that is..

    3) In traffic networks there’s something called “Braess’ paradox”, which has been adapted for sports called the “Ewing Theory”. Sometimes in team sports losing your best player, especially for one game, actually increases your chance to win. The reason being that instead of the team being reliant on one player, all of the team has to play together, thus making it harder to defend. A prime example of this is an offense with Brady or Peyton at QB. They throw to scrub receivers half the time, which keeps the defense on their toes. I’d rather use that money to have a SOLID group of 3-4 receivers than have one standout.

    4) Despite how well behaved he’s been the past few seasons, he’s like a ticking time bomb when it comes to him doing something stupid. In fact, he probably did, ESPN just couldn’t get their hands on that tape.

  61. 61 wee2424 said at 4:01 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    The example for the Patriots does not work because they have a HOF QB throwing them the ball. That is their best player. You take that away and it is a different story.

  62. 62 Flying B-Dawk said at 4:18 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I 100% agree with you about taking out QBs, because they are FORCED to touch the ball on basically every play. The whole idea of the theory is that when you have a disproportionate amount of plays through one path, it’s not as efficient. The theory is based on basketball teams and the percentage of plays going through each player, but I think receivers could still apply. If 80% of your passing offense is going through one player, it’s detrimental to your team, even if that player is Jerry Rice.

    As far as the Patriots having a hall of fame QB, that actually supports what I’m trying to say. Having good receivers is not important. What’s important is spreading the ball around so the defense can’t just double team your passing game away. The Pats, Seahawks, and GB are probably the best three teams in the league and none of those teams have a stud Calvin/Dez type receiver.

  63. 63 wee2424 said at 4:26 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I edited my comment while you were replying because what I initially said may have been flawed.

    I understand 100% what you are saying, and I disagree and agree on it at the same time.

    I agree because it has been shown to work. I disagree because in most teams it will not work. The reasoning is because the large majority of teams do not have the QB to pull it off. You can only take this theory and apply it to teams that have a QB good enough to pass to sub par WRs.

  64. 64 Michael Winter Cho said at 4:19 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Another way to look at the Ewing theory is it sometimes shows the most famous/highest scoring player on the team is not the best player and actually is hurting the team.

    In the modern NBA, players like Derrick/Anthony/Kobe, guys with amazing skills but sacrifice team efficiency for individual glory/paychecks.

    I suspected LaMarcus Aldridge might be that type, but since Portland blew up the team, there’s no chance of seeing it play out.

  65. 65 Avery Greene said at 6:58 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    It’ll be interesting to see what he does with SA. Already a good team, but if his ego isn’t in check it could mess up the chemistry there.

  66. 66 anon said at 8:35 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    The djax theory? the iverson theory? the kobe theory, he carmello theory?

  67. 67 Media Mike said at 7:55 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Yes. Because I can recoup that bonus money if Dez messes up off of the field.

    Dez is somewhere between the 2nd and 6th best WR in the league; he’s worth 5 / $70 mil with ease considering the cap is going to keep going up by good clips each year.

  68. 68 Nailed it! said at 3:18 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Dez Bryant Deal: $70M: 27th in the NFL, 2nd among WR $14M per year, 28th in the NFL, 2nd among WR $45M g’teed: 13th in the NFL, 2nd among WR— Spotrac (@spotrac) July 15, 2015

  69. 69 Michael Winter Cho said at 4:15 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    So, just hypothetically speaking, would you trade for a rookie QB who hasn’t signed his team’s offer because of a sticking point about “offsets”? Or would such a player be disqualified on account of #culture?

  70. 70 Bert's Bells said at 4:37 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    If he doesn’t sign, he re-enters the draft next year.

    Plus no $$$ in the rookie pool.

    Even as a hypothetical, it’s impossible.

  71. 71 Michael Winter Cho said at 5:14 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    What if a deal were worked out so that “the player” signed with the team that drafted him, on condition that an agreed-upon trade were executed with the Eagles?

  72. 72 Bert's Bells said at 5:25 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Does this deal also entail re-negotiating the CBA to give unlimited cap allotment to rookies?

    There’s no way.

  73. 73 CrackSammich said at 5:31 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    You’re assuming that his motivation is to get off the Titans and not specifically the offset language. He’s not the first 1st Rd QB to hold out over it. Tannehill did it a few years back.

  74. 74 Michael Winter Cho said at 7:36 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Not assuming, no, but just wondering if it could bring it back into play. You know, like:


  75. 75 CrackSammich said at 5:30 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    If Mariota wasn’t willing to play for the Titans, or the Titans wanted to trade him, they are seriously mishandling this situation. This is not the type of thing somebody gets traded over.

  76. 76 Bert's Bells said at 6:19 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    He has two options:

    1) play for the Titans
    2) re-enter the draft next year and likely get much less than the #2 slot.

