High Variance
Posted: January 27th, 2018 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 338 Comments »Nick Foles is a high variance QB. He’s usually good or bad, with little in-between.
Look at his QB rating in games with 10 or more pass attempts
- 100 or higher – 16
- 80 – 100 – 10
- Less than 80 – 17
The opinion on Foles is also high variance. Prior to the Falcons game, very few thought Foles could get the job done. The oddsmakers had the Eagles as underdogs. The pregame shows all picked Atlanta.
Tony Dungy predicted that Foles would have “a great game”. I don’t recall anyone else making such a positive prediction. After the Eagles win, the tone changed a bit. Still, most people thought the Eagles won in spite of Foles.
Things were different heading into the NFC Championship game. The oddsmakers still had the Eagles as underdogs. Most people expected the Vikings to win. But it sure wasn’t as much of a certainty. More people believed in the Eagles. More people believed in Foles.
He still had his doubters, of course.
Hey Michael Irvin pic.twitter.com/JXmXNQo7o9
— Ross Shumate (@Rossthaboss20) January 22, 2018
To be fair, that is part of a segment called Bold Predictions. That ended up being a lot more stupid than bold.
Then Foles played the game of his life against Minnesota. He was 26-33-352. Only 7 incompletions! That’s crazy. Foles had a higher QB rating and completion percentage in the NFC title game than Carson Wentz has ever had in his career. That was a truly spectacular performance.
Needless to say, Foles got everyone’s attention.
He is getting ready to square off against Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. Normally this would be seen as a complete mismatch. Brady and the Pats are favored, but there are more than a few people picking the Eagles. Most people see this as a close game.
Just a few weeks back, the idea of Foles vs Brady would have been seen as a total joke. After Foles carved up the Vikings and their top-rated defense, the perception has changed. There wasn’t a ton of Super Bowl talk down in Mobile, but there is a lot of genuine curiosity in regard to Foles and the Eagles offense.
It really is crazy how quickly the perception has changed with Foles. Seeing that one great game made all the difference in the world.
*****
Les Bowen wrote a terrific piece on Foles and his return to the Eagles.
“Nick’s an underdog. He’s always been an underdog,” Larry Foles, 71, said last week. “This whole scenario fits him very well, because it’s under the radar. He’s always flown under the radar, he’s still flying under the radar. That’s something I think he handles well.”
Traded to St. Louis by Chip Kelly early in 2015, benched after less than a season there as the starter, released, then signed for a year as a Kansas City backup, Nick was a half-forgotten relic of the Eagles’ recent past this time a year ago. But not to his friends and family.
“I really felt like he would be back with the Eagles. I felt that all along,” Larry Foles said. “I felt like Jeffrey [Lurie] thought the world of Nick, and I thought [Howie] Roseman did, and I know [Doug] Pederson did, ‘cause Pederson was the one who came down here [to Austin, Texas, before the 2012 draft] and tried him out on Westlake [High]’s field, with 40 to 50-mph winds Nick was throwing in, so Pederson knew what Nick was.”
The Eagles loved Foles the person. They just weren’t sold on him being the answer at QB so Chip traded him in the Sam Bradford deal. In the long run, that proved to be a great move for everyone involved, except Chip.
The Eagles got Wentz and Foles. Bradford got out of Philly and to play for a good organization. And now with Chip being back at UCLA, maybe that will prove to be a good thing for him as well.
*****
Some people have raised the question about what happens if Foles leads the Eagles to a win next Sunday night. Carson Wentz is doing everything he can to be ready for the season opener. Could there be a QB controversy between Wentz and Foles?
No.
Wentz is The Man. He’s going to be The Man.
Foles is a terrific backup and spot-starter. He can get you through a handful of games, but isn’t the guy you build a team around.
Jimmy Bama wrote a piece on possibly trading Foles in the offseason.
However, if the Eagles are indeed confident that Wentz will return on time for Week 1, Foles is probably more valuable to some other team than he is to the Eagles.
The Eagles will be in the enviable position of being able to hold onto Foles as insurance if no worthwhile offers are forthcoming, while being able to pull the trigger on one if it presents itself. The better outcome for the Eagles is probably the latter, seeing as Foles would almost certainly bolt for free agency when his contract expires after the 2018 season anyway, so they may as well be compensated with a high draft pick rather than lose him for nothing.
It’s also worth noting that Foles is slated to become more expensive in 2018, when he will count for $7.6 million on the salary cap, $5.2 million of which the Eagles would save if they traded him.
I disagree with Mr. Bama here.
The Eagles should be a Super Bowl contender next year. You need to keep a pair of good QBs. You want Wentz and Foles. I know the Eagles are spending a lot of money on the position and it would help them to spend less there, but QB isn’t a position where you cut corners. Look at how the Packers completely fell apart this year without Aaron Rodgers.
I also question whether another team would really trade much for Foles. He was solid in 2014, but you could see some holes in his game. He struggled in a big way with the Rams. Foles has been good this year, but he’s playing on a loaded team. Put Foles in different circumstances and the results could be drastically different.
Even a playoff team like Buffalo would be awkward for Foles. He’s benefited from terrific gameplans, good blocking and strong play from the skill players. Throwing to Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones would be very different from Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor.
My guess is that Foles sticks around for another year.
_
Is it true that Foles is actually on a five year deal, and that the final three years only void if he’s still on the Eagles? If that’s the case, and if he does something special a week from tomorrow, I could absolutely see a team hoping to contend in 2018 having real interest in Foles (Arizona, for example, might be a nice fit). On a reasonable deal, he could be a much more attractive option than Cousins or Keenum on a massive contract.
Next week will tell the tale. But I think he has the opportunity to play his way into a full time starter role.
I’ve read that, too. I don’t get why Foles and his agent would want something like that in the deal. I’ve heard of players insisting on no-trade clauses, but never must-trade clauses.
I’m sure it’s some creative capology designed to spread out the signing bonus. But the reality is, any team who trades for him is getting four years on one of the most team friendly starting QB contracts in the league. That makes Foles every bit the asset that Sleeves was two years ago, at the very least,
Isn’t it also true that he comes from a lot of money? If I’m wrong ok, bit if not, paired with his humble/incredibly unselfish attitude, I can totally see him as a guy who would be happy not making that much (millions)…
Trading Foles all depends on the offer. If someone wants a 5th then no thank you, if someone is looking for a 2nd… I’m all aboard.
this x 1000000000000000
I’m not just dumping Foles, but if I team gets you a 2nd (which they currently don’t have) you have to do it.
Getting picks back this year is what’s going to restock the cupboard to keep this team in dynasty mode.
You still think all they will get as an offer is a #2?
This is nuts – this guy is a starter and capable of playing at a Pro Bowl level. After the Birds win the SB there will be nothing short of a #1 pick that would entice me to part with him – especially since Wentz plays QB without regard for his body.
Need I remind everyone that Wentz is recovering from both ACL and PCL injuries? We may need Foles to start a few games.
Pretty clear now that if you know how to use him and surround him with the weapons, Foles is capable at playing at elite levels. Chipper – wherever you are – you are/were/will always be a dope when it comes to judging talent.
I love me some Wentzillanova but if Folesy wins the _____ _____ then I’m getting a Sunshine jersey !!
Let’s hope that the Foles falls into the 100+ QB rating category one more time this season.
Why mess with success? Next year, with Wentz still on a rookie contract and Foles at $7.6M…
Both those guys together will be cheaper than what Wentz will make alone in the first year of his next pro contract.
Right now it’s very affordable to keep both those guys through next season. The combined price tag must be $10M+ or near $11M altogether for 2018.
I would like to have them both on board next year for another Super Bowl run.
MM, how do you think Sudfeld fits into their plans. Obviously, there was mutual interest between the team and the QB. I can’t see Sudfeld being content as a 3rd string QB or the Eagles continuing to keep him on the 53 man roster.
Hey Philly! You ready for the Super Bowl???
Sudfeld has hardly any starting experience Philly. I would not want to rely on him like we had to with Foles. Seven games including 4 reg season games and now 3 playoff games.
Nice QB3 though. Needs more seasoning.
I agree, as this year has proven having a decent backup is invaluable, but there must be a reason that the Eagles made him the highest paid player on their practice squad and followed that up by paying him even more when putting him on the 53 man roster to prevent the Colts from signing him. I think before Wentz got injured the thinking was to have Sudfeld take over next year as Wentz’s backup. I’m not sure if they intended on trading Foles or something else. I think this action is still possible unless Wentz’s recovery is delayed.
Foles may want to stay with the Eagles. Or he may want to compete as a starter somewhere like…
Arizona (where he went to college), or Miami, or Denver, or wherever…
If Foles wants to stay, I would keep him. If Foles wants to go, Sudfeld will have to grow up fast.
