What About a TE?
Posted: February 1st, 2017 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 156 Comments »One of the questions some people have asked me is whether the Eagles could be interested in a TE with their 1st round pick. The focus is Alabama star O.J. Howard, the 6-5, 249 prospect who comes up so big in national title games. Would Howard make sense for the Eagles?
Howard has a good frame. He runs well. He shows potential as a blocker. He is a good receiver who can make athletic plays. Every team in the NFL would love to have a guy like that. The question is whether TE is worth a pick that high for a team that already has a solid group in Zach Ertz, Brent Celek and Trey Burton.
The obvious answer is that if the Eagles have Howard rated highly enough, they take him. After all, we preach that you don’t draft for positions and that you trust your draft board. That said, when you make your draft board you do stack the order with position in mind when players have the same or very similar grades.
The Eagles could carry 4 TEs. They would all play some on STs so that makes it possible to go heavy at that spot.
Howard would be an interesting player to add to the mix because of his size and speed. Doug Pederson used multiple TEs effectively in 2016, but the pairings were less than ideal. Ertz is a good receiver and can be an effective blocker. Celek is a good blocker, but has athletic limitations as a receiver. Burton lacks ideal size, but is a good athlete. That helps him as a receiver, but hurts him as a blocker. If you put Howard and Ertz on the field at the same time, you would have 2 TEs that defenses would have to see as complete players. That play could be a run or a pass.
If you really want an offensive weapon, Miami TE David Njoku would be another possibility in the 1st round.
Njoku isn’t as big as Howard. He isn’t as good a blocker. But Njoku is a special athlete who looks like a big WR at times. He is only a Redshirt Sophomore, but scored more TDs in 2016 than Howard did in his career at Bama. That should give you an idea just how much of a playmaker Njoku was.
Njoku has a chance to be a better version of Jared Cook. You might remember him.
Them @packers though! #gopackgo Thank you @JaredCook89! #amazingcatch pic.twitter.com/llOGUTHalT
— Schneider (@SchneiderCareer) January 17, 2017
If the Eagles love either of these guys, adding them does make some sense. Njoku can be an offensive weapon. I’m not sure if Howard fits that description, but he’s probably close. Carson Wentz needs weapons.
The flip side to this is that you can find good TEs outside the 1st round. Celek was a late round pick. Cook was a mid-round pick. Gronk and Jimmy Graham went outside the 1st.
There is no right or wrong answer, as long as the Eagles are able to find guys that can catch the football and make plays.
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[…] Tommy Lawlor One of the questions some people have asked me is whether the Eagles could be interested in a TE […]
Tommy thinks outside the box. I always appreciate that. I just think there is 0 chance we take the stud TE at #14. Our needs are so apparent that drafting a TE with a slightly better grade at 14/15 slot in draft over a CB or WR or DE just isn’t going to happen.
Exactly. Good winter discussion, but the likelihood of a solid DB or WR being there is high. Neither of these guys impacts the team like a top DB or WR would.
True, but how do you know a “top” DB or WR will make it to 14?
Just said the likelihood was high, based on the talent available. Could be wrong, maybe 4-5 CB and 2 WR will go in the top 10. But I doubt it. You have to look at it from the point of view of other teams.
I could really be ok with Howard at 14. Id prefer Wilson, tabor or Lattimore though
Im not sure Celek or Burton should prevent the Eagles from drafting Howard
True!
“Celek was a late round pick.” — Is that supposed to mean something? Celek is good to OK. He’s not great. He isn’t a game changer. Ertz is pretty good. Again, not great. Celek is on his way down(and out). T-Law listed the limitations of the TE’s. I think Ertz can be a huge weapon. For that to happen, they need better weapons at WR and RB(not saying Eagles need a new RB if a young gun can step up). If the WR corps are improved AND RB’s take a step up, that’ll open up the offense for Ertz. Better wr’s = a better Ertz. I’d be shocked(not upset) if Eagles go TE with pick 1.
It does mean something, he was a steal in the late rounds. The backbone of your team should be guys like Celek. You can only have so many prima donnas, no matter how athletic they may be. No way you categorize Celek as “ok”, unless you are just talking about potential for 2017.
