More Wentz Analysis
Posted: July 20th, 2017 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 56 Comments »
It can be good to see what national writers and analysts think of Eagles players. The worst thing you can do is live in a bubble and think every player is headed for stardom.
Evan Silva is an excellent fantasy football writer. I’m not a FF guy myself, but he does a lot of research and I respect his opinions, even if I don’t always agree. He recently wrote his preview of the Eagles. Let’s focus on what he had to say about Wentz.
Carson Wentz generated Ben Roethlisberger–Andrew Luck–Carson Palmer comparisons during a hot Weeks 1-6 start against the Browns, Bears, Steelers, Lions, and Redskins, four of whom finished in the bottom half of DVOA-rated pass defenses and all of whom ranked 12th or worse. Armed with wideouts who created no separation and a treacherous right tackle situation due to Lane Johnson’s ten-game ban, Wentz bottomed out thereafter on a 9:13 TD-to-INT ratio and abysmal 4.87 adjusted yards per attempt in Weeks 7-17. Reduced to a negative-EV checkdown passer while experiencing Bortlesian mechanical flaws, Wentz simply had too much put on his plate as a rookie from the FCS. The Eagles allowed the NFL’s ninth-most quarterback hits (98) and finished sixth in pass attempts. Still, from a forward-thinking fantasy standpoint Wentz’s heavy volume can be viewed as a plus, and he brings sneaky rushing upside to the table as an 81st-percentile SPARQ athlete who finished 12th among NFL quarterbacks in rushing attempts (46) last season and scored on both of his scrambles inside the five-yard line. For Wentz’s second-year breakout candidacy, the hope is that he will now stack efficiency onto his volume with Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith upgrading Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor, and that RT Johnson’s return will solidify what has the potential to be a top-five NFL offensive line. July drafters are making Wentz the QB19 off the board, ahead of Carson Palmer, Blake Bortles, and Ryan Tannehill.
Wentz’s rookie year was more positive than negative, of course, and so was his willingness to test tight coverage, albeit no doubt furthered by wideouts who didn’t get open. Wentz showed aggressiveness by throwing the NFL’s seventh-highest rate of passes to receivers with less than one yard of separation (Next Gen Stats), with a league-high eight of his interceptions occurring on such plays. Hence the Eagles signing of Alshon Jeffery, the NFL’s premier contested-catch winner.
That’s a fair assessment. Wentz was at his best against mediocre defenses. I think the obsession with his mechanics is a bit much, but they are a legitimate issue.
The stats about Wentz’s willingness to throw to covered receivers are interesting. You want that in a QB. The worst thing is for a QB to be too safe. You won’t lose games, but you won’t ever win tough games. You must take chances in the NFL.
I stumbled across this video of Wentz highlights from last year and found it interesting.
A lot of his best plays came on play-action passes or deep drops. Wentz had space to set up and then had time to survey the defense. That is somewhat standard for a rookie. Good QBs need to make faster reads and get the ball out quicker. You want plays to be made with rhythm and timing. Hit a WR on the move and let him create a big play. You keep pressure off the O-line by getting the ball out on time.
The Eagles did use short, quick throws a lot, but often they were quick screens or dump-offs. That’s different from getting the ball out in rhythm on 3- and 5-step drops.
Carson Wentz completed 62.4% of his passes last year.
That's higher than every quarterback in the Pro Football Hall of Fame as a rookie.
— Reuben Frank (@RoobCSN) July 19, 2017
Very deceiving stat. Wentz made a lot of short throws so of course he’s going to have a higher completion percentage. That says more about how the passing game has changed than it does anything Wentz did. I’m sure Roob knows that and the stat certainly sounds impressive, but as always…you need context.
Making better reads will help Wentz to also be more effective as an intermediate passer. He has the arm strength to be good on those plays. He needs to work on decision-making, timing and accuracy. Those are all things that come with experience, both in games and in practice.
*****
This is a fun clip to watch.
Carson Wentz to Zach Ertz is going to be a site to see in 2017. #Eagles pic.twitter.com/iuM1cqoZER
— Philly Nation (@Philly__Nation) June 3, 2017
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Wentz is going to step onto the field week 1 with the benefit of a full 16 games and all of the reps / attention as the unquestioned #1 QB. Last year he stepped on the field after missing almost all of the preseason games and having been the #3 up until the point where Bradford was sold to the Vikings.