I guess we’ll find out soon enough, but it’s a good problem to have.
Here’s the overall issue as I see it…………..
– you don’t have a 2nd and 3rd next year
– I’m always a “sell high” guy
-you can get a replacement level player for Foles to come in and back up Wentz for a lower salary than Foles
– they have a few UFAs I’d like retained
We know, you care more about (perceived) “value” than winning.
So I wrote Kempski’s article for him?
I don’t see how this relates to Kempski’s article.
http://www.phillyvoice.com/carson-wentzs-projected-timetable-return-may-allow-eagles-trade-nick-foles/
Key text
“The Eagles will be in the enviable position of being able to hold onto Foles as insurance if no worthwhile offers are forthcoming, while being able to pull the trigger on one if it presents itself. The better outcome for the Eagles is probably the latter, seeing as Foles would almost certainly bolt for free agency when his contract expires after the 2018 season anyway, so they may as well be compensated with a high draft pick rather than lose him for nothing.
It’s also worth noting that Foles is slated to become more expensive in 2018, when he will count for $7.6 million on the salary cap, $5.2 million of which the Eagles would save if they traded him. For a team that is tight against the cap, that money could go toward other important matters, like re-signing free agent-to-be LB Nigel Bradham, or helping get a contract extension done with players whose contracts are set to expire after the 2018 season, like DE Brandon Graham, LB Jordan Hicks, CB Ronald Darby, or RB Jay Ajayi.”
Yeah I get it and read his article. But you are obsessed with value.
So the article isn’t addressing value? Cap isn’t finite? Draft picks aren’t finite?
I’m not arguing/saying any of that. Just suggesting that sometimes, what’s best for the football team isn’t always maximizing value and assets at all times.
I’m not squarely for or against trading Foles and I do find the topic/scenario interesting.
But I think there’s an argument to be made for looking at the big picture and what’s best for the success of the team in addition to value/assets management.
For example, signing Foles for that much was a poor use of resources. Right? Of course not
That’s certainly good context and I don’t think anybody said adding Foles was poor at the time. If I’m remembering correctly there was residual anti-Chase Daniel rage.
I’m pretty sure that (yes, coming off the large amount of money spent on Daniel for a backup QB) some were saying we grossly and foolishly overspent for Foles
I can’t recall that, but I do remember the conspiracy theories about Foles needing Tommy John and/or being out for life.
I think the ultimate value of Nick Foles is having the ability to make another Superbowl run in 2018. Wentz is too reckless to count on for a full season.
That certainly has value. I’m just not sure what you’d get for Foles that would be worth more per se.
And of course you don’t see it because you’d rather make jerked off ball busting comments on a personal level rather than the topic at hand.
And if you don’t have draft pick and don’t have cap space, you don’t win long term.
Flooded market, don’t think teams are going to buy the foles gold. You know he’s not a franchise QB. The only teams that are going to want him are going to be teams treading water who will take him and a QB in the second or third round hope they hit on something, or a team that needs to stay competitive while a high pick settles in.
I been saying the same thing and everyone keeps arguing with me. Why would they give up picks and money when they can just sign or draft one of the other guys. It’s not like Foles is some generational talent. He needs a perfect situation to be really successful as is the case with most of the available QBs.
You watch the senior bowl? What are your thoughts on Josh Allen?
I’m not a fan. Arm talent for sure, but they said the same shit about Hackenberg.
Personally I’d probably only take Rosen or Mayfield, maybe Jackson if you’re willing to build in concepts to play to his strengths as he develops ala McNabb, there’s something I can’t put my finger on that bugs me with Darnold.
Nick Foles was a Pro Bowl QB under a coach who understood his strengths and had the weapons to offer him. Then he went to play for a neanderthal who didn’t and looked like JAG. Now he is back with a coach who understands his strengths and has the weapons to offer him. After he wins the SB you will have no doubts that this is true. In the right hands, on the right team, he is a SB QB. You can say the very same things about Eli Manning by the way. And perhaps Case Keenum too for that matter, who suddenly looked pedestrian…but we all know that the Eagle’s defensive line was the cause. He didn’t suddenly lose the ability that led the team to a 13-3 season.
He is a game manager type.
Case Keenum, Sam bradford, Teddy Bridgewater, Alex Smith all got that category. I think DP could have them all playing as well as Foles.
Gabbert and Cousins May also be available.
There are also 4-6 quality QBs that will be drafted.
If this was the year Geno Smith was coming out I’d expect to get good value for him. The problem is there are too many other options out there, many of which won’t require both draft picks and starter money.
Wow…that’s not who I saw moving around in the pocket looking to make the play that resulted in the TD long bomb to Jeffries. Or the guy Pederson entrusted to throw the flea flicker – who hit a small window. Or the guy who relentlessly connected with DeSean and Cooper. I think he’s a good game manager because they seem him play reasonably well in the West Coast offense. But inside that chest beats a fearless QB who loves to take his shots downfield.
I think you have some eagles bias going on.
Nick played great last week, but it’s not like that’s his normal level of play. Tommy spelled it out in this very post. His can be great, but not consistently. Alex Smith looked the like MVP for half the season. People were making the Case for Case.
Be excited for Foles all you want. I just don’t think we will have team offering us to world.
If Foles delivers another +100 QBR in the SB I think his stock will soar. By the way, if you haven’t read the Sports Illustrated article on Pederson where Favre praises him to the heavens it’s well worth a read. To have a coach of this caliber and experience behind him is everything to Foles. Pederson is the anti-Jeff Fisher. As was Chip’s offensive scheme until he decided that culture made talent at WR completely dispensible and gave away Desean for nothing.
I think my line in the sand on him is a 2018 3rd rounder, but do you think we’ll get that.
fuck no
Depressing.
You can’t get a replacement level player for Foles. He’s better than that. On the other hand, they have seen Sudfeld in practice, and maybe they think he could be as good. And he’s very cheap for 2018.
Now… our draft picks are depleted, though a couple of those went for Darby and Ajayi who are helping us this year, and those mean we don’t actually have to use picks on those positions anymore.
So, it’s a matter if the offer for Foles is better than the worth he provides. As shown this year, he’s a fantastic backup, and even a decent starter on the right team. I have my doubts a team will give up significant draft capital to get a guy that needs a lot of help from the rest of the team, but if someone were to actually offer a 2nd (and maybe a 3rd), I’d trade him. Much lower than that though, and I’m not sure it’s worth it — unless Howie is budgeting those cap dollars elsewhere.
Yeah, the additional cheap years of Darby and Ajayi help. And I guess figuring “replacement value” for Foles is going to depend on how much you’d look at him as the guy with the 22-17 record as a starter and 87 rating or not.
Spot on!!!
Carson alone is going to make a lot more than 15M when he gets the first contract. You are looking at around twice that number.
Ok, we have to stop using Foles’ time with the Rams against him. Any QB playing under Jeff Fisher should be able to throw out those years. Case Keenum also sucked under Jeff Fisher and he had a pretty good year. It can’t be coincidence that multiple QBs flourished once Fisher was out of the picture. Jared Goff looked like he didn’t belong in the NFL his first year and now look at him. Foles has played well under Chip Kelley, Andy Reid and Doug Pederson. He’s not going to take Wentz’ job but we can say he can be a starting QB on some teams without tearing a hole in space/time.
Outside of Steve McNair, Fishers history with QBS is a disaster. When you consider he once had Vince Young, Sam Bradford, Nick Foles, and Goff as his QBS and each one of them struggled without improving, you have to wonder if what on Earth he was doing on offense.
QB Vince Young never seemed like a very smart guy. But he was a tremendous physical talent coming out of Texas. I always thought Fisher and the Titans could have gotten more out of him.
Lol
Are you saying the guy that reinvented the phrase “the dream team” with the 2011 Eagles wasn’t very smart?
“QB Vince Young never seemed like a very smart guy.”
Complete dullard. When he threw his pads off and left the game as a Titan, that should have ended his pitiful career.
People don’t mind staying in championship teams
Depends on how he sees his career going. If he wants to go Blue Mountain State style and live the sweet life as an overpaid backup without taking NFL hits, then he found paradise. If he has his sights set on being a starter, then obviously he’s got to go.
They’re going to extend Foles….the last three years of his contract are voidable if he doesn’t agree to one….
He’s going to win one for the Eagles, and then they’re going to lower his cap hit next year by giving him an extension….It’s genius; this debate on Foles is moot.
That could totally work, but it doesn’t solve my missing 2nd and 3rd round draft pick issue for this year.