Yeah, you don’t stay in the league for 10+ years unless you’re doing something right,
We can agree to disagree. 10+ plus years on an ‘ok’ team isn’t saying much. He’s an avg. TE. Nothing great. I didn’t say he was bad. And it doesn’t mean I don’t like him. Celek is ‘ok’.
He has the fourth most receptions in team history. He has the eighth most receiving yards (and he could have had more but was often asked to be a blocker on teams with shit OL).
No one is saying he’s going to the hall, but he’s arguably the best TE in team history.
In 2009 he had the fourth most yards of TEs. In 2011 he was 7th.
In Eagles history? Come on. How is that putting anything in perspective? He had 2 decent years. Not 5. He was a solid player during a time where TE’s were being utilized a bit more. He was ok. Team history? Now that’s funny.
Well the top TE in terms of yards and receptions played from 56-66.
Team History isn’t perspective? An 84 year old organization isn’t perspective? This isn’t the Texans.
But I guess it’s HOF or you’re just kinda blah. McNabb just ok. Runyan just ok.
Chuck, Dawk, and Reggie? They are good.
Everybody else, meh.
Chad Lewis was ok. Brent Celek was legitimately good.
Coach —
The best Eagles TEs were a pair of 1st Rd picks who made All Pro as rookies — but were gone 3 years later.
1973 – Charlie Young, USC
1988 – Keith Jackson, OU
Young traded to Rams for Jaws after ’76.
KJ a free agent after ’91.
Don’t disagree that, factoring in longevity, Celek’s the best the Eagles have had.
No Pete Retzlaff?
I think you are underestimating his blocking ability. Very few TE’s in the NFL can block as well as Celek.
Celek is an OK receiver, but an excellent blocker.
You’re not using good evidence to back up your gut instinct on the guy. Yards, catches, and the quality of the team around him are very poor indicators of his ability. TE is a little like OL, you don’t really notice them under normal circumstances. It’s true that Celek is not some kind of freak like Gronk or Tony Gonzalez. but he is in the next tier down. For example, he was in the top 10 for DVOA 2 of the last 3 years. DVOA measures efficiency, which is more important than volume.
To me, much of the argument seems to hinge on the debate between what qualifies as “o.k.” and what qualifies as “good.” I see a bunch of guys making the same points and some of them want to call the player “good” while the others want to call him “o.k.”
Maybe it would be more helpful to create a less subjective rating system. If we could somehow create a ranking system for TEs from 1-10 (or 100 if people don’t like decimals)… then we may find that “o.k.” on that scale means 6.5 and that “good” means 7.5… in that case, the argument may be justifiable. But if “o.k.” means 7.0 and “good” means 7.2… then perhaps the opinions are roughly the same.
Brady is a steal in late rounds. Celek is good. Not arguing that. But he’s not great. He was very serviceable. He’s a tough dude. No question.
no no, brady wasn’t a steal, Kurt Warner was a steal, he wasn’t even drafted.
Come on dude, are we doing this? If you aren’t arguably the greatest QB of all time coming out of the late rounds, you don’t make the cut for being considered a “steal”?
you’re stuck on the name. not getting the point…
fine, here’s the point, your expected value of draft picks is astronomically way too high. If you got a reliable starter out of the later rounds you have a steal. The expected value of 1st and second round picks are starters, not probowler/ HoF, they are in the first round because they have that potential.
Agree to disagree, but there is science behind this. Go ahead and look at what the average 5th round pick pans out. If you get solid depth, that’s ok, most wash out of the league. Get a 10 year starter? That’s a steal.
For every one of your “steals”, I can name a 1st round failure. When was Peters drafted again?
ok maybe you’re right, I think I’m missing your point.
I was saying the expected value of a first round pick is being a starter, which is why we label them busts when they aren’t. On the flip side the perennial pro-bowlers and HOFers are most represented by first round picks. So the expected value is neither bust, nor Pro-bowl, but a starter.
In the case of a 5th rounder
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2013&round=round5#round5
would the average player (expected value) on this list in the 5th round, how many of these names do you recognize, how many do you expect to be in the league 10 years as a starter? There are a couple nice players to be had. Celek was one such player. That’s a steal in a depth/competition round.
