Disaster Scenarios
Posted: June 29th, 2017 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 98 Comments »
Every summer Jimmy Bama does his dumpster fire series. He writes out 10 reasons that each of the NFC East teams could be a dumpster fire in the upcoming season. Jimmy put out his pieces this week.
Jimmy is at his best when he can rip players and teams so, to steal a line from him, that is some first class journalizin’.
Let’s talk about some potential concerns with the Eagles. For me, there are three areas that stand out.
- CB play
- Doug Pederson
- Carson Wentz
***
The Eagles don’t need the current crew of corners to turn into Troy/Bobby/Al, but they do need them to at least be functional starters. There is no guarantee that will happen. Patrick Robinson has been a solid starter in the past, but he also has had injuries issues and has struggled at times. Jalen Mills showed promise last year, but is being expected to start and play much better this year. Rasul Douglas was a backup for West Virginia in 2015 and now is challenging for a starting role in the NFL.
There are other players, notably Aaron Grymes, who could step up and play well, but there aren’t any foundational pieces to build around. That makes things challenging for the coaches and the Safeties.
You don’t need shutdown corners to win in the NFL, but this is a passing league. You need players who can get the job done on a somewhat consistent basis. The Eagles hope they have those players.
***
You need good coaching to win in the NFL. And finding good coaches is hard. You can be a great NFL assistant like Gus Bradley and fail. You can be a great college coach and offensive genius like Chip Kelly and still fail.
Doug Pederson has an odd track record. He’s been around a lot of good players and coaches, but just hasn’t done enough on his own to make you feel confident that he is definitely the man for the job. He might be.
Or he might not be.
The pressure will be tremendous this year as Pederson tries to turn the Eagles into a winning team. How will he respond? How will the team respond? Last year was about laying the foundation. You could live with mistakes because of the rookie QB and coach. There was a lot of learning to be done.
That won’t fly this year. The Eagles need to show improvement. That means winning at least 8 games and probably needing to finish with a winning record. That could bring out the best in Pederson, but could also make him desperate if the team gets off to a slow start or has a midseason losing streak. Pederson is still very much a mystery. The way he handles the 2017 season will tell us a lot about his future.
Pederson brought the emotional intelligence to the job that owner Jeffrey Lurie wanted. Pederson has gotten the team back on track and seemed to push the right buttons last year. This season is going to be challenging. The team is more talented, but we have no clue if Pederson is a good coach and is the right man to get this team to win games on a consistent basis.
***
Wentz has big time potential. Watch this breakdown by Pederson and you see the raw skills to be a really good NFL QB.
The problem is that history is full of talented QBs who struggled. Nick Foles posted all-time great numbers in 2013 and then looked like a different guy less than a calendar year later. Everything came together for him in 2013 and he made a ton of big plays. Foles looked more like the real Nick Foles in 2014. He’s still talented and has his moments, but isn’t a guy you want at the center of your franchise.
Bobby Hoying showed promise in his second year and then completely fell apart after that. A.J. Feeley showed promise as a young QB, but over time proved he wasn’t meant to be a starter.
Vince Young went 31-19 as a starting QB for the Titans, but that wasn’t enough to keep his job. RGIII had one of the great rookie seasons in league history, but injuries and organizational chaos ruined his career. There was a time when Colin Kapernick looked like he might change the game of football, but things have gone completely sideways for him. Blake Bortles threw for 35 TDs and 4,400 yards in 2015, but looked awful at times in 2016. A good, or even great, season doesn’t ensure long term success.
Wentz must build on what he showed last year. He has to learn from his mistakes. The team will expect him to make more plays and fewer mistakes this year. That kind of pressure can get to some young QBs.
I believe in Carson Wentz. But I also believed in Bobby Hoying. There are no guarantees in the NFL.
***
I didn’t mention injuries because that is such an obvious choice.
***
One thing Jimmy didn’t mention is…well it’s hard to wrap up in one phrase. Chemistry/confidence. Call that intangibles, maybe?
The Eagles added talent this year. But Alshon Jeffery, LeGarrette Blount, Tim Jernigan, Chris Long, Patrick Robinson and some others are here on one-year deals. These are high character players and I don’t expect any issues, but there is the possibility. They want to win, but also would like good contracts next year. That means they need good game tape and good stats.
Brent Celek, Jason Peters, Jon Dorenbos, Darren Sproles and Donnie Jones have played a combined 237 seasons between them (loose estimate). They want to win games. They want to get to the playoffs and have success. They aren’t interested in building for the future. They want to win now. Will they have the patience to deal with young players?