I believe that all of Nick’s bad starts in 2017 were in below freezing weather, and at least the Falcons game in gusty winds where no one threw well, including Matt Ryan. No one seems to mention that for some reason. Nick thrives in this offense and should be fine Sunday.
That is absolutely true. Nicky 100% doesn’t play as well in freezing temps.
I think we are missing the fact that it was Foles who regained his interest in football after joining the Eagles and if given a choice, I don’t think he would leave Philly. It’s a different story if some team gives a good trade offer but Eagles would be left with the decision to start the season with Wentz (who may or may not be 100%), stick with Foles or sign someone else more experienced than Sudfeld.
Jimmy is looking at things from the cold hard reality that they own Foles’ contract so the team can do whatever it wants. Legally, that’s true. But players are watching, and Foles has the national eye right now. If you screw him over and ship him off to the Browns just to recoup the picks, every player in the league isn’t gonna trust the Eagles anymore. Look just this week at the story about Chris Long consulting Barwin about the Eagles. That shit matters.
If Foles wants to start, I think the team will do right by him and find him a landing spot that works for both parties. I don’t think they’ll make any decisions in either direction just because they can.
That’s an interesting way of looking at things in terms of them trading him and the impact on team morale. I’m still inclined to disregard that if it allows me to find more future HOF players with the recouped draft pics.
Do you think you exaggerated just a tad when you said “every player in the league isn’t gonna trust the Eagles anymore”?
https://i.imgflip.com/23i0fr.jpg
Also, no. Just because you asked, I mean literally every last player. Even the money grubbers.
Fair enough, but I heard the same thing about desean, shady, and maclin just single digit years ago, and playing on a sb caliber team with Wentz cancels that out big time my opinion.
Yes, but the guy that fucked over Desean and Lesean has been shown the door, while Mr. GM of the Year and potential Coach of the Year are not going anywhere.
My point isn’t to guess what percentage of players would look poorly on such a move (again, because you’re being a stick in the mud about it, my official position is now 100% of them), but to say that reputation follows you. Like you haven’t ever looked at reviews on Yelp or Glassdoor before.
Yeah I hear you. I just disagree about the extent that it plays as much of a role in decision making. Given the context.
If we win, I’ll just be happy and trust Howie to make some good moves and it will all work out. If we don’t win, I’ll be bitter and this won’t register on the things I’ll be mad about.
I hope they keep Foles, but if some team (not named the Browns) makes an offer the Birds can’t refuse, then players will understand because it is a business. But I think Foles will have a lot of say in whether he goes or stays, especially if (make that when) he leads us to our first SB.
I don’t think they will be shopping Foles. But I think offers will come in, and Howie will make them pay. I also think that they will make sure Foles gets a say in what he wants to do.
It’s a flooded QB market this year. Nobody is going to offer a ton.
What’s your sense of what could be offered?
4 would be the absolute ceiling, probably less. I think supply exceeds demand.
And even my asset loving self can’t do Foles for a 4.
Foles’ contract sets him apart from Cousins, Keenum, and even Bradford. For a rebuilding team, yeah, the draft is certainly the way to go, no question. But for a team that thinks it can make a run (and there will likely be four such teams, by my count), Foles for a pick makes sense. And it leaves them with plenty of cap to make a splash in free agency.
This is recency bias.
It’s a “what have you done for me lately?” league, recency bias is a thing. Coupled with his 2013 season and the universally accepted settled science that Jeff Fisher is a destroyer of QBs, there’s enough evidence to reasonably suggest that Foles can play the position.
But the contract stuff isn’t any kind of bias. He has four years at $5M per. That’s a damn attractive number for a QB1 (if any GM believes he is one).
And whats keeping Nick from saying “I’m your QB1, I no longer have guaranteed money, Fuck you Pay me”?
Nick Foles is a solid backup/bridge QB. Nobody is going to fool themselves otherwise because he won 3 games in a row. Especially when he was only an acceptable NFL QB in 2 of the games he’s started this year.
There’s no reason to expect he would do that, since it flies in the face of everything we know about the guy. Besides, if he lives up to the expectations, you do what’s right and redo the deal at some point. But the low financial risk and the ability it gives you to use resources in other areas (weapons, protection) in that first year is an attractive prospect.
We simply disagree about what he is. I’m closer to believing he’s an actual starting-calibre QB than you are. The more I see from him, the more I think the Fisher years were the aberration, and not 2013 or these playoffs. I don’t hold the Giants and Raiders game against him, since they were essentially his pre-season.
I posted this Monday but I’m reposting it because it’s relevant to Nick’s high variance:
I feel 100% better about Nick playing in the Superbowl (a 70 degree dome), and not just because of last night.
Something a scout (I think) said on Twitter last night had me curious. He said Nick Foles is a warm-weather QB.
I threw his stats in excel and checked historical weather records to check this out.
Here are Nick’s stats for 1.) all of his games, 2.) just games where the high temp of the day is above 60 degrees, and 3.) just games where the temp is above 60 playing on a team not coached by Jeff Fisher:
COMP ATT % YDS TD INT RTG
19 31 62 223 1.40 0.62 90.99
19 31 63 229 1.4 0.5 95.2
20 31 65 247 1.7 0.5 102.5
When Nick played for anyone not named Jeff Fisher and it was above 60 degrees, he had 2 terrible games out of 25 starts. Otherwise, he played very well.
Here is a breakdown for anyone interested:
DATE TEMP COMP ATT % YDS TD INT RTG
11/11/2012 68 PHI 22 32 68.75 219 1 1 85.3
12/2/2012 70 @ DAL** 22 34 64.71 251 1 0 96.6
12/9/2012 78 @ TAM 32 51 62.75 381 2 0 98.6
9/29/2013 75 @ DEN 3 4 75 49 1 0 155.2
10/6/2013 70 @ NYG 16 25 64 197 2 0 114.9
10/13/2013 86 @ TAM 22 31 70.97 296 3 0 133.3
10/20/2013 63 PHI 11 29 37.93 80 0 0 46.2
11/3/2013 66 @ OAK 22 28 78.57 406 7 0 158.3
11/10/2013 66 @ GNB 12 18 66.67 228 3 0 149.3
11/17/2013 69 PHI 17 26 65.38 298 0 0 104.3
12/15/2013 70 @ MIN** 30 48 62.5 428 3 1 103.5
12/22/2013 68 PHI 21 25 84 230 2 0 131.7
12/29/2013 70 @ DAL** 17 26 65.38 263 2 0 124.4
9/7/2014 83 PHI 27 45 60 322 2 1 87.5
9/15/2014 70 @ IND** 21 37 56.76 331 1 1 84.4
9/21/2014 79 PHI 27 41 65.85 325 3 0 114.4
9/28/2014 73 @ SFO 21 43 48.84 195 0 2 42.3
10/5/2014 66 PHI 24 37 64.86 207 2 1 86.2
10/12/2014 64 PHI 21 34 61.76 248 2 2 79
10/26/2014 87 @ ARI 36 62 58.06 411 2 2 75.4
11/2/2014 70 @ HOU** 9 12 75 124 1 1 100.7
10/30/2016 70 @ IND** 16 22 72.73 223 2 0 135.2
11/6/2016 65 JAX 20 33 60.61 187 1 0 86.3
12/10/2017 85 @ LAR 6 10 60 42 0 0 69.6
1/13/2018* 61 ATL 23 30 76.67 246 0 0 100.1
** Dome 20 31 65 247 1.7 0.5 102.5
Nice work. And I’d agree.
I would love for Foles to play lights out against the Pats. And he might. Several games back the commentators mentioned how Nick was getting back to his is basket ball roots. He said he was too focused on mechanics with the Rams. Say what you will about that, but you can’t deny he has been playing looser and with more, dare I say, suddenness.
Also, we beat the Vikes 38-7. Let’s take away the flea flicker. 31-7. Still a blow out. Okay, take away the bomb to Alshon. 24-7. STILL A BLOWOUT.
Nick doesn’t necessarily have to play lights out to beat the Pats. Apparently, he needs to play at least as well as Bortles did. With our run game, RPO game which Nick has mastered, our match ups against their LBs, Nick can certainly do this. Yes, he will need to make some plays, particularly in the RZ. Some smart, creative play calling will help there of course. But you know Pederson, Reich, Carson, and Nick are pouring over film as we speak.
This is going to happen fellas. It’s happening!
Off topic and thinking way ahead.
Next year we play the Vikings in the regular season. Will that be home or away?
Curious because of all these reports of Minnesota fans being retaliatory douchebags. This could escalate.
Vikings game in in Philly.
Hopefully they don’t run their mouths about how well their fans “take over” road venues again.
Can we start the movement to be overly polite? Like the biblical advice to be kind to your enemies in order to “heap burning coals upon their heads”. It would be hilarious if we had video of Eagles fans shouting, “Welcome, FRIENDS!” and shaking the hands of everyone in purple gear.