For perspective, here’s the 5th round Celek came out of.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2007&round=round5#round5
He is a steal, no way around it. No one got more out of their 5th round pick than us.
Brady was the steal of a lifetime. Teams would love to get all Celeks in the late rounds. He was not great, but he was definitely better than ok.
what word do would you like to use? Avg? He produced expected results from where he was drafted….
That’s the part I completely disagree with. Given that he was a solid contributor for more than twice as many years as the average career, with an extended span of above average years, I just can’t agree with saying he gave expected return for a day 3 pick.
So you just agreed with what Tommy said… you can find “good” TE outside of the 1st round. You called Celek good.
To me you’re arguing for the sake of arguing.
it’s a case of nobody likes to call their own baby ugly. Here are some numbers on Celek. These rankings don’t include variables like if he was hurt and missed time or other TE’s were hurt and missed time.
2008 — 27 catches.
2009 — ranked 4th in TE’s — 971 yards 8 td
2010 — ranked 19th
2011 — ranked 10th
2012 — ranked 22th
2013 — ranked 14th
that was just a quick research to throw out some numbers. Other variables include QB’s too. Again, he wasn’t bottom of the barrel talent. Nor was he at the top. He was ok….
Of course, the fact that blocking matters so much at TE is being overlooked here as well.
but that deviates from the discussion….TE’s that produce. Again — Celek was good. Just because I’m an Eagles doesn’t mean I have to put every Eagles into the HOF. I get it, one of the best all time Eagles etc etc etc. Compare him to other TE’s during his time — and he’ll be right around the 12th to 15th spot. Maybe he’s 10th to 12th spot? I won’t argue that. He’s still who he is… a good TE. He had 1 very good year and 1 good year in a 10 year span. He’s not an elite TE. Is he a club house leader? Probably. He probably is a great veteran teacher too. Along with blocking, those are not what I’m talking about.
I didn’t see where blocking was excluded from the discussion. Has Jason Peters not produced? At any rate, I’m ok with not calling him elite. I disagreed with calling him average, or “ok”. I also think most teams would be very happy to get all players like him with late round picks.
I’d prefer a WR, CB, or DE in the first, but you could probably convince me of drafting almost any position in the first round.
We just need to add a guy who is really top notch football player. We lack enough really difference making players on this team.
If they take a TE early, JMatt has to be traded and on the first plane out of town.
I see what you are saying, and I agree JMatt is better in the slot than he is outside, but is there anyone on the team who is better on the outside than JMatt right now? It might be a bit premature to start the preflight checklist.
He would be incredibly redundant and two coaching staffs have now determined he can’t play outside.
And we already have a cheap slot guy in Paul Turner for the occasion when we’re not running 2 (or 3) TEs.
Paul Turner will not make the roster this year.
So, as an outside receiver, who is he behind?
The 8 ball.
This is like saying who is Paul Turner behind as an outside receiver. I don’t think he’s got a skillset conducive to it.
Look at what NE does. They play with 2 slots frequently.
You can’t have a TE, 2 slot, and a RB. I mean you could but it’s gonna bunch up the shit out of your formation and that’s not conducive to the type of slot guys we have, works better with short shifty guys.
Yeah. That’s another reason why I lean against a TE at this point, no matter how good. We can only do so many things. To sign another TE and negate the value of the 1 receiver that’s any good is a poor choice at this time…it would just use a pick for a slight upgrade when there are big holes to fill at WR, DB, DE that need 1st or 2nd round talent. ( Other holes, RB, G, DT, 3QB are for later rounds.)
I wouldn’t hate the pick – Celek is on his last legs and Burton is not an inline TE. Think Howard can do more blocking that Ertz naturally, and having a pair of top 10 TE’s who can both block and run good routes would be such a challenge for opposing defences.
If the the defence comes out with base defence and the safety in the box, spread out the TE’s wide and make LB’s try to cover Ertz/Howard in space. If they go big nickle or nickle and leave 1 safety high and match up 2 DB’s on Ertz/Howard you run it down their throats. This works especially well if you have a legitimately talented receiving option at RB, where they will be so stretched to match up inside that you almost guarantee they will be covered by a LB and probably not even the best coverage one and you can exploit that as well.