    In option 2 he can hit free agency a year earlier, so he’s got that going for him.

    Of course, he’d lose that year of playing time so…

  77. 77 CrackSammich said at 6:32 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    He can enter free agency a year earlier relative to the beginning of the contract. There’s no difference between a 5 year contract starting this year and a 4 year contract starting next year in real time.

  78. 78 Sean Stott said at 6:19 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    The NFLPA neutered the money rookies are getting, which is kind of an odd dynamic – of course the veterans would rather shift the money to themselves, and the rookies don’t even get to vote on it.

    That being said, Mariota is probably worth a lot more than any amount of money they can legally give him, so why not hold out for the best possible contract that will still be underpaying him?

  79. 79 Media Mike said at 7:53 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Simply put, rookies don’t deserve a vote. They need to earn their stripes. Seniority rules and everything else sucks.

  80. 80 Sean Stott said at 7:57 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Kind of like the UAW two-tier wage system?

  81. 81 Media Mike said at 8:04 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I’m not familiar, but UAW work is a 30 to 40 year career, NFL guys have very limited windows to earn that were being ruined by runaway rookie deals that were hogging cap space.

    I really think the rank and file in the NFL needs to work on getting the minimum salaries raised across the board as best they can. That would really help the entire rank and file rather than just the QBs.

  82. 82 Sean Stott said at 9:23 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    the funny thing about the veteran minimum is it has pushed the older kickers and puntera out of the league because the young guys are so much cheaper. never a perfect solution.

  83. 83 Media Mike said at 9:37 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I think I’d find it more ideal if the vet minimum raised up higher, but the 2nd through 7th round guys had steep increases in their pay as well. That might might it significantly less “easy” to cheap out on a vet for a special teamer.

    I just can’t stand seeing guys come in as first rounders and making top of the league money. I’m glad they ended that.

  84. 84 Jarock said at 6:25 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    I tend to agree with this sentiment, but in the NFL, the team has absolute control over you for three or more years. A rookie who comes in as a late pick and absolutely lights it up has no leverage whatsoever under the current agreement. To make matters worse for the now young veteran, the his career longevity in the NFL is likely to be shorter than any other major sport.

    The response many will make is, “great players are going to get paid anyways.” This is typically true, but it’s the solid but unexceptional players who really got robbed by the current deal. Economically, it just doesn’t make sense for a team to retain a player who you know is never going to be more than decent when you can pay a rookie half or less than what you are required to pay him. Thus the lack of depth on most teams.

    I absolutely agree that rookies should have to come in and prove they can play in the NFL before being offered millions. I do wish the NFLPA had fought for some type of built in escalators for performance above and beyond current salary or for earlier FA. The other bone I have with the current system is that players who clearly are not superstars receive the franchise tag every year.

  85. 85 Media Mike said at 7:52 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    The Titans are being f-ing embarrassing. Why are they retarding the growth of the #2 overall draft pick because they’re trying to be cheap over offset language. If Mariota is playing somewhere else in the next 5 years after being cut by the Titans; they f’d up a lot worse than offset money.

  86. 86 Anders said at 4:28 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    Problem is, no team has any rookie scale money left to sign Mariota. So unless there is a sign and trade with 0 signing bonuses, there is zero ways Mariota is traded

  87. 87 Nailed it! said at 5:26 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    What is crazy to me is that Maclin is the 6th highest paid receiver in the NFL.

  88. 88 TypicalDouche said at 6:17 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Its more like insane that the 6th highest paid WR in the NFL has one 1000 yard season under his belt and may not have another one in his career.

  89. 89 Jarock said at 6:15 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    Especially with Alex Smith as his QB.

  90. 90 Sean Stott said at 6:17 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Yea but he was pretty amazing last year. Did he have a single drop? It became almost a given that he would clutch that 3rd and long almost out of bounds dragging his two feet.

  91. 91 Avery Greene said at 7:30 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    So Demaryius Thomas got almost the exact same deal as Dez. Makes you wonder about collusion.

  92. 92 botto said at 8:12 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    who would you take?

  93. 93 Media Mike said at 8:16 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Dez. DT is good, but Dez is better.

  94. 94 Insomniac said at 10:40 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Dez is better at getting the ball in the air. DT is way better at YAC. It’s literally what flavor of WR you prefer but for this offense and team? DT is the better fit.

  95. 95 Media Mike said at 11:23 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Dez looked good at YAC vs. POS Chung in the 2nd game in 2013 if I remember correctly.

  96. 96 Insomniac said at 3:05 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    Using google image for dez bryant vs patrick chung..yea those were definitely awful memories.