Could be the opening game on Thursday night.
That would be something. Make it so.
Good point! I think it will be.
Isn’t it funny how Philly fans have to endure the endless recycling of stories about how shitty they are, yet everywhere you look, there are salty Vikings fans being about as bad a representation of a fanbase you could imagine. Somehow they are still the ‘friendliest fans in the world’ while we all regurgitate some anecdote about santa and snow balls 50 years ago. I mean, what do you suppose the national media would be talking saying, if the roles were reversed and the Vikings won in a blowout and philly fans were on the forums planning to mascerade as uber drivers and drive vikings fans out of the city in stead of the stadium on superbowl sunday?
How well can we cover/defend those rbs out of the backfield? Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead and James White.
Depends on how they get us lined up. I have confidence in Jenkins, Robinson, Kendricks, and Bradham to cover the shifty guys. If they get covered by Ellerbe or Goode, that’s a touchdown.
Good point. I’m watching the Pats vs Seahawks SB. Brady had the ball out in just over 1 second using Vereen, Amendola and Edelman mostly. If you can take away Amendola most of the time I think that will help. I know…Captain obvious lol.
I’m guessing Jenkins plays LB again and you see almost none of Ellerbe and Goode.
I doubt they come out of nickel. We can shut down their run without the extra LB. They will spread us out anyway. We won’t see Ellerbe or Goode on the field most likely.
Belichick has an entire playbook ready to exploit Goode and Ellerby in coverage with Lewis, White and Gronk. They are going to try and force our team into base personnel on defense all game long and go to the up-tempo quick passing game against the LBs. Hopefully, Schwartz is ready for it, and they will be able to stay in Nickel and still stop the Patriots run game. This will be the thing to watch for I bet.
To force us into Base they’ll have to play 22.
And their fullback is basically only useful as a blocker.
You will not disrespect the pride of Boyertown
With Gronk and those RBs don’t you think they would feel pretty great about that? And who are they really going to miss at WR asl ong as they get Amendola and Cooks on the field? Our slot corner has been one of the best (if not the best) in the league this year. I am willing to bet that this is their plan.
22 means they’ve got Develin and Dwayne Allen on the field. I’ll take that.
Or two halfbacks, right? I think that would be their preferred solution. They like to split out White or Lewis and run routes out of the backfield. This creates some confusion in man coverage going across the formation and might force the DBs into zone, and we all know what Brady does to zone coverage on the outside.
Boy, do I wish we had a healthy Jordan Hicks right now.
How we can/will defend the dink and dunk/quick release game is the huge and scariest question going into the game. Eli burnt us with it twice this year and Rodgers got us with it last year.
I’m not an X’s and O’s guy, so I am very interested in reading some analysis of this. I recall after the 2nd Giants game that McLeod, I think, said something to the effect of “yeah we don’t have an adjustment for that” or something. What!?
I remember wonder—along with several thousand other people—how was every other defense in the league able to shut the Giants offense down but the eagles, a top D, gives up mountains of yards?
Could Graham (the safety) be a key here? Playing nickel instead of base, to get an extra safety in and an LB out? Not sure.
The goal there isn’t really to stop them, but to slow them down. If we have confidence in our ability to score, then good luck to them scoring 25+ pts on 6 min drives.
If that indeed is the mentality, then not biting on double moves and limiting YAC are important parts of that approach.
And not switching to zone in the 4th quarter. Got to tough it out and stick with man throughout. Hope for some turnovers.
The Pats D is bend but don’t break. We need to figure out how to score from plus 20 yard line AND score a couple red zone TDs. Can’t trade FGs for TDs with Brady
1) first giants game we dominated them until a rash of in-game injuries hit our defense. Fletch, McLeod, Hicks, etc plus Darby was already injured. They has their sucess only after these injuries piled up.
2) second giants game was our 3rd road game after a long stay on the WC. Teams just seem to struggle in those situations.
3) the tackling was bad in both games. Short passing games only work if you can pick up YAC. I think this is a result of points 1 & 2.
4) we can only point to 2 games out of 18 where a team has had sucess this way against our defense. Other teams have tried and the defense shut them down. Both the Falcons and Vikings tried to attack with a short passing game and getting their RBs involved. How’d that work out? 8.5ppg
5) We all know Brady will have some sucess, but our offense can control TOP. This keeps brady off the field and our defense fresh.
“3) the tackling was bad in both games. Short passing games only work if you can pick up YAC. I think this is a result of points 1 & 2.”
Yup. Clowns missing tackles was really a major part of both Giants games for sure.
Nice analysis….gives me more confidence for Sunday…is it February 4th yet?
I think that for Schwartz, Nickel is base.
A 4-2-5 set. Bradham and Kendricks in at LB. Two CBs Darby and Mills, Slot Corner Robinson, and then Safeties Jenkins and McLeod.
Could go with Dime D a lot too, with a 4-1-6 set. Take LB Kendricks out and add C. Graham at Safety. Then drop Jenkins into the box.
Then after that you just have to go and play. This D is strong.
How would Sidney Jones match up against Gronk. Stage may be too big too soon at this point, but going forward he will be a nice match up piece against big receivers/TEs.
Not well; he’s too small. Now if you’d like to ask about Rasul Douglas, that’s a good question.
Hm I thought Jones was on the bigger side?
6 foot flat 186 – as measured at the combine.
Rasul is 6’2″ 209
Gronk still dwarfs both.
sid the kid on Amendola , now we’re talking
Don’t know if Sid is ready.
And that is the key match up. Gronk. Don’t have an answer, but that doesn’t mean Schwartz can’t be creative there.
I’d prefer to bracket cover Gronk and hope LB under / S over top forces some bad throws.
Hopefully the pats QB doesn’t have time to push the ball down field. I’m fine with Gronk catching short passes and getting gang tackled.
No doubt the pass pressure is a must.
That sounds like a plan. Gronk is just a crazy match up. Definitely limit him over the top.
I wish we had a 6’4″ LB who could run with the TE and not need help that often; Carlos Emmons, why have you forsaken us?
Yeah. Jordan Hicks, why have you forsaken us too?
Hicks is a great player, but he’s not Emmons in coverage or stature.
I’m searching for way to solve the Gronk problem…
Leave a bunch of alcohol in his hotel room and locker.
And a dead hooker.
bruh – j mills got this
I’d expect Mills to be owning Hogan all day.
Gronk might have 50 lbs on him and a small handful of inches. That would be a massacre.
I’m terrified they’d thump on runs if we went dime too much. Especially if you pull Bradham off of the field.
I think we go Dime with a big lead where Brady has to pass. I think Base 4-2-5 is where we settle in most of the first half anyway.
Yeah, that certainly works and has been what they’ve been doing on a ton of downs for sure.
“This D is strong.”
heh.
Didn’t Cox text that to the chick from North Carolina?
Plead the 5th, bro.
Not sure if you could get a warrant for the text messages in a civil trial. Where’s ACViking when you need him?
Trying to keep that confidence, CS!
Kendricks had better be ready to go on that!
Absolutely man! He can do it! We have a ton of guys with something to prove!!
He’s been a lot better this year with the tackling and covering that in prior years for sure. The only time I saw him look really stupid in coverage that I can remember is the Seattle game.
I’ve been thinking that’s where Pats will attack us…oh, and a whole lot of Gronk
If/When Foles wins, how much does that good will carry over if he doesn’t want to be shipped around and just settle here? Is that unthinkable? Has any quarterback accepted/restructured less to stay in one place? There must be precedent.
He’s been in a few cities already and would 100% sign here a 3rd time if he felt like it in a few years. I’m not sure he’d cause a stink in any regard.
Tra Thomas talks about the trenches…..https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/
If FOles gets dealt, it won’t be for an abstract “asset” like a third round pick and fourth next year. It will be for a specific player the team covets.
If it happens during camp, they’ll take a great offer in a decent situation provided there’s a guy as good as him on the roster behind a healthy Wentz.
For a team that has no day 2 draft picks and is going to be tight against the cap I think you got this wrong. It would probably take at least a 2nd, but this team need picks and cannot absorb another big salary.
We’ll see. I’m just going on Howie and Lurie’s public statements and way they’ve operated in the past two years.
I don’t think cap plays much of a role in what happens to Foles.
I personally don’t think anyone will give us anything of true value for him. I think he stays here in Philly
That too.
I been thinking about that, K…
Arizona? Nick played out there in college. Carson Palmer just retired. Does Nick want to start for a year or two in AZ?
Miami? They need a breakthrough at QB. Cutler didn’t work. Kerrigan remains unproven. Would Miami do another sweet deal for us with Howie or are they gun shy now?