Only issue is that it does nothing to address our outside WR position, and renders our only NFL quality WR in Matthews pretty redundant. Combine that with the trouble Wentz has had throwing to his TE’s so far – it is one of his weakest area’s of his game – they really didn’t throw much to TE’s at NDS, means it is hardly the most efficient use of draft resources.
Njoku if there in the 2nd (unlikely but possible) might be too good to pass up but i cannot believe he will be the best player on the Eagles board at 14.
I kinda remember Wentz having more success throwing at Ertz (and to a lesser extent, Burton) than anyone else on the team. Did I dream that?
I’ve been thinking about this possibility since the beginning of this years draft conversations. We run the most 12 and 13 personnel in the league, pederson loves using tight ends.. And having an explosive, dependable weapon like howard would be great for a young qb…the benefits would be two-fold –, the blocking prowess plus the ability as a playmaker will help the whole offense. Not to mention most of the teams in our division (and our conference) are really bad against the tight end.
I watched this kid TORCH clemson last year for 208 yards and a couple TDs. Wentz tends to throw the ball high..whats better than having a 6’6 beast as a safety valve and/or a integral part of the gameplan?
I’d love a scenario where we trade back a couple spots…nab OJ ..take quincy wilson in the 2nd and an Alvin kamara joe mixon or kareem hunt in the 3rd or 4th.
But of course everything hinges on what we do in free agency and post combine results
Thinking about what the Patriots almost had before Hernandez went crazy, I can think of worse problems to have than too many tight ends.
Your post made me think of this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YQw6KLJGf8
If my post made you think of that I believe I need to spend some time in quiet reflection this weekend.
Should I not click on this at work?
I’m a big fan of multiple tight ends around the house. My wife doesn’t like that idea, but competition brings out the best in all of us.
And yet, you’ll undoubtedly waste your selection on a wide receiver…
Brings new meaning to scat back?
I’ve been banging the drum for a 5th round, tall, developmental blocking TE since I gave up on the season. If they think they can create a good game plan around Howard and Ertz, I’ll be happy with the pick. Less so with Njoku, because I think they really need a blocker. Ertz is already the pure receiving TE, even though he’s no longer awful at blocking. They need a guy who at least is good at blocking and can be a possession receiver. But I guess if they take Njoku, they figure they can gameplan it appropriately, and I’ll give them the opportunity to show what they can do before trashing the pick.
Sprinkle
That would work.
Njoku “Had eight drops over last two seasons for drop rate over 11 percent.”
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/david-njoku?id=2557986
With the right coaching the Eagles can get him up to a cool 15%.
Another dropsie, just what we need. lol
ew
Cap savings if they cut Celek only $1M this year but $4M next. I wonder if they take a TE in rounds 3-5 this year with an eye on moving on next year from Brent.
I would think that moving on from Celek is a possibility that is considered regardless. For an NFL career, his body is already on borrowed time.
Celek has one more year here, sadly. I love that guy.
I wouldn’t mind if they moved on at all from Celek at this point. It isn’t so much the savings but just how terribly limited he was last year.
Not even a red zone threat anymore and just much of a third-down option either.
The only reason they won’t get rid of him this year is that he’s still a decent enough #2 TE, but with only a $1M savings if cut, he’d cost more to replace at this point. Next year, however, there’s almost no chance he’s still here with $4M out of his $5M cap hit fully recovered if cut.
I’ve been looking at Sprikle from Arkansas as a guy to draft this year and then swap in for Celek full time in 2018.
How about Jake Butt? Could be a value pick due to his injury and would allow us to easily replace Celek in 2018.
Yes please. And in three years down the line Butt will line up next to Buffalomeat on our O Line..
Question is- what is his value now? No doubt he will come back from the injury, but is he worth a 2nd this year? A 3rd? He’d easily be a 1st if he wasn’t injured- but that’s not the case now.
If he’s there with our 3rd; maybe. But that’s a big maybe.
I think he was a 2nd/early 3rd pre-injury. I’d take him in the 4th if he was available. You are losing him for a year. That has to affect his value.