  97. 97 Avery Greene said at 9:18 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    DT at least from what I’ve seen. I’m all about the culture fit. MMIke is right that Dez is better tho.

  98. 98 Sean Stott said at 9:25 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    you have to love bryants work ethic tho. that guy won’t leave a single inch on the table.

  99. 99 Insomniac said at 10:44 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    DT isn’t a slouch either. He didn’t learn how to run routes in college and now he’s a top 5 WR or arguably a top 3 WR.

  100. 100 TypicalDouche said at 12:26 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    Antonio Brown

  101. 101 D3FB said at 7:01 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    Thomas. Talent is equivalent and DT is cleaner from the off the field stand point.

  102. 102 Media Mike said at 8:20 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I have no proof of this, but if Dallas went as high as 5 years / $70 million for Dez while they had the leverage under the cap I’d venture a guess that somebody would have paid 7 years / $105 million or 6 years $90 million for him.

  103. 103 anon said at 8:24 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Yeah I that that builds in “Dez Risk” but only $23m guaranteed, $20m of it in signing bonus, J. Thomas got $35m guaranteed w/ guaranteed $ in each year. D. Thomas turned down a 100m deal b/c it had no guarantees in final 2 years.

  104. 104 Birds4Life said at 11:53 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    But Dez’ deal bumps up to $45 mil in guaranteed money if he is still on the team the 5th day of the new league year in 2016. And Dez is going to get cut next year.

  105. 105 GEAGLE said at 9:21 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    I’m not sure if the media is reporting this or not, but MS2 has been training with,Chuck Smith, specialist at DefensiveLine Inc, Training and consulting football coaches and pass rushers since 2002.. master skill DL/OLB

  106. 106 Iggles Nation said at 10:21 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Get us some Lombardis Chip

  107. 107 Insomniac said at 10:53 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    If you had your pick of choice who would have you signed today?

    Justin Houston – 6 years,101 mil, 52.5 mil guaranteed (makes the Suh deal look even more stupid now)

    Dez Bryant – 5 years,70 mil, 45 mil guaranteed

    Demaryious Thomas – 5 years,70 mil, 43.5 mil guaranteed

    I still have to go with Houston. That guy is like 1.b behind Watt in terms of pass rushing. Cox and Houston on one side? RIP opposing QBs.

  108. 108 Media Mike said at 11:25 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Nothing like a trail of dead and broken QBs.

    I’d go with Houston as well.

  109. 109 Joe Minx said at 11:41 PM on July 15th, 2015:

    Cox and Houston on one side? RIP opposing QBs.

    Why must you force me to dream undreamable dreams?

  110. 110 Anders said at 4:24 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    I go Houston, but Dez is right behind. I think Thomas is slightly overrated.

  111. 111 Insomniac said at 6:48 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    Quite the opposite for me actually. They’re both monsters though. The only WR that I feel is slightly overrated is Jordy Nelson and AJ Green.

  112. 112 D3FB said at 7:00 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    We have a top 5 front seven. Houston would make that the best front seven in football.

  113. 113 ac134spectre said at 1:52 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    What ever else happens with the team, you have to note the guy makes moves and moves. I think if the LB moves pay off, and you get decent play from the couple interior guys, the defense could be really awesome.

    So many years of Andy Reid, everyone is still shifting gears into dealing with Chip and how he thinks. Plus running a 5-2 defense… LBs.

    The keys for the team should be good play on first and second down, lead to long 3rd down and get the offense back on the field.

    Safety though… still need safety play to clean up the secondary.

  114. 114 ac134spectre said at 1:59 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    Oh, saw the headline on interesting deshawn stat. Plus about Herschel Walker.

    Teams get way behind and opposing defenses start to play soft defense. So, you can get a lot of stats throwing underneath and getting YAC, or rushing the ball and eating up your clock. The other thing you get are desperate chucks deep. So, you see a lot of cheap yards for a WR.

    A bad team, with meh QB and bad defense can make a really great pick for fantasy. The bad team is playing to be less embarrassed, trying to run out the clock and just feeds the ball to the RB.

    Anyhow, the bad team thing you start to see a lot of turn overs with the deep desperation moves. A team that has defensive struggles can cause this too. So, it causes a lot of statistical things to decouple from what success is.

    Think about all the times the Eagles picked players from a bad team over the years. How often did that work out?

  115. 115 anon said at 2:09 AM on July 16th, 2015:

    “Free agent OG Evan Mathis expects to begin serious contract talks with teams “in a week or two.”
    Mathis expects negotiations with potential suitors to “ramp up” as training camp approaches. “Exactly what my options are aren’t as clear as they will be in a week or two,” Mathis said. The Miami Herald reports the Dolphins have “at least some degree of interest” in Mathis, but most NFL decision makers are currently on vacation. Training camps open in a week and a half.”