I’m not going with any loose MVP candidate talk, but I think Wentz is primed for a big year.
The potential is definitely there, but it’s a fragile potential in a rough sport. With some health luck on the offense, I think we should expect (predictions aside) him to have a pro-bowl worthy season. If Alshon gets hurt though, Wentz will have a tough go of carrying this offense (I’m not high on Smith).
Just keep Lane and Peters upright and functional for 16 games each and we’ll be fine if Alshon goes down.
If Smith is a JAG, it’s a monumental step up from last year.
Yup.
I’m not so sure.
Nelson Agholor was abysmal
36 receptions
365 yards
good for 10.14 yards per catch and 24.3 yards per game
JAG Torrey Smith:
20 receptions
267 yards
good for 13.35 yards a catch and 22.2 yards a game
I think Smith can thrive here across from Jeffrey, and create some opportunities for other guys too. But if Alshon goes down, it is not safe to assume he will be a monumental step up from Agholor.
I think you have to put Torreys poor numbers into context.
He had three nobody QB’s throwing him the ball in SF and none of them were accurate beyond five yards.
You could have had Calvin Johnson in that offense and
still have failed.
both were on bad offenses, ours was marginally better, ergo NA was marginally better. The context wasn’t all that different.
I would have to disagree.
The 9er’s offense, specifically the passing attack was abysmal at best they finished 31st and 32nd in the NFL, in 2015 and 2016. and the Eagles were ranked 12th and 24th in that time frame.
Comparing a washed up Kap and a complete failure named Gabbert to Wentz and Bradford as QB’s isn;t even close IMO.
We finished 25th in passing DVOA, they finished 28th. Both passing offenses were bad.
Look, it’s fine to feel Smith is better than anyone we had last year (except jmatt, that is objectively false), but we are talking marginal, not monumental. As I said before, he’s in a position to thrive here, unless Alshon goes down and he has to be WR1. Flip side, I don’t think the offense skips a beat if Smith goes down.
Definitely in better position to succeed.
My concern, echoed below in multiple comments, is that our depth still sucks at nearly every position. Thanks Chip you f***head.
If Ertz really does become Wentz’s security blanket like he was saying to Pederson in that video, then put me on team Let-Matthews-Walk.
(preemptively, you’re not getting a 2nd round pick, Guy Media, nor were you ever going to get anything higher than a 5th).
The Baltimore writers’ quote was a 3rd. Not even I was looking at a 2.
Im really hoping Wentz to Ertz becomes a big thing this year and beyond. I think the potential for it is there.
With AJ on the team — Ertz(and everybody else) should have a lot of free room
So if and when Bradham gets his suspension, can Kendricks play SAM, or does he keep getting nickel only snaps?
I believe it’s basically been reported that he’ll be fine (Bradham that is).
I don’t think he’s clear of that cabana nonsense and he still has that gun issue from last year as well.
I was jumping the gun (pun unintended but whatever). There’s a McManus article about a deferment program for the cabana thing that likely makes it much less of an issue. I guess the gun thing is still a potential issue.
The deferment thing makes it less of a jail issue, but Mr. Goodell doesn’t have to consider that if he doesn’t want to.
Oh that guy? That guy is busy with Zeke
I’d assume they’d play somebody else at SAM, but leave Kendricks on the field for 2 LB sets.
Kendricks doesn’t play any nickel at the moment. The nickel backers are Bradham and Hicks.
It really doesn’t matter who plays where in base packages. You’re only in base on 20 snaps a game. If coaches want the third LB to be KGH or Gerry then Kendricks would probably slide to SAM. If it’s Walker or Goode he’ll probably just stick at WILL.
If Bradham does miss time, Kendricks would likely be one of the nickel backers along with Hicks.
I have no particular feeling about whether Wentz will be a good QB or not. Certainly possible, but with a slight negative outlook because of the well-known flaws. This feeling probably says more about me than him. It is fun to have a guy who has so many tools and so few obvious limitations, in other words potential!
F your negativity. That’s what I say.
Well reasoned point!
Praise your measured skepticism. That’s what I say.
You think too much. Have a beer and try again.
