The Mysterious Pats

The Eagles last played the Patriots in 2019, losing 17-10 in an ugly defensive battle. The Eagles have a lot of new faces since then, but the Patriots are almost completely different. Heck, a lot has changed for the Patriots since last year. This is a bit of a mystery team.

The Pats are coming off an 8-9 season when they had a good defense and mediocre offense. Mac Jones is back for his third season as the starting QB. But which version of Jones? There was the promsing rookie from 2021 who threw 22 TDs and had a passer rating of 92.5. Last year Jones struggled, throwing only 14 TDs and finishing with a rating of 84.8.

One of the big reasons Jones struggled is poor coaching. We can argue just how good of a defensive coach Matt Patricia is, but he was a bad offensive coordinator. In all honesty, it was a job he should have never had so in a way it’s hard to blame him. As Bill Belichick has gotten older, he’s made some odd decisions. There is no questioning his ability to build a brilliant gameplan or to teach players, but it is more than fair to question his roster building and staff decisions.

Belichick brought back Bill O’Brien to run the Pats offense. That does seem like a prudent decision, but O’Brien hasn’t had a top flight offense in the NFL since 2011. He did good things with Alabama the past two years so maybe he’ll have fresh ideas that can reinvigorate the Pats attack.

We don’t know if O’Brien will do a great job, but Jones will have better coaching and that should help him. Coaching is only part of the equation. QBs have two other key needs: protection and weapons. New England isn’t great in either area.

The OL is a real mystery due to injuries.

The Patriots have placed OL Riley Reiff on injured reserve, meaning he is out a minimum of 4 games.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 4, 2023

OL Conor McDermott and CB Isaiah Bolden have been placed on injured reserve, meaning they are ineligible to play in 2023.

— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) August 29, 2023

Patriots practice report:

LIMITED PARTICIPATION
OT Trent Brown – Illness
CB Jack Jones – Hamstring
OL Mike Onwenu – Ankle
WR DeVante Parker – Knee
G Cole Strange – Knee

— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) September 6, 2023

Jones is a pocket passer. He needs good protection. He’s not the kind of QB who can make plays with his legs. He’ll be missing his RT (Reiff) and possibly another starter. Multiple OL have been banged up this summer so even if they play, it might not be a smooth performance.

That’s bad news when going against the Eagles. They will have one of the best pass rush units in the league. There is also a good chance the Eagles score a decent amount of points so New England can’t just run the ball and be conservative.

The Pats weapons are more of the ball control variety.

• RB Rhamondre Stevenson
• RB Ezekiel Elliott
• TE Hunter Henry
• TE Mike Gesicki
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

That’s not exactly the ’99 Rams. Jones can move the ball with them, but big plays won’t come easily. Some teams were able to play small-ball effectively against the Eagles last year. Jonathan Gannon is gone so this will be a good test for Sean Desai. How will he try to stop the Pats?

The Pats defense does return a lot of talent and experience. They were 8th in yards allowed and 11th in points allowed last year. As good as they were, NE gave up 30 or more points in five games last year. They are vulnerable.

Belichick has had all offseason to figure out how to deal with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense. You know he’s going to have some creative looks and ideas for how to handle the Eagles.

Not suggesting that it will be apples-to-apples to how the Patriots handle the Eagles offense on 1st & 2nd downs or that it’ll work, because they’re a completely different beast now than they were in 2021, but to start out, I suspect Belichick looks to the way Todd Bowles went… https://t.co/CKW8Jx2IT7 pic.twitter.com/oMOHPHYwci

— Honest NFL (@TheHonestNFL) September 6, 2023

Nick Sirianni, Brian Johnson, Kevin Patullo and Jeff Stoutland have had all offseason to figure out to attack the Pats. This will be an interesting battle schematically.

As Jimmy Bama pointed out in his matchups piece, one advantage for New England could be pass rusher Josh Uche vs Jordan Mailata.

Bonus matchup: Pats undersized edge rusher Josh Uche (6’1, 245, 11.5 sacks in 2022) is the type of player who tends to give Jordan Mailata problems. I’d be less concerned about Lane Johnson working against underrated star player Matthew Judon (15.5 sacks in 2022), because, well, Johnson pretty much erases everyone he faces.

Remember the Houston game? Jerry Hughes gave Mailata fits. Sirianni took some of the blame for that, but small rushers give the big guy a hard time. He’s got a tall build and that makes it tough to bend and get his hands on them while moving back in pass pro.

The Pats have a rookie CB in Christian Gonzalez. You can bet the Eagles will test him with DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown, a pair of kinda decent receivers.

Devin McCourty retired and is no longer running their secondary so it will be interesting to see if that causes any issues.

One area where the Patriots might have an advantage is STs. That is normally a strength for them and it was an inconsistent group for the Eagles last year. Several of the top STers from that unit are gone so it will be interesting to see how they perform on Sunday.

This is the first time the Eagles have faced the Pats without Tom Brady since 1999. The Pats were a juggernaut in the meetings that followed that year. We have to re-wire our brains. The Pats are no longer an elite team with a Hall of Fame QB and lots of big time talent. We’ll see how things play out on Sunday, but this is the first time the Eagles go into a PHI-NE game as the clear favorite.

Feels good to say that.

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