Sidney Jones is the team’s most talented corner. He’s coming off an injury. Jones might push to play, ASAP. The team sees him as a 5-year asset. They want him on the field, but will also think big picture. They aren’t going to rush Jones, which could bug Jones and other players who think he could help right away, especially at such a vulnerable position.
Players like Jordan Matthews, Mychal Kendricks, and Vinny Curry have odd situations. Matthews wants to stay. Kendricks wants to play. Curry wants to make plays so he can keep his job. Will their situations affect their teammates?
The Eagles are confident right now. They won 7 games with a rookie QB, rookie coach, tough schedule and five different guys playing RT. That’s not easy. The roster is more talented this year. The players know the schemes. The coaches know the players. Confidence is high.
What happens if the Eagles stumble out of the gate? That would happen, with 4 of 6 games on the road to open the season. All the changes from last year brought out energy and excitement, plus kept expectations somewhat down. This year there will be tougher expectations and the newness is gone. It is time to make plays and come up big in winning moments. Playing tough or coming up just short won’t be accepted this year.
Chemistry problems and confidence issues could be factors this year. What happens if the team loses confidence in Pederson, Wentz or itself? Part of winning is expecting to win. If you constantly expect something bad to happen, it usually will.
I like this Eagles team and expect them to be good, but you do have to acknowledge that things could go wrong.
It will be interesting (and hopefully fun) to see which of the NFC East teams does become a dumpster fire this year.
_
I have the same concerns/questions. To sort of sum it up into a final concern. I think this team has a lot of question marks in big places. The more question marks you have, the luckier you have to be to have a good season. Question marks tend to split pretty evenly, half the FA’s will work out instead of all of them. Either Wentz or Pederson will be a disappointment. 1 CB will be a pleasant surprise, the rest will be garbage or hurt, etc etc.
But when you have a lot of unknowns there is fair excitement. If everything goes right and you land on the jackpot, maybe you get to be the 2015 Panthers, but if everything goes wrong you’re the 2016 Panthers. Fingers crossed!
I’ve always assumed things would break 50/50 on free agents, but then look at our corners. We kept signing JAGs, and I kept expecting nice, mid level JAGs, but then they’re bottom of the pile every time. Even the expensive ones have been awful. Maybe I’ve just been burned too many times, but at this point I expect Robinson to literally light on fire and melt into the turf on a play in week 3, with Mills taking credit for the pass breakup.
I found the clip. You will notice Robinson in the background, behind Mills.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d317aa6fa94c34e18f8e770bcf4c80961252bee953f3d62f504ee2dbca12606f.gif
The reason I’m hopeful that the team will take a big step forward this year is the depth of the offensive and defensive lines. I think excellent liBlounne play can make up for mistakes. The improved WR corps will help Wentz take the next step and Blount and Alshon will improve our play in the red zone. Pedersen has been good off the field. I like his aggressiveness on the field. He will have better tools to work with and will open up the playbook. There’s a lot to look forward to this year.
My guess is this is a 9ish win team. O should be a little better with Wentz’s extra preparation and better WR. Schedule will be easier. Of course, there’s always so much randomness, so it easily vary 2 wins either way.
9 +/- 2 feels right for this team. I just can’t settle on a presumptive division winner.
Randomness aside….9 win season good/ bad or on par?
Not sure what you’re asking? Given the state of this team, I just think 9 would be a pretty normal result. I don’t have any major criticisms of the post-Kelly activities besides the failure to properly address CB. Not thrilled with the Pederson hiring, either.
That’s all I was asking. 2nd year of rebuilding if 9 was a good number in your eyes….. I’m trying to gauge my expectations…8-8 i think ill be disappointed. 9 wins..being only 1 win away(injury free)…still some weaknesses and youth to build on… talking myself into an expectation of 10 wins 🙂
Thing is, I feel the same quality team in the same environment can get 8-11 wins. Football is that random. That might even be understating it.
11 wins gets you into the playoffs and all the excitement and optimism that entails. 8 wins, you stay home and spend the summer stewing in the mingled frustration and hope that is the lot of the typical NFL fan. For the same team.
9, I guess, is just kind of meh. Philly fans seem to have a bit of championship insanity, where being the last team standing is all that matters. While I can see that point, I just want to team to do cool $hit and provide fun memories. I don’t think it’s a good idea to obsess on being the final team of 32. Bad odds!
Cons: Jordan Hicks broke his hand
Pros: It’s not serious and they just just put a club on it anyways.
DGB is gone!
Bringining in another young QB means I no longer have to read more Jerrod Evans is actully good posts
Philly voice article didn’t seem to scary on the injury.
