4th Down

There was a lot of 4th down discussion on Twitter on Sunday. This all started from Jimmy Bama answering a reader’s question.

Question from Desert Eagle: How long do you think it will take for the rest of the league to evolve with analytics, and become as aggressive as the Eagles on 4^th down, etc.? Giants aside, of course.

To note, I answered this during the chat, but I’d like to organize my thoughts on it a little more clearly.

To begin, teams might become more aggressive on fourth down, but I think it’s going to be a long time before another team is as aggressive as the Eagles were last year.

There were three key factors in the Eagles’ aggressiveness.

1. Jeffrey Lurie was on board.
2. Doug Pederson embraced his freedom to make aggressive calls because he had the blessing of the owner, and couldn’t have cared any less about public backlash if the results didn’t go as intended.
3. The Eagles had an overwhelming amount of success on fourth down, which made it easier to continue to be aggressive.

Jimmy expands on his points so go read the piece for his full thoughts.

I certainly agree with Jimmy that other teams are going to be slow to jump on this bandwagon. You need a good offense, to make you feel confident about going for it. You need a good defense, to feel confident you can handle things if the offense doesn’t get the 1st down. Those two simple requirements will eliminate plenty of teams.

I think other teams will want to see what the Eagles do this year. You can bet plenty of guys around the league will believe last year was an anomaly. I’m not talking about the winning, but the success on 3rd an 4th down. Some will want the Eagles to show they can repeat this, especially now that other teams know the Eagles mindset.

Agree with @JimmyKempski that rest of NFL will be slow to copy #Eagles 4th-down aggressiveness, maintaining Philly's competitive edge. Kempski found PHI scored 74 more points from going for it on most 4th downs in the league: https://t.co/sPRY881B9r

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) June 3, 2018

https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/1003318713796481024

This is true. Have asked players. Most don’t talk about analytical advantages. Remember several, Zach Ertz and Lane Johnson specifically, saying it just showed them that Pederson believed in them. https://t.co/LGKg1mm8VB

— Sheil Kapadia (@SheilKapadia) June 3, 2018

Another potential intrinsic benefit is 4th-down aggressiveness impacting *performance on other downs.* #Eagles were far & away NFL's best team in 3rd & long. Were player & coach mindsets/play/playcalling different on 3rd because they knew they were willing to use an extra down?

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) June 3, 2018

For now, the Eagles have a clear advantage. In the past, 4th down was essentially a turnover. The ball goes back to the other team. Now, the Eagles use it as an opportunity and it helps them to extend scoring drives. Think about the pressure it puts on defenses. They can’t breathe a sigh of relief after 3rd down. They have to wait and see what Doug Pederson and the Eagles are going to do. That has to be incredibly frustrating.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out this year.

*****

Sources: The #Browns are signing free agent LB Mychal Kendricks to a 1-year deal, bolstering their linebacking group late in the offseason. Along with Jamie Collins and Christian Kirksey, it could be one of the most talented in football.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) June 3, 2018

Mychal Kendricks on report he is signing with the Browns: 1/2: “No, it’s not accurate. I don’t know who the (bleep) said that. That (bleep) is (bleep). Whoever said that (bleep) is (bleep). That’s all I have to say, man. I’m not really talking to anybody else about it…

— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) June 3, 2018

Kendricks can make more than $3M in 2018, a nice payday in June. With as many packages as they’ll play, the #Browns will be able to utilize Collins, Kirksey, Kendricks and the Pro Bowler Joe Schobert. https://t.co/9F7BD3AeXj

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) June 4, 2018

Bizarre.

My guess is that Kendricks and his agent were using the Browns to try and get a deal from another team. When that didn’t work out, Kendricks did take the Browns deal.

He is in a weird situation. Kendricks has a Super Bowl on his resume. He’s made decent money. CLE is a good scheme fit. They will blitz their LBs and do more creative things than the Eagles. At the same time, they return their MLB and WLB from last year. Both guys started all 16 games and were 1-2 on the team in tackles. The Browns also have Jamie Collins on the roster. You have to wonder how much playing time Kendricks will get.

I wish the guy well. He helped the Eagles win a Super Bowl so I hope he has a great year, gets a huge deal next offseason and has a fantastic life. He had his ups and downs as an Eagle, but ended on a high note.

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