I thought I saw some flashes of greatness at certain times last season. Those first three games were pretty impressive given the circumstances of how he became the starter.
I think he’s going to thrive with both new receivers and a RB that can get you short yardage when needed.
We have the TE’s, and a solid group of RB’s that all have different strengths.
Getting Lane back for 16 games is going to really help this offense stay on track and barring serious injury, IMO we have a more than capable offense.
If Wentz is half as good as the Eagles think he is, he should light it up with this these players.
The reality is none of us and no one else knows if Wentz will pan out or not.
All we can do is hope Wentz, the Eagles, the coaches, his teammates etc. are all doing everything possible to maximize the chances he not only pans out, but becomes elite at the position.
Because the odds to win a SB are greatly enhanced if your QB is elite and the number of opportunities a team has is also improved.
especially while he’s on bum wages for his first 4 years in the league.
Absolutely right – that’s my concern as well.
Which is part of my reason for being so fanatical about getting rid of some dead end guys ASAP; to afford extensions / signings of premium guys before we’re paying a QB a premium rate.
I haven’t felt as confident about a player as I have Wentz…since Dylan Bundy (who is still developing but its baseball). I think the dude is a lock to be AT LEAST as good as names in that list like Palmer.
I think Wentz takes a step up, maybe not to top ten, but to top 15 QB based on growth, better receivers, and better Oline (assuming Lane plays whole year). That is a reasonable expectation. He will be in top 10 discussion in 2018.
I’m looking at (in no particular order) as definitely better than Wentz this year as: Brady, Big Ben, Luck, Mariota, Carr, Rivers, Wilson, Palmer, Stafford, Rodgers, Brees, and Ryan.
So anywhere from 13 to 18 seems about right.
No on Mariota, Wilson, Palmer, and Luck. Those guys are all overrated.
Palmer was utterly terrible last year. You think it wasn’t him taking an L to old man time?
Wasn’t the Cards OL straight trash last year? Palmer is old, but that certainly can’t help.
They were putrid. Far better than the year before I do believe though. Palmer got old.
If Wentz is mo’ betta than Jameis Winston and Dizak and Eli Man and Capt Kirk Cousns then we are in fair and reasonable shape for the time being
Props to Wentz for also being tough as nails. I’m too lazy to track down film but I remember watching him get slammed numerous times and bouncing right up.
Yeah, that’s a very strong quality!
He took a hit in the Detroit (?) game where I said his career won’t last long if he keeps getting hit like that. He got up and played. He seemed to get smarter about getting hit as the year went on. Should be okay.
He learned after that hit in Chicago as well, when he was near the sideline and he got popped trying to gain an extra foot.
I remember that hit. Rookies need to learn.
Something that doesn’t get discussed enough. I’ll also add that while we all know he is intelligent, he is also mentally tough. Those two things don’t always go hand in hand. He shakes things off well and keeps a positive attitude and a focus on the game. He’s got just about everything going for him.
I think “don’t often go hand in hand” is an understatement. My observation has been that they are often closer to mutually exclusive than to one in the same.
Exactly. Go rush that hill, soldier. You crazy, man?
Cynical and pessimist view
I just hope Wentz just doesn’t turn into Alex Smith. Wait what? Insomniac you didn’t take your crazy pills today! We’ve heard the story before, small school guy with all of the tools and high football IQ that was a very high pick. Wentz and Smith are both good rhythm passers in the short-intermediate throws but leaves you wanting more in deeper throws. While he isn’t a bust, he’s not good enough to win it all. That being said this is only taken from what Wentz has shown so far from a small sample size.
Realistic view
He was a rookie that wasn’t supposed to start. He had turds that can’t really be called WRs but hopefully that’s not the case this year. I hope his deep balls get better because they were very often just hit or miss (leaning on the miss side).
I just hope he doesn’t turn into Tannehill. Athletic with good arms and not much college experience.
Oh god I hope not. Wentz being Tannehill would be worse than being Alex Smith.
Fuck it, I’m all in on Wentz. Measured optimism isn’t the way of the true Eagles fan. No true scotsman and all that.
Glad to see someone man up.
Wentz is a pro-bowl lock. Book it.
Go Wentz, young man!
I knew he looked familiar
https://i.redd.it/t1sjsz4litaz.jpg