My former boss (MD/PHD) who was legit Greek from Mikanos would literally always just say “put some olive oil on it”.
That’s one way to go!
That’s Greek for Tussin
Pretty sure we don’t want any player who might have to catch the ball trying to oil up their hands though, most’ve ’em don’t need the help with drops!
If you were hoping that kendricks would be traded, I’m guessing that hope is now completely dashed.
Who the heck is Dane Evans
One of the two Tulsa guys that Press Taylor got tryout invitations for.
Any takers?
I bet DGB won’t make the team this year.
Prize – 1 gallon funyon flavored pudding
Ha
Do i get the pudding or do you?
Tommy gets it, body shot style….. Fox, Megan
CBs easily could be dumpster-fire level and if they are I bet Schwartz gets exposed in his inability to scheme around that fact.
Schwartz “gets exposed” would seem to indicate that he’s not a good DC. I’d heavily disagree with that based on his track record.
Not a Schwartz guy at all after seeing and hearing him up close for a season last year.
When this defense stunk in the 2nd half and got lite up, he clammed up and didn’t want to speak to the media about it.
Didn’t have a very good rep in Detroit either as a head coach too in his ability to make adjustments or dealing with the media either.
You’re daily offseason party pooper post – brought to you by “Bummer Bob”
Robinson stinks and the Eagles CBs are a mess.
After looking around, this Eagles’ roster is arguably the most interesting albeit highly-flawed one in the NFC.
You could sell me on a a scenario where they win 6 games this year quite easily and another where they win 11 games too.
I have less of a feeling on this team than I do on any Eagles’ team the past several years.
The only way they win as few as 6 is if you get both OTs injured.
Wentz doesn’t take a step forward, Peters’ back flares up & he misses most of the year, and the defense doesn’t enjoy the health they did last year especially on the front 7.
If ebola strikes the Eagles locker room, they might have a bad season. Just a prediction.
Since the NFL isn’t playing any games in Sub-Subara Africa or South Africa or the Eagles’ players aren’t likely to eat any tainted monkey meat from the jungle, I think they are pretty safe on that one.
Sure hope so
OH! My b. I heaven’t heard any conversation about the Eagles CBs being the weak spot, Robinson not being Revis in his prime, Mills not being Usain Bolt, and relying on some rookies/CFL dudes. I take that back.
Do me a favor, I might forget.
Tomorrow, or whenever Tommy puts up a new post, let us know how you feel about CBs potentially being the weak spot on the Eagles this season. Thanks
I enjoy your posts even if they pretty critical of me.
It would be pretty amusing to put Usain Bolt in pads and have him run a fly route with Mills 10 years off the line and see just how far Usain was ahead of him 30 yards down field.
Thanks, and I mean no harm. And for the record, my “offline” Eagles fan friends always give me ish for being too optimistic about the team – especially in the off-season.
I just feel that you do play the role of “bring things back to earth in terms of expectations” on a quite regular basis. I admire your, a, regularity?
Most Eagles’ fans seem to be highly reactionary and even after living in several cities in the US it amazes me how knee-jerk they can be on this team.
Agreed. I still think Mark Bowen (in the book Tommy recommends all the time which is why I read it – “Bringing the Heat”) put it best “Id People”.
And for the record – I don’t think that describes most regulars on here, but of the masses, to a T.
It does and American society in general. Philly has always struck me though in particular as a ‘what have you done for me lately city’ though in terms of its general temperament in politics and business though too.
Jimmy Rollins was not incorrect… to be fair
Yeah, and for the record (not to go there – here) but I always appreciate your comments about politics elsewhere Mr. Smith.
Oh, and your die-hard Phillies/Baseball background makes some sense in terms of your tepid propensity for optimism with the Birds, I do get that.
I keep any political discussion off here (as anyone should) and have even given up commenting over at philly.com.
You have the same trolls get banned, go under a new Disqus ID, and spew the same garbage on a narrow range of articles.
Philly.com has reacted by eliminating comments on a number of articles and I can’t blame them. Just not worth the effort or time to actively monitor the comment sections.
Whenever Bill Alt and River Rat pass away I’ll be peeing on those graves.
Free beers for life from me to you for that.
No need for that. River Rat just seems like more of a ‘in my day’ old guy with nothing better to do. He at least has local knowledge when he doesn’t rant.
Bill Alt is just a troll/hate monger who adds nothing to the discussion except bile.
Y’know, you two should just date and get this love-hate relationship to a new level.
I’m highly interested to see how this team will do this year too even if I don’t have super high expectations (8-10 wins).
I’m a Phils’ season ticket holder and baseball junkie. For the first time, I have lost general interest in even listening to that team on the radio. Been that bad and boring a product this year.