Denver? John Elway needs something to work at QB while the Broncos defense can still prop their window open. Mr. Elway on line 2?
Cleveland..? Well, I’m not even going to get into it. But there’s always Cleveland, right?
Andy will take him
AZ: Is a new head coach really going to say I want Nick Foles to lead my ship?
Miami: Already paying Tannehill, they are tied to him
Denver: They’ve got to go back to the draft, Elway is one more bad season without a way forward from getting canned
Browns: No
Haha. That’s what you say THIS WEEK.
But what about NEXT WEEK?
The current lack of a 2nd and 3rd is really a glaring need.
It is, but when you consider that we picked up Darby, Jernigan, and Ajayi with those picks, it’s not as big of a loss. I think Howie has the right idea in this regard, but the “market” will catch up to him before long.
No doubt. Those trades were great moves. Especially as those guys are still on rookie deals for a bit. I’d just like to find a way to have in-house cheap dudes ready to roll who aren’t rookies if we need to let Ajayi or Darby walk.
I think minimum a 2nd and 3rd .. AND a 6th.. wtf, would be psyched to take on another Mills, and Bradham (4th)
I’d love to somehow get one of those two first round picks from the Bills. Do us a favor McDermott.
Definitely think Foles stays around for the clear fact that YES they will be trying to get back to the Super Bowl again next year and unless you can move up in the draft to get Barkley or something why trade the dude that just (quite possibly) did his part to help you win the Super Bowl! 😉
I think three things should go into the decision to trade foles: their evaluation of nate sudfield, carson’s recovery and Foles’ wishes. Do they think nate sudfield could keep the team afloat for 2-4 games if wentz isn’t ready for opening day? How long will wentz be out? I wouldnt trust him for more than 4-5 games max. Does Foles want to start or would he rather be a backup here than a starter elsewhere?
Yeah, what exactly is STUDfeld in their eyes? And I wonder if they look for another developmental guy in this draft if they wind up with an extra pick or two.
They gotta at least have a decent dink and dink in that big kid !! Man how could he NOT be at least decent. …
I’d say there is a fourth factor that is what Howie can get for him. Having said that, I think Howie can max out his value.
OT but is anyone going to be in Paris for the Superbowl? If so, I’d love to meet up to watch it with some fellow Iggles fans.
Wow, 12:30 to 4:30 AM there for game has the potential for an amazing Paris hangout. Good for any of you who pull that off.
I’m used to watching games late at night – great atmosphere in a bar, not so great when you’ve gotta get up for work the next morning.
Such is the life of a dedicated European fan
I could think of worse places to watch a game.
You haven’t heard the French commentators obviously 😉
No, but I’ve been to Paris twice and could certainly stand to go again. And is it possible to get somebody to run the audio stream of the NBC broadcast for you?
When I’m at home watching games, I usually find a streaming site and use that audio with the tv on. It requires a juggling act of synching the two but it’s the best IMO. But for the Superbowl I need to be sure I’ve got a big screen with NBC commentary preferably surrounded by my Eagles brethren!
That’s awesome. Hopefully y’all party up with a win Paris style.
I might meet up with JasonB ex-editor of BGN which would be cool though he has suggested a bar near where he’s staying which might not be the best. I’m thinking a North American bar is best. Unfortunately, I have bad memories of the NFCC game vs Bucs from one of the better bars
Due to the loss or Tampon Bay fans?
Believe it or not, I don’t remember any Tampax fans in the bar that night. I really thought that was going to be our year esp when Duce scored so early in the game…:-(
Yup!
will be on vacay in marseille – do french people back the bars for the SB? Would be interesting to go out..
If you’re in the South of France, see if any of the locals know where Norman Braman’s house is so you can defecate on it.
You could be lucky and come across a good bar. I’m afraid I don’t know Marseilles very well – only been once – but the French really don’t follow American Football very much. Even the SB is not a big thing unlike in the UK or even Ireland or Germany.
I would recommend going out though as if your hotel doesn’t have BeIN sports, you won’t see the game.
The SB is not shown on terrestial tv
So we’re looking at a combo of
Darby, Mills, Robinson, Jenkins, McLeod, Kendricks, and Bradham vs.
Cooks, Hollywood Hogan, Amendola, Gronk, and RB of the moment.
So Darby on Cooks, Mills on Hogan, Robinson on Amendola, Kendricks on the RB, Bradham or Gronk, Jenkins on double up with Gronk and/or creeping on pick plays, and McLeod over the top.
How do we fell about those matchups if the pass rush is average? I figured there isn’t a reason to ask if the rush is dominant and there isn’t a reason to live if the pass rush sucks.
I feel good about those matchups. I hope the pass rush is better than average though. Especially with us being 8+ deep. Who do you think our inactives will be? Wondering where we will go heavy/light.
The Patriots probably aren’t going to go smashmouth, so I bet we go one light at DT again. They might even go one light at LB go get an extra DB playing.
I think we need fresh Cox in 4th. “Time’s yours”
Yep that’s how I see it.
I was thinking there’s no point in trying to “trick” Brady/belichick with scheme. Not gonna happen. They’ve seen everything and more. That’s not to say that we won’t use deception and mix things up, but we need to match up in man coverage and the DBs and DL “simply” need to beat the man across from them, play after play, for four quarters. Same in offense, some deception but in the end just out play with talent.
At the end of it, the team with the better overall talent should have more points, and that is by almost every serious, unbiased account the Eagles.
I believe Kendricks only played in the base defense during the Vikings game. After the first series, Corey Graham played the nickel LB role and Goode/Gerry were relegated to the bench/special teams.
I’d imagine we’ll probably see that again in the Superbowl.
I have a tough time seeing them not have Darby follow Cooks around all day. Cooks is such a burner, I can’t see Mills effectively cover him without the safety playing over the top. In this game, I think the safety has to shade Gronk as he is more of a matchup nightmare.
Robinson seems tailor made to cover Amendola.
You certainly don’t have to twist my arm to get me to like Graham covering their RBs over Kendricks.
BIggest mismatches are Kendricks vs Lewis and Darby vs Cooks.
If the Pats don’t try to hit Cooks on a deep play with a double move on Darby on their first two drives, I’ll be really surprised.
Even if Gronk plays, I doubt he is 100% either. Cooks making a few big plays and burning Darby are my biggest worry.
See the Pats being able to move the ball on this defense. Eagles need 1-2 turnovers which is tough with Brady-led offenses and a timely red zone stop or two.
Darby and Mills don’t have a problem with double moves when they don’t give up 7 to 10 yard cushions. When they play on the line or near it, they don’t get sucked in by double moves. When they sit back, they are susceptible.
Or when McLeod doesn’t also bite.
Your last sentence about says it. I’ve seen no defenses over the years that consistently force NE punts without harassing Brady. I’m inclined to think that Schwartz will call some blitz packages if our DL is getting frustrated. It is gospel for that offense: Make 12 uncomfortable and beat NE.
Hopefully they can heat him up without blitzing unless it’s a really short down and distance that you need to take a chance.
carson said he’s not changing play style – i’d keep foles
The hardware Carson’s going to have on that leg next year might compel him to change that style. I liked how Dr. Chao pretty much said bye bye to scramble Wentz until 2019.
huh, really? Because a lot of Wentz’s added value was because of his improvising.
I think Dr. Chao was more saying that you really need 18 months to be your full self again.
Will be interesting to see how effective Wentz is when he comes back, especially if he loses his ankle-breaking moves.
heh heh heh
When you look at one stat alone, like QB ratings you miss the real essence of football – that it is a team game. I would submit that it’s likely that if you added QB pressures and sacks to that same analysis you might see the reason for the variance in Foles game. Than if you added into that the time it took him to throw the ball (which would give you an indication of what type of offense he was being asked to run)…you might have the complete picture. Thank heavens that Pederson had the presence of mind to go back to the 2013 season and see the conditions under which Nick Foles could show up as a Pro Bowl player. Jeff Fisher, by contrast, was a complete and total dunderhead who had no idea what it took to put him in a situation where he could succeed.
You mean like the 5 rating Keenum had under pressure vs. the Saints in the divisional round that helped all of us feel really good about what we were going to do to the Vikings last week?
And that context for QB rating is important provided two things; they don’t rank Eli or Cam higher than the current formula.
Playing against pressure, Keenum looked average. He stared at his feet and took his eyes off down field. You can say the same thing for Brady, though. Pressure makes a mockery of all the QB rating stats unless you are Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers.
I’m really curious to see how Seattle retools around Wilson as time goes on.
I wonder if anyone might be willing to compile the numbers here.