OJ Howard basically looks a bit like Ertz before the catch, then the comparison stop entirely..
Re: SB Winners with a TE picked in Rd 1
In the post-merger era of 1967-2000, a total of 35 TEs were selected in Rd 1.
Of those 35, only 1 started for the team that drafted him in a winning SB.
Dallas’s Billy Joe Dupree, ’73 draft, SB winner ’77.
Only 1 other 1st Rd TE played for his selecting team in a winning SB.
Steelers’ Bennie Cunningham, ’76 draft, 2x SB winner in ’78-’79. But he mostly played behind Temple alum Randy Grossman at TE for Pittsburgh.
And the Steelers Mark Bruener is the only other 1st Rd TE in this period to play on a SB-losing team. (1995 v. Dallas.)
Just 1 SB winning starter out of 35 selected. Over 34 years.
Since 2001, the numbers have improved substantially.
In the past 16 drafts, teams have selected 16 TEs in Rd 1.
Of those 16 players, 3 have started on 4 SB-winning teams.
– Heath Miller, Pittsburgh (2x)
– Daniel Graham, Patriots
– Dallas Clark, Colts
And 3 other Rd 1 TEs started for SB-losing teams.
– Vernon Davis, 49ers
– Greg Olsen, Bears
– Ben Watson, Patriots
(plus Heath Miller, Steelers)
NOT ARGUING “CAUSATION.” Just noting the change in a trend.
______________
Is having having talented TEs important in the post-modern NFL?
What does Bill Belichick think? [Not a fan. Just looking at his approach.]
The Patriots used a 1st Rd pick in 2002 and again in 2004 on TEs.
In fact, from 2001 – 2010, the Pats drafted 7 TEs in Rds 1-4.
______________
So what about the Eagles selecting OJ Howard with the 14/15th pick?
I went on record on 1/29/17 advocating that the Birds choose Howard.
A complete match-up nightmare — especially on the edge.
And I have the suspicion he’d be great on fade routes.
CAVEAT: If the Pats trade QB Garoppalo to Cleveland for the Birds’ 1st Rd pick, 12th overall . . . I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pats take Howard.
I always wondered if Belichick loves TE’s for his ideal offense or if he just made the best of circumstance. 2010 they pick Gronk in the 2nd and Hernandez in the 4th, both are top tight end’s in the league, Randy moss is gone, hey now we’re a team that likes 2 TE sets, run the ball and gash with TE, Fire-bombing the league with the deep ball is out. I always respect the simplicity of Belichick. What do we do best against who we’re playing this week? Run the ball? Ok we’re doing that, a lot, 50 runs this game. It’s rare to see him try to force a round peg into a square hole. His scheme always is designed around circumstance.
If there’s even a chance at Keith Jackson 2.0… I’m there.
Jackson made Cunningham early on. Cunningham never was the same here or as effective after he left even after they upgraded the WRs with Williams and Barnett.
Cheap Norman Braman strikes again. The guy didn’t have 10 cents to put out to keep talent here, but has endless millions to dump into elections……THAT HE POCKETED FROM OUR CITY
https://www.opensecrets.org/outsidespending/donor_detail.php?cycle=2016&id=U0000004559&type=I&super=S&name=Braman%2C+Norman
Great discussion and topic as always Tommy (and the community). The Eagles are on record this year stating already that they have had more success drafting at 20 or before compared with after 20 in Round 1.
Question- is it worth it to even consider dropping back 4-5 spots in Round 1 to pick up more ammo in the middle/late rounds? We seem to have not just a lot of holes to fill with veteran players in the next year or two, but we have serious depth issues along most of the team as well.
What would you do?
FWIW.
Douglas is an Ozzie Newsome-trained personnel exec.
In the past 16 drafts . . .
The Ravens have traded down only 2x — while trading up 6x.
In the 2 drafts where the Ravens traded down in Rd 1, they went from 30 to 35. And 25 to 43.
It’ll be interesting to see how much influence Douglas wields in this draft; Howie knows that his professional reputation is at stake and players in this game don’t easily put their ego and pride aside and let others make those judgments/decisions.