For the record – the Vegas over/under for the Birds is 8 wins. So you expecting 8-10 means you are optimistic and could make some money betting the over.
Actually, betting the over is a good idea. They’ll win 9-10 games with the talent they have. Remember, bookies don’t set a line based on what they think will happen. They set a line based on how they think people will bet in order to get half the money on either side and win on the vigorish.
I haven’t been a serious baseball fan since I was a kid and the lockout happened. But I respect those who are, and I really feel awful for them this year. I was just with one of my buddies who’s a true baseball nerd in all it’s glory – has been his whole life – and I asked him if he’s even able to care this year – barely.
Are only rainbow and sunshine posts allowed on here, lol? I think focusing on the content of posts rather than the poster is appropriate here.
The CB position on the Eagles has been a train wreck for the last several years and it is a real issue that Schwartz and Pederson need to prove is fixed. I think it is a very valid point to make.
I agree. I think it was valid to make the first 5000 times it was made. I also think that they spent 2 early round picks on the position.
Nothing wrong with your opinion; I just think taking a shot at the poster is unnecessary.
Perhaps. It was intended to be innocuous…
I am not sure any D.C. can scheme around two bad corners in today’s NFL. I thought Schwartz shined the turd better than many last season.
At times last year, Pederson seemed to be too friendly and outgoing and got compared to Reid a lot.
Fans seem to forget that during his first 2-3 years here Reid had several incidents where he was really harsh on players including in training camp.
I am looking for Pederson to make more of that transition this year in training camp. Not a vocal fiery coach but one who sets more of a tone and expectation among players on the team.
Going to be really hard to say if this occurs or not because practices are closed to the public and reporters are always biased on this topic. Unless there is a particular incident or two, it will be hard to say whether or not this has occurred.
Would public shaming of Kelce after his next bad snap do the trick? I know it would for me!
It hasn’t reached the mental block yet of ‘Knoblauch’s inability to throw to 1st’ but it is pretty ridiculous that it was an issue in multiple games last year even with a rookie QB.
I know Kelce has some fans on here. I’m not among there and wonder if he even gets supplanted by another OL this year. Tend to doubt it unless it is injury-driven.
If they continue to run so many screens, that likely helps Kelce’s chances of staying.
I see Kelce as an ‘ok’ option at C who only gets supplanted if he misses some time due to injury, they tweak to the playbook a bit as a result, and then he ends up staying on the sideline if they have a bit more success.
I don’t think public is Pederson’s MO. If he learned anything from Reid, he’ll maintain a tighter ship if he lets the team know without question that he’ll keep his criticism and disciplining inside the locker room. But, as BobSmith77 stated, he’s got to be demanding…continuously.
Another injury to Hicks concerns me, but hopefully it is minor or will heal before pre-season games and not be a nagging thing all season.
I also hope the NFL has dropped any discipline of Bradham, but until there is some official announcement, I’m nervous.
Bye bye to DGB, some talented players just do not have what it takes to succeed. He’s had plenty of chances.
I just read Jimmy K’s deconstruction of the Cowboys, and I feel like a new man! I highly recommend it.
I hate and avoid the comments section on the internet, except for this site. I would recommend reading the comments on both the Cowboys and Giants articles. Highly entertaining.
Yeah that’s the old crew from the old “Birds 24/7″/Phillymag defunct site. Good crew if not rough around the edges a bit, well maybe not just the edges… but funny and informative/knowledgeable none the less.
Happy for ‘Bama and his success over there – always a good read and he deserves that robust comment section which I’m sure sustains his pay-checks.
As long as that foul harpy Big Butt and a Smile is gone…………..
The pro-Vick faction of temp Eagles fans was too hard to stomach over there.
Oh yeah, there’s no doubt some turds. It’s a bit 700 charm friendly in those parts…gotta step in some piss to put up with the passion and hilarity
Good observation about the somewhat different clientele over there.
I think to make it to the professional level of the NFL, pressure has to be a pretty non-existent factor for QBs. Sure there are exceptions where guys skated their whole life on raw talent. I feel like Doug isn’t that guy. He exudes the presence of a man who, sure, has a great desire to win, but probably sleeps like a baby even in defeat.
I love that NFL players can be the most elite athletes playing one of the most violent games on earth, and then they go and break their hand getting out of a pool.
Who did that???
Wentz.
.
.
.
.
Jk trying to give you a heart attack. Jordan Hicks. It’ll be healed up by training camp.
Shit man that is the Wentz of defense.