The reason I ask is that many of Foles completions in the Vikings game were done under pressure (but not all). He was not a statue; he moved around and still made incredible throws. I’d like to see the numbers on how many times he was pressured. Apparently Keenum was pressured on about _half_ his dropbacks!
What is more telling for Nick is when he steps into his throws and how that impacts his accuracy. Kelce, Wiz, and Brooks consistently gave him time to step up in the pocket and make good throws.
When Nick throws off his back foot or doesn’t step into his throws, his accuracy suffers immensely.
The throw to Alshon for a TD was over 5 seconds. He was under pressure but hung tight and stepped up in the pocket and made a great throw.
He has had atrocious OL. Really simple. OL play well, wr run good routes, rb move ball on 1st and/or 2nd, 100 plus qbr.
I know it’s late notice, but a friend of mine has two tickets for the Super Bowl in Minneapolis at the new U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday, February 4th.
They are box seats and he paid $3,500 per ticket, which includes the ride to and from the airport, lunch, dinner, a $400.00 bar tab and a pass to the winners locker room after the game.
What he didn’t realize when he bought them last year was that it’s on the same day as his WEDDING.
If you are interested, he is looking for someone to take his place.
It’s at St. Paul’s Church at 3:00pm. Her name is Ashley. She’s 5’4″, about 115 pounds, a good cook, loves to fish and hunt and will clean your truck. She’ll be the one in the white dress.
(and may I add: FLY EAGLES FLY)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUlN0tmW4AECScv.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUoY0SYX0AA2ivz.jpg
Also useful in looking at folks who claim Biblical inspiration yet quote Patriotism at every turn.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DOncbvOWAAA7maX.jpg
Ha; I was talking about more run of the mill fools
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/See_You_at_the_Pole
They don’t seem to produce any tangible results though. It’s not like the put the Happy back into Holidays;-)
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/49995e8aadc201fbacc78d7e84a5c3822bc67d837e01ad8e8abf0333eb7b027d.jpg
This seems to be an appropriate response.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUk-QHtU8AAuWau.jpg
Wooo, Swoop is at the Pro Bowl.
See, who ever said Philly isn’t popular nationally…
Worry about trading Foles this offseason is about ‘putting the cart before the horse’ right now.
I don’t see Roseman trading Foles under any circumstances this offseason either given the severity of Wentz’s injury.
Why needlessly not only jeopardize next season but feel rushed to bring back Wentz for Week 1 even if he had no snaps & little practice time.
If I’m Roseman, you carefully gauge Wentz’s progress and certainly listen to offers on Foles.
Just think he has more incumbent value to the Eagles than what his illicit in a trade (at most a second round pick).
Having Foles let Wentz miss all of Sept it necessary and gives them a reasonable chance to go 2-2/3-1. Teams aren’t finished by a poor Sept bit 1-3/0-4 would be a tough hole to dig out of too. Also makes getting a bye a near impossibility.
Listening to the announcers trying to fluff the Pro Bowl including how players really care is kind of hilarious.
I bet the players have the same level of indifference they have had for years and are less enthiusatic about playing in Orlando vs. Hawaii.
“There was a little girl/who had a little curl/ right in the middle of her forehead. When she was good/she was very, very good/ but when she was bad, she was horrid!”
If I’m Belicheck, I let the Eagles’ try to run and grind all day. Ajayi may break a long run or two but Blount & Clement won’t.
Take away Ertz as much possible too especially on 3rd down and the red zone.
Biggest matchup problem for the Pats’ defense is Agholor. I could see him causing all kinds of problems for the Pats given their slot CB/safeties.
Disagree big time, if you mean by getting 4-5 yards a run (which is league average). If Foles only has to complete a short pass to move the sticks, we’re in really good shape. IMO Belichick will want to make Nick prove it again.
If Brady has 2 weeks to heal and Gronk is back, I bet Belichick thinks his offense can move the ball against this defense and put some points on the board. Consistently been able to do that vs Schwartz’s defensive schemes in the past and have the personnel to do so again.
Pats’ defense gave up yardage all season but they halted big plays they gave up in the first 4-5 weeks and tightened up in the red zone.
Not going to shutdown the Eagles’ offense but they can’t give big plays which lead to TDs and get behind where they have to pass. It will play too much into the strength of the Eagles’ defense.
The Pats played KC, New Orleans, Houston (with Watson), and Carolina in their first 4 weeks. They gave up 42, 29, 33, and 33 points respectively. Those are/were good offenses.
After week 4 they played six games against the AFC Least and two games against bad offenses (Oakland, Denver). Two additional games against mediocre offenses (Atlanta and Tampa) and two game against good offenses (Chargers and Steelers).
The talking heads on TV like to point out how their defense got better, but discounting their toughest opponents just because they came in the beginning of the year is more about talking a team up than actual improvement.
Good point, but on the other hand their DVOA did approve over the course of the season, and that adjusts for opponent strength.
If Foles plays lights out in SB then nothing short of 1st rounder if Carson will be ready which is unlikely and they have another reliable backup especially the way Carson plays which is also unlikely. Philly most likely keeps Foles.
comma, comma, period. comma,
Is this standard to have armed (military?) guards for a Superbowl team?
https://twitter.com/CourtneyRCronin/status/957715174252687362?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E0
The age of terrorism. Must be national guard or police swat.
To keep the Pats from spying.
Most logical explanation.
Rabid, broken-hearted Vikes fans have been forming crowds and they needed to be dispersed. Sad….
Their fans are a bunch of crazy violent drunken criminals!
Just wanted to try it…I don’t see the thrill…
It’s much more satisfying after a humiliating loss.
Passive aggressive mid westerners won’t try anything.
Those Blackwater guys were hired to disperse angry Vikings fans, and also hunt down Negadelphians on internet blogs.
I turned the pro bowl on for less than 5 minutes and turned it off.
That has turned into a worthless event over the years. Nice honor for players. Bad sports viewing.
Me too. . Tried to watch but it was pretty much unwatchable .. wherever it was also looked miserable
I surprised myself and made it to 10 minutes. It was bad.
They need to decide the audience for that. Basketball it’s easy people love watching offense so a no contact game is still fun to watch. Football is the opposite.
Think players get most enjoyment, should just lean into making it for them. Would be good opportunity to put game in foreign country or let players have say in locale.
Or turn it into a skills test. I want to watch QBs throwing balls 50 yards through tires.
I think it would help to vote in an offensive line, instead of individuals. A cohesive OL unit would allow the teams to do a lot more, and might inspire the defense to try.
No.
What they need to do is everyone has to switch sides of the ball and can’t play the inverse position.
I need Centers playing Centerfield. Tackles locked up in press man against a linebacker. Safeties trying to snap the ball.
Now I would watch that.
Chiefs beat both Super Bowl teams in week 1 and 2. Most fans seem to be rooting for Philly.
If Andy Reid could do in the post-season what he does in the regular season he might be the GOAT coach.
Rihanna looking like she could play in place of Hicks
Cardi B destroys Nicki Minaj on Motorsport
Im just trolling the web looking for Eagles content. Found this funny article from ESP (I know, I know). He had apparently predicated an eagles win over the Vikes and Vikes fans let him have it on twitter. Their anger and his responses are pretty funny considering the outcome of the game. I feel like posting this on Viking’s blogs (but I won’t).
http://www.nj.com/eagles/index.ssf/2018/01/vikings_eagles_nfc_championship.html
I don’t know why I looked. I coughed up a click for that.
Pats will come after Foles and try hard to rattle him and/or cause turnovers. Stopping our run game will be the 1A-1B focus of their defense. If they stop our run and pressure Foles into mistakes, it will be very difficult for us to score points.
A fast and effective start is also critical in this game – we cannot fall behind to the Pats.
I’m pretty confident the Eagles can beat the Pats – this is a huge opportunity and I hope to heaven they sieze it with both hands.
Agree. . Previously we gif plain beat or unlucky .. i really think andy in particular let everyone down. .he wasted sons great talent and with the worst wr core we almost. … ahhh but i digress. . I don’t think BB Doug will fail. .he hasn’t failed and he won’t be deterred
Disagree. Andy has been and continues to be a very successful coach.
Pederson has a long way to go to match what Andy has done.
Plus the Pats Andy faced in 2004 was vastly better than this year’s version.
The big differences in that game were our OL failed to protect McNabb and our defense allowed too many big plays. If our Ol can control the LOS and the defense can continue to play well, we have a very good chance.
Actually, Pederson has one more game to win this season to surpass what Andy’s done.
I was going to say something similar. You win the SB, you are the man.
I do agree this Pats team is not as good as 2004.
Said New York Giants fans….
I’m not one of those “Ringzzz iz all dat matterzzz!” guys. That’s probably why I still like Andy -he put up some really entertaining seasons with good teams.
