The Eagle Effect

The Chicago Bears have a new head coach, Matt Nagy. There is a lot of excitement, among Bears fans, the Chicago media and football people in general.

Why?

Nagy was the offensive coordinator for the Chiefs in 2016 and 2017, after serving as the QBs coach from 2013-2015. Before that he worked under Andy Reid in Philly, as a low-level assistant. Nagy did some high school coaching before making his way to the NFL.

Any of that sound familiar?

I think a lot of people see Nagy as Doug Pederson Jr. If Pederson could get the Eagles to the top of the hill in just two years, Nagy is a coach to watch and the Bears could be on their way to being a contender.

I've been telling people this #Bears offense will be like nothing fans have ever seen before. My Inside the Huddle column from camp: https://t.co/yiImffTgaj

— Adam Jahns (@adamjahns) July 22, 2018

“That open-mindedness is really cool to see.” At the start of Bears’ training camp, Matt Nagy is already impressing Ryan Pace with his creativity and desire to stay a step ahead. @AlbertBreer's MMQB: https://t.co/UKYSrLEau2

— The MMQB (@theMMQB) July 23, 2018

Bears HC Matt Nagy promises a physical camp. When I was with The Eagles in 2012 Andy Reid ran the most physical camp I had seen since I was with Giants and Parcels. Nagy will be just like his mentor, no more country clubs

— Greg Gabriel (@greggabe) July 19, 2018

Yeah, I’m not sure the team you want to be compared to is the 4-12 Eagles that couldn’t block and wouldn’t tackle.

I think there should be enthusiasm for Nagy and the Bears. I also think we have to be careful in assuming every Reid disciple is going to be Pederson. While Nagy has a similar background, there are some key differences.

Nagy has never been a head coach. Pederson’s experience as a high school head coach was fodder for his critics, but it turned out that those years actually served him well in developing coaching skills and ideas.

Nagy never played in the NFL. He was a good player in the Arena League, but compare that to Pederson. While Pederson didn’t play much, he learned from Don Shula, Mike Holmgren, Andy Reid, Mike Sherman and countless top flight assistants. Pederson got to serve as a mentor to Brett Favre, which certainly seems to have helped him deal with NFL QBs.

Pederson also got to soak up years of experience in NFL locker rooms. He was brilliant last year at reading his team and knowing what to say. That wasn’t by accident. That wasn’t luck. Pederson was part of a Super Bowl winner in 1996 and terrific teams in 1997 and 1998. He was on losing teams and average teams. Pederson knows what works and what doesn’t. He is a great communicator and motivator.

Nagy is smart. He seems to be creative and open-minded. He’s hired some good coaches and has a chance to succeed. I just think expecting him to be an offensive guru and top flight coach might be pushing things. If he turns out to be a terrific coach, that’s great. The league needs as many talented coaches as possible. He could turn out to be the next Doug Pederson. Or he could be the next Adam Gase.

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The Eagles embraced analytics and it helped them become a great team. There is a lot of talk about how other teams will now do the same thing. This sounds great in theory, but you have to wonder how many teams will truly use analytics consistently and effectively.

Think about going for it on 4th down. You can’t just do that when you’re at the opponents 38-yard line. You need to do it on the other side of the 50 as well. You need to do it when up three points as well as down three points.

Most coaches are creatures of habit. Most of them tend to be conservative, living by the mantra that more games are lost than are won. Taking chances isn’t something that comes naturally, unless late in a game when the situation is desperate.

What is an owner going to say the first time his coach goes for it on 4th down and fails to convert, only to see the opponent score off a short field? Will that owner tell his coach to stick with the analytics or to quick taking dumb chances? How will fans and the media respond to the coach? I think we all know that.

It is easy to praise analytics when the team uses them well and wins. That won’t happen for every team.

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The Eagles had a creative, aggressive offense last year. Do you remember the 2016 version?

With a rookie QB, mediocre skill players and an O-line that missed players due to injury and suspension, the offense focused on the short passing game. The Eagles were 22nd in yards and 16th in points. Not many people were trying to copy Doug Pederson’s playbook.

When you have great blocking, star QBs and skill players who can make big-time plays, that changes things. You can start with basic runs and passes. You can mix in RPOs. You can run a flea-flicker or the Philly Special. None of that works without the right blocking and execution.

Dallas talks about running a more Dak-friendly offense. Maybe. If you watch All or Nothing, Jason Garrett sounds like a Big Ten coach from 1980. “Let’s run the ball. Let’s out-physical our opponents.” Is that team really going to be creative?

Jon Gruden has made multiple references to bringing back 1998. The man who once obsessed on Chip Kelly and his cutting-edge offense doesn’t sound like someone who wants to let go of his old playbook. The Raiders signed a FB in free agency. Nothing says cutting edge like a position that doesn’t exist for most teams anymore.

Part of the genius of Doug Pederson is that he’s not married to any idea or specific philosophy. He takes ideas from all over and mixes them together. Some coaches are in love with their playbooks. Pederson pushes his assistants to gather new ideas and find plays for him to check out. I can’t tell you how rare that is for an NFL coach.

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Teams can learn a lot from the Eagles and what happened in 2017, but I don’t know how much of this will actually happen. The talking heads would lead you to believe the success of the Eagles will push other teams to emulate them. I think that will happen, but on a much more limited basis than what is expected.

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