Stuff happens
Wonder if he slipped and fell because breaking a hand coming out of a pool seems like an odd injury.
I wondered the same thing actually, the only scenario I could come up with where that makes any sense is if the pool was slippery and he had to make a really sudden movement to stop a fall.
Almost wonder if he wasn’t doing something ill-advised/foolish and this is just the official version of what got released instead.
Either way doesn’t really matter and hope he recovers by the start of camp. Little iffy and not many details released including if it was a compound fracture or not.
Yeah I worried the same thing since the story didn’t make a lot of sense. Athletes seem to be very bad at coming up with plausible seeming explanations for injuries that occurred when they were doing shady or stupid stuff.
The first thing that popped into my mind actually was a domestic violence situation, but I’m sure that’s just because of all the emphasis on that particular issue in the NFL right now.
Edit: this was Greece right? Maybe punching cabana boys has gone international.
Wet, slippery, hard surfaces where people relax, let their guard down, and fool around? I don’t think we have to go looking for sinister undertones.
Not really looking for them, just that’s what sprung to mind. I don’t know the first thing about Hicks, it just feels like shit hits the fan with great regularity these days. I hope people aren’t interpreting this as an accusation, it’s simply something that sprung to mind.
No, I understand the feeling of waiting for the rug to get yanked from under us every time things seem to be headed the right direction, but if upon hearing a guy broke his hand – on his honeymoon – is domestic violence you might want to step back for a few deep breaths. One day, man, it will work out.
Haha, yeah, I’m pretty sure Eagles fandom totally isn’t good for your health.
This is a very believable scenario.
Think of all the stupid times you’ve been injured, it’s usually really dumb stuff or some freak thing that just went wrong.
Says a guy who was actually seriously injured climbing a fence.
My girlfriend has a massive scar on her thigh from when she was a child and she tried to climb over a fence, caught her leg on a decorative spike on the top. The way she describes it it sounds like it was a pretty horrific injury.
JR Reed had a career ending injury jumping a fence trying to get away from a dog.
The real takeaway here is that fences are a public safety hazard.
A lot of people were naysaying the JR Reed injury.
Not me, I know the danger of fences. Not to mention their effect on natural selection.
I guess that is another example of their effect on natural selection.
I once pulled my back out lifting a water bath of creme brûlée out of the oven.
(It probably had something to do with hours of shoveling snow earlier in the day, but my wife never mentions that part.)
I cracked my toe once with a jar of mayonnaise.
It’s is sadly not at all surprising that this thread has already meandered towards accusing Hicks of doing something stupid as well as bringing up the specter of domestic violence.
Come on. I mean I get it, we’re Philly fans, but there comes a point where automatically jumping to horrible conclusions in every possible case is just crazy.
nm
If Wentz improves and there are not significant injuries, I will be more than happy to hear about CB being our biggest problem all year long. The first two are far and away more important.
Bye bye DGB.
Shame, really. Had his mother named him Kelly instead of Doriel, fans would have loved him.
I don’t care if someone else picks him up and he meets his potential in a few years, this is the right move. Really though..doubt he ever comes close. If Kenny Britt can go through what he has and stick on teams, this dude must be garbage.
I’m happy he is gone. His actions warrant him to be cut, but it really is a shame. So much talent and rare physical traits, yet he has a bum ass personality. Kid is given a chance to be more then set for life yet he continues to just squander the opportunity. Not much else pisses me off more then that.
It sends the right message to the young guys, too: you are here because of your potential, but potential isn’t enough to stick.
抱着学习的态度来看看
Thought I’d share this over here, too. My contribution to Jimmy K’s list of 10 reasons why the Eagles will be a dumpster fire.
#11 Lane Johnson is incapable of reading an ingredients list.
He’s one more illiterate mistake away from, what, a full 16-game suspension? With Jason Peters a card-carrying AARP-member, Kelce being revealed as a JAG with beard, and a bunch of 2nd years & castoffs manning the guard positions, Wentz will not make it through the season.
And, if its not obvious, the Eagles are not Super Bowl contenders. The most important thing this year is getting Wentz more experience and seeing whether he’s the real deal. With the complete inattention to the OL in the offseason, except taking a flyer on major bust Chance Warmack, not only do the Eagles risk dumpster fire type losses, but we may get to see a lot of,… um,…. um, …..Oh yeah! – the guy who was named Eagles starter for 1,000 years before he proceeded to be the dumpster fire of St. Louis.
First I will say, BOOOOO! for tapping into a deep buried fear.
Second, I think the next one for Lane is actually two years, i.e. career ending.
11a. Lane continues to associate himself will MMA “fighters” who can’t stop training with PEDs.