However, winning a championship beats out a dozen long playoff runs every time.
And doing so with your backup QB puts you in the class of very rare HC like Parcells. Arguably trending toward being better than Belichick (who couldn’t get it done without Brady).
How’s that for hyperbole?
Here’s a list of coaches who’ve won the SB with a backup QB:
1970 Colts – Don McCafferty with Earl Morrall (Johnny Unitas was the starter and got hurt during the SB, with Morrall coming off the bench to win, so this wasn’t an entire playoff run like Pederson/Foles have had).
1971 Cowboys – Tom Landry with Roger Staubach (Not sure if a future HoFer just starting his career counts as a “backup” for the purposes of this discussion)
1974 Steelers – Chuck Noll with Terry Bradshaw (see above)
1980 Raiders – Tom Flores with Jim Plunkett (this one definitely counts, and Flores is one of two non HoF coaches that’s clearly done it)
1987 Redskins – Joe Gibbs with Doug Williams (HoF coach)
1990 Giants – Parcells with Hostetler (HoF coach)
1999 Rams – Vermeil with Kurt Warner (Both a HoF coach and a QB who falls under the Staubach/Bradshaw category of guys who shouldn’t count as backups)
2000 Ravens – Brian Billick with Trent Dilfer (also counts, though this was a historically great defense)
2001 Patriots – Belichick with Brady (another case of a HoF coach and a QB who was clearly a backup in name only, as Warner above)
So in SB history, only two coaches who weren’t HoF caliber can truly be said to have done what Pederson will have done if he pulls it off, and one of them (Billick) had the benefit of an all-time great defense in doing so.
who was the starter ahead of Dilfer? I don’t remember someone getting hurt.
I’m tainted against the Pats, but I think there is a strong argument against their inclusion above. Bledsoe was back, healthy, had thrown a TD in the AFC championship game, and BB chose to go back to Brady. Brady, therefore, was not a backup who won the SB.
Tony Banks. He didn’t get hurt, he got benched when the Ravens went multiple weeks without scoring a touchdown.
Tony Banks was the opening day starter for the Ravens that year.
Feel free to exclude the Pats/Brady if you like. This is just using the definition of “won the SB with a QB other than the opening day starter”.
Nice work
I’ve got to disagree with you here.
Andy has longevity and sustained success to his credit to be sure, but he’s reached exactly one Super Bowl in 18 years as a HC, and he’s piled up a litany of playoff failures at this point. Doug matched that in his second year and his first playoff season, without his MVP caliber QB and elite players at several other positions. It’s only one season but IMO it’s more impressive than any single season Reid has a coach. If Doug wins the SB I think you have to say he’s surpassed Reid outright (and I’ve always been a Reid fan).
Disagree, Reid has won everywhere he has been and has more playoff and game wins than Pederson. Could Pederson catch him eventually? Maybe, but he has a long way to go. If Pederson wins the SB, that does change the conversation. I’d love to have that happen.
Literally the only thing Andy has over Doug at this point is longevity.
If you want to say that Doug’s success so far might be a fluke, fair enough. But it’s indisputable that he’s accomplished more through his first two seasons as a coach than Reid did. Unless he completely falls apart it seems very likely he’ll surpass Andy in all those “counting stats” eventually.
I told my daughter in 2006 that AR would never win a SB. Right for 12 years now. He’s a good coach, but Pederson is right there with him in year 2 and, IMHO, will surpass him.
Very few hold our O Line accountable on that game in 04. Total agreement indeed.
..
Andy is the greatest.
Too bad he holds the record for most lost playoff games. It’s Killin his fanbase
you mean – same game plan the Vikings had?
Well, shutting down the run while also getting after the QB is pretty much what every defense tries to do, to every opponent.
We are more dependent on the run than most offenses since it sets up all the RPO and other play action aspects that Foles can execute and our defense benefits from the ball control approach.
Pats will sell to stop the run and force Foles to beat them. If we can establish the run in the 1st quarter, we should be in good shape.
So… are they gonna sell out to come after Foles or sell out to stop the run? Which is it?
Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. The eagles can limit the Pats simply by dominating the offensive and defensive lines. They can have all the schemes and plans in the world, but if our lines out physical them, then they will be playing our game, not theirs.
Again, NO one is attacking the Eagles. Why are folks getting so defensive? We are all Eagles fans, but they are not a perfect team. They have very real flaws and need to make sure they prevent the Pats from exploiting them. If they shut down our run game, we will likely lose.
It’s circling the wagons time, Gary. Seems to go in waves. I’ve always thought it lends credence to Chomsky’s statement that sports is practice for nationalism/war.
They have very real flaws and need to make sure they prevent the Pats from exploiting them. If they shut down our run game, we will likely lose.
What’s annoying me, at least, is that you’re ignoring the fact that the Patriots’ defense has very real flaws as well. In fact, its flaws are far more significant than those of the Eagles’ offense. There was reason to be afraid of the Vikings’ defense, and even the Falcons’ to an extent. There is much less reason to be afraid of the Patriots’. It is flat out not a good defense.
Two possibilities worry me when it comes to ways we could lose this game. One is that Brady picks us apart and they beat us in a high scoring game. The other is that our offense fails to execute and misses on scoring opportunities that are there (penalties, drops, bad Foles shows up, etc.). The Patriots’ lousy defense suddenly morphing into the ’85 Bears and shutting us down is not a possibility that concerns me.
Attacking the Eagles? What?
You said they we going to come after Foles and then you said they we going to sell out to stop the run. So what you’re saying is the Pats are going to sell out to take away the pass game and the run game?
Sure. If the Pats shut down Foles and the pass game and they shut down Ajayi and the run game, we’re in trouble.
I guess I’m just not seeing much content in that. Of course they’d love to shut down the pass game and the run game.
In related news, we’re going to have a real problem winning the game if they’re able to score more points than we are.
Plus points for Mike Tyson quote.
It’s not like trying to get after Nick Foles and forcing him to win the game isn’t something the Vikings tried. It didn’t succeed, because the Eagles’ OL dominated the Vikings’ front four and Foles made them pay for it by burning them with long passes.
The same rules apply for the Patriots, who have a defense that is vastly inferior to Minnesota’s in terms of both talent level and performance. The Vikings have elite players at every level of the defense. The Patriots have guys who are outright liabilities at each level of the defense. Patrick Chung, Eric Rowe, Elandon Roberts, and Kyle Van Noy are not good defensive players. The Eagles’ coaches will scheme to expose them as well.
Again, not sure why any idea than can be construed as negative to the Eagles is trying to be minimized. The Eagles are not 10 pt favorites to win this game; they have flaws and weaknesses just like the Pats do. The game will come down to which team can perform and hide their flaws.
The point again is IF the Eagles do not dominate the LOS and execute on offense, we’re in trouble. That is not negative, that is reality. Our offense, more than many others, needs to control the ball, run the clock and move the chains consistently so that our defense can rest. This is magnified even more with Foles at QB. That is our achillies heel and the Pats know it.
Belichek & Co. know if they derail the run game and force Foles to win the game they will likely get turnovers and expose our defense eventually. This is what the Eagles have to avoid at all costs.
The point again is IF the Eagles do not dominate the LOS and execute on offense, we’re in trouble. That is not negative, that is reality.
Sure, but my point is there no particular reason to expect them to be able to do so when they’re running out a defensive unit that’s dog poop compared to that of the Vikings and has major weaknesses at all three levels of the defense. That is, if the Vikings – a veteran defense featuring half a dozen Pro Bowlers or All Pros, coached by one of the best defensive minds in the game, and which has played together for several years – were unsuccessful in derailing the Eagles, we shouldn’t expect the Patriots to be successful at doing so just because they’re coached by Bill Belichick.
Doesn’t mean the Eagles will play well on offense or win the game, but if they lose it’ll be because their offense doesn’t execute, not because the Patriots are able to magically deny them opportunities in a way the Vikings couldn’t.
So you think if the Pats load up the box, that Foles won’t be able to get the ball to Ertz, Ags, Smith, and Alshon? You fear the Pats LBs and slot corner that much? That the Eagles OL won’t be able to protect Foles from the Pats DL?
Of course it could go wrong. Any given Sunday. Belichick is Satan. Etc. But on paper, you don’t think the Eagles would have the advantage if the Pats sold out to stop the run?
I think Foles, Ertz, and Ags would eat up the LBs if they try that.
exactly.
Billly Davis disagrees.
The Pats have a huge pass rush issue. No one particularly good at it and their LB’s are slow as bajeezus. So it comes down to scheming pressure, which you don’t wan’t to do because that can completely expose an already suspect secondary. They’re best off just trying to play as solid against the run as possible (as you said, but they’re not talented enough to sell out on the run AND ruin Nick Foles’ day), dare Nick Foles to outscore Brady and Gronk (make adjustments at halftime if he starts to).