I’m hoping that his “year away” studying while Chip was in charge brought about a renewed sense of “do your job, and let others do their job”. Hire the right employees, and reap the rewards along with them.
Going to be an interesting 3 months once free agency and the draft begin. We need to use the newness and unknown of our situation to the highest possible advantage while we can- with Chip, it was easy to see the types of players (Height, Weight, Scheme) we would target. Right now it feels more like an open season on whomever.
As Bart Scott once famously said, “Can’t Wait!”
So the 14 times they stayed in the first round and picked in what we expect are the mid to late 20s….
I love your fact-filled and informative posts. Always add to the discussion and usually are quite timely.
AC is literally a human encyclopedia of facts. And, it’s almost always things that would be extremely difficult to just Google and post. I’m pretty sure he just pulls this stuff out of his Mensa level memory. Definitely one of my favorite posters on this board.
I preface by stating I am not a scout and did not watch anything on Howard other than the highlight real above during my lunch break. I don’t get the hype. Maybe there is a better highlight video I’m missing.
I saw a TE running wide open and making simple catches. Only 2 catches appeared impressive and none were contested. Before you rip me, watch Zach Ertz’s highlight video from Stanford below. He made some outstanding grabs and at least one contested end-zone catch. We know fromteh past few years that Zach can downright lay his body out and still make the catch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpUZdljj45Y
When I watched the highlight reel of Howard, I see Trent Richardson’s highlight reel. A player on a super-talented team playing against inferior opponents.
Njoku on the other hand, jumps out of the screen with athleticism. He also seems to possess impressive ball skills. I don’t see teams in the NFL game-planning to defend Howard, but Njoku teamed up with Ertz could be special.
Ertz is a great catcher
Howard was criminally underused but that’s not his fault Bama ran the ball more than they passed so Howard ended up blocking pretty often. Howard has everything that you want in a TE; size, speed, RAC skills, hands, and blocking. I don’t pay much attention to college football but supposedly Howard’s snaps decreased from last year. Don’t know why but after seeing Bama’s offense this year I can see why (hint: their QB sucks). This is just my opinion but Howard is a high floor and high ceiling guy. Supposedly, he’ll be a better pro than college player.
Njoku is more WR than TE right now. He has the speed, RAC, and hands to be a great weapon but he’s a little raw for a TE. He’s not the best blocker right now and that’s going to put him in the same situation like Ertz was years ago. Njoku reminds me of a more raw Eric Ebron and that may or may not be a good thing. IMO, he’s a boom or bust type prospect.
Thanks disqus I had to retype all of this on my phone. Fun times.
cant wait until tommy posts his draft board most likely it will be after the superbowl.
here’s my first 3 RDS subjuect to change. with lattimore and cook off the board
RD1Ramczyk( providing his hip checks out) which ironically is the reason i think he’ll be available at 15. Best tackle in the draft read somewhere dude gave up 0 sacks against top sec talent. This would allow us to release peters get some cap space and have bookend tackles for the next 5 years for mr wentz.
RD2 Pocic top interior lineman in the draft. O line if healthy will be solid for the next 5 years. i would like to trade back and get him later in RD2 but i dont think he lasts until the eagles 3rd pick.
Solid o line also allows our current stable of running back to thrive which helps the passing game.
RD3 d. King i think he will be available in RD 3 as better prospects will push him down and he was not stellar at the senior bowl.
RD4 k. passagnon with bennie gone ( too much money to resign) we get a guy with all the physical tools to shine. Jim will coach him up!
RD4. Kupp…catches everthing but slow…ok..he’s the white version of anquan boldin….a steal in the 4th.
I’m assuming you’re typing on a phone, but that was painful to read without the use of Caps or spacing between paragraphs.
I’d like to see a comparison (from D3FB) on Pocic/Elfein/Lamp.
Robinson
Feeney
Lamp/Pocic
Elflein
Pocic is more mobile has some issues with short powerful guys (pad leverage) he’s gonna have to clean up but good player otherwise. Lamp is probably more powerful and technically sound. They are pretty close and is more of a dealers choice. I’d still take Feeney over them.
Elflein is a pretty classic C. He’s 6’2. I didn’t love him coming into