Mocking the Mock

I posted my first mock draft of the season on Monday. That led to a variety of reactions and questions. Let me address some of those here.

First, here is what I had happening:

1 – WR Brandon Aiyuk – Arizona State
2 – WR Chase Claypool – Notre Dame
3 – DL Jason Strowbridge – UNC
3 – S Josh Metellus – Michigan
4 – LB Markus Bailey – Purdue
4 – CB Darnay Holmes – UCLA
4 – OT Charlie Heck – UNC
5 – DB Brian Cole – Mississippi State
5 – RB La’Mical Perine – Florida
6 – LB Shaquille Quarterman – Miami

Now for some thoughts.

The Big 3

Some of you think the Eagles cannot miss out on getting one of CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs or Jerry Jeudy. Those are the top three WRs and we’d all love to get one. I don’t see them falling to 21 and I don’t want the Eagles to move up. This team needs youth. They need depth and speed. Howie Roseman needs to use as many picks as possible.

This is a deep, talented class of WRs. The big three are the best prospects, but history tells us that they may not be the best three players. If one of them was so perfect you felt you had to get him, I might be open to moving up. I don’t see any of them as great prospects so I’d rather not move up for them.

PAC-12

Nelson Agholor and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside both played in the Pac-12. Both got off to slow starts with the Eagles. Agholor developed, but overall was a disappointment based on being a mid-first rounder. JJAW is a total mystery. Should the Eagles avoid Pac-12 WRs?

I think you have to judge them as individuals. Aiyuk is different than them on the field. Is he more NFL ready mentally/emotionally? Only scouts who have done a deep dive on him could tell you that. We don’t even know if the Eagles like him. This was strictly a guess on my part.

Justin Jefferson vs Aiyuk

Jefferson is the better overall prospect. I don’t think there is a substantial difference, but Jefferson is better.

Is he the better fit? That’s the key question. Jefferson played in the slot at LSU. He’s got the speed to play outside, but his breakout season came with him eating up slot defenders.

While Jefferson ran faster in Indy than Aiyuk, you have to watch the game tape. Aiyuk looks faster on the field. You see an explosive burst from him. He shows the traits the Eagles could really use. Aiyuk was the better playmaker. Jefferson was the better receiver.

The Eagles might love the thought of Jefferson. Again, I’m guessing. A workhorse receiver who is at his best in the slot doesn’t feel like what this offense needs from my perspective. I think Jefferson is a terrific prospect and will be a good pro. I’m just not sure about the fit.

Speed

Some of you felt this class wasn’t fast enough. Claypool ran a 4.42 at the Combine at 230 pounds. Agholor ran a 4.42 at his Combine at 198 pounds. Think about that for a second.

Aiyuk ran 4.50 at 206 pounds. The most productive WRs in the NFL tend to run in the low 4.5 range. Aiyuk has plenty of speed. I’ve written about this before, but guys who run blazing fast tend to not pan out in the NFL. Receivers must have good body control. You can’t run crisp routes at 4.27. You can do that at 4.50.

The problem the Eagles had in 2019 was too many slow guys. Alshon looked like a 4.7 guy. He was painfully slow at times. Greg Ward ran a 4.58 at his Pro Day so he’s never been a blazer. JJAW is a 4.5 guy, but wasn’t running like that last year. He was struggling mentally and that slowed him down. Agholor has okay speed, but he’s not a good vertical receiver so that negates his ability to run.

Guys like DeSean and Tyreek Hill are anomalies. When you find a blazer who can play in the league, that’s special. Most of the time it doesn’t work out.

Misc Thoughts

Too many people see mock drafts as what you want to happen. That’s not what they are for me. This is a potential draft scenario. What do I like about it? What don’t I like? What did I learn from it?

In reflection, the Eagles might want to draft three WRs. Get a couple early and then add one late. They are trying to fix that position. There is something to be said for going with numbers.

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It is possible…possible…that Jerry Jeudy could fall to 21. It is not likely. A month ago, I would have said there is no way that happens. Post Combine, I wonder if Jeudy could slide just a bit. It would be great if the Eagles could get him at 21.

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Part of me wants to target a safety in the second round. There are going to be some very good options. That is a position the Eagles must get fixed. I’m sure there will be some serious debates internally over who/what to target in the second.

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While I don’t want Howie to trade up, moving back from 21 might make sense. Drop back 6-10 spots. You would still have good WR options. Denzel Mims. Aiyuk. Jefferson. Tee Higgins. Jalen Reagor. There would be some interesting choices.

You wouldn’t get a lot for moving back, but you could then use those picks to move up in another round. Maybe the second or third. Or maybe you want to draft 11 or 12 players. You know a certain percentage will fail so why not load up to improve your odds.

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