If Foles comes out on fire and puts pressure on that defense to adjust, and pressure on their offense to keep up, I think we win handily. Huge if though, as pounding the rock may be the most viable option instead of fire-bombing with Foles.
https://youtu.be/rZ274ngweTw
http://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/brandon-graham-derek-barnett-dannell-ellerbe-walk-gamestop
The big distraction Monday will be media night at Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul. It’s going to be a circus. While the Eagles are used to plenty of reporters and cameras in their faces, it’s nothing compared to what they’re going to see from 10-11 p.m. EST Monday. It’s a crazy event.
The Eagles’ media availability Tuesday will be from 1:40 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. EST. Head coach Doug Pederson and 10 players, including Nick Foles, will be available for interviews.
On Wednesday, Pederson, his assistant coaches and players will speak to reporters from 11:15-12:30 p.m. EST. On Thursday, they’ll go from 11:15 to 12:30 p.m. again.
After that, all their obligations are fulfilled. Both teams get to focus on the game Friday and Saturday.
Kickoff at U.S. Bank Stadium is at 6:30 p.m. Sunday.
Is there a party circuit that can distract them ?
Lots of playets nights out ?
“After the Eagles win, the tone changed a bit.” — yeah — I’m not sure that happened at all. If buy “bit” you mean it changed the opinion of 1 person our of every football fan, then sure, I’ll agree. Everybody was saying Eagles won only because of the defense and that fact that Atlanta, statistically compared to last years, wasn’t very good. That Atlanta game didn’t sway anybody into liking Foles.
…..
RE next year — If you have a great system — and all signs are pointing towards the Eagles have a great system for QB’s — they don’t need to break the bank for back up — they can find a cheap version and get him to be serviceable….
Nice analysis…..
https://youtu.be/evxq0sREEHw
https://youtu.be/k-ZiekPkQpE
https://youtu.be/68UDRBKjf7g
What does injury prone mean in the NFL? Cool article. We have some guys with that tag on our team.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/what-does-injury-prone-mean-nfl
Paging Mike.
I was hoping the article would name names, sadly it didn’t.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e6caefa42c6dcdb4666f179649db4f0dde893eb0cb2c1e584ba33d2adad125e.jpg
oh my god if I put this on my fb feed my neighbors will go nuts.
Which is why you should do it.
Pats fans are SOOO much fun to troll. I worked a guy into an apoplectic rage once by repeatedly telling him it was a shame Brady felt the need to break the rules because “he would’ve been a borderline top 10 QB all time without the cheating” and saying nobody was telling him not to enjoy the Patriots success, but that he should just acknowledge that cheating helped them accomplish it and own it. I just kept making the subtle disses and backhanded compliments more and more over-the-top and he got saltier and saltier.
For a bunch of people who should be nothing but happy about their sports fandom, they are a miserable, easily wound up bunch.
They seem to get very offended that other fans aren’t cheering for them and are always trying to argue why they are such a gritty likable team that everyone should cheer for. I don’t know why they can’t just be happy with their success and understand that sustained success will always cause other fans to root against your team.
I guarantee that if we’re lucky enough to have Doug and Carson lead us to a period of sustained dominance, Eagles fans will not have any problem playing the heel. Everybody already hates us and we haven’t even won anything. You can be damn sure we’re going to be utterly insufferable if we do start winning.
Look at that Meme Work… That is seamless, flawless work.
Looks just like BB wearing Eagles gear.
Face, chin, neck, t-shirt… all perfect!
Its because it’s real. He even looks like a maintenance guy!
You all laugh but when the offense gains -200 yards and Monday morning DeFillipo is announced as the Patriots OC………
So if you’re the Eagles, you’re totally sweeping your hotel rooms/meeting rooms for bugs right? I mean you’d be negligent not to.
Gotta make sure the hotel workers aren’t getting bribed as well.
Kempski doesn’t understand how bonus money works. Trading Foles would save the team $7 mill overall, 5.2 next year and 1.8 the following year. Even at $7 mill he’s worth keeping, but you also have to factor in what else the team would get. No brainer for a 1st, likely worth it for a 2nd as well.
Depends on whether he would be traded pre- or post-June 1st.
PRE-6/1 TRADE
2018 Dead Cap: $5,400,000
2018 Cap Savings: $2,200,000
POST-6/1 TRADE
2018 Dead Cap: $3,600,000
2019 Dead Cap: $1,800,000
2018 Cap Savings: $4,000,000
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/nick-foles-9898/
How is there dead money if he gets traded? I thought the contract transferred to the new team. Isn’t dead money only relevant to cuts?
Also, why are we talking about trading our QB 6 days before the biggest game of his life?
Any talk of trades or offseason this week is driving me crazy. I don’t want to think about that yet.
Nick was only signed for 2 years through 2018 but since we were tight to the cap this year and next year, Howie prorated his $3M signing bonus for 5 years through 2021.
His signing bonus is dead money.
The bonus would be paid upon trading him, but according to the site you linked, it is only 600k per year. Your dead money is more than the total bonus from the start.
He has a $3M roster bonus as part of his contract too.
Signing bonus
Over 5 million left in unpaid signing bonus?
Signing bonus been paid, but signing bonuses are pro rated
Don’t bother with xmbk, he has no clue how NFL contracts work and refuses to learn. It’s apparently his thing.
I don’t understand contracts and I really don’t care to, but every time xmbk mentions contracts or the cap they are corrected by others. So to make a claim that Jimmy doesn’t understand it is pretty hilarious.
Those numbers are if they cut him, not if they trade him.
Jimmy is correct. There will be $2.4M in dead money if they trade him (the remainder of his bonus), with a cap savings of $5.2M.
Not according to spotrac.
They’re wrong then.
(Use OverTheCap instead. Spotrac steals most of their numbers from them anyway…)
This will be the longest week of my life. Did my best to stay off Eagles sites last week as I would have gone insane, but I broke down this morning and lets just say my work has not been done today nor will it for the rest of the week.
I laughed out loud after just the first sentence! You ain’t lyin’ man. Geez my blood pressure is moving up!
I havent slept well for 5 days. I keep waking up 2-3 times per night and then it takes me like 10 minutes to fall back asleep. I’ve been killing myself in my row machine the past couple days to eat up all the nervous energy!
https://youtu.be/zL0yCoj7c9E
Was anything that those newscasters were blathering on about based in fact? “They’ve had extra hard practices all week.” Is that connected to reality in any way? I’m curious because I haven’t heard anything about that, and it would be interested to know if they had worked in pads this week again.
But I suspect that 99% of what they were saying was just filler coming out of their heads, totally divorced from objective reality. It’s a shame when newscasts feel that they need to just “fill” space with emptiness. I don’t blame the women involved, just their boss who said, “we’re going to show a long video of people getting off a plane. Just talk. Say whatever comes into your head. Don’t worry about anything but FILLING THAT SPACE!”
Well i read on Thursday they were working in full pads which is pretty rare, and they had really tough practices the week before the Falcons game and the players said they liked them and were positive about it. Think Doug in a press conference also said they were going hard in practice.
Honestly if the team is pretty injury free, and responds well to hard practices then i think it is fine for Doug to run that considering the team has 2 weeks to get over the Vikings win.
Chris Long was apparently asked to compare Eagles practices this week to Patriots last year and he said they were similar. That eagles were pretty tough.
“Long also talked about the work ethic with the Eagles compared to the Pats.
“Honestly, I think the schedule is going to be similar,” Long said of each team’s Super Bowl week schedules. “We work pretty hard here. That’s an underrated thing. Doug is a players coach, but he pushes us. I think we’re going to keep everything the same and we’re just going to get after it.”
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2018/01/29/chris-long-white-house-super-bowl/
He’s not going to say anything bad about either team.
The “pretty” I think means “not as hard” haha.
LOTS OF NI GGERS AND TALKING APES LEADING UP TO THE SB
4.2M bet on the Eagles by 1 person… wonder if it’s Bilzerian !!
OK you got me.
Or Braman?
Bryan ? If anyone from special teams i would guess Grugier Hill. .. bet successful being is 1 more thing he can do
Hope it’s not Bilzerian, that guy is a straight up moron.
Foles makes about that much this year when you include his postseason checks. Double or nothing?
Don’t mention the play that followed it, but remember T.O.’s first catch in the PHI/NE Super Bowl?
Hope we play like that the whole game..
Killing some time by watching the Senior Bowl. Watched Baker Mayfield for the time ever in the Senior Bowl and I’m like damn this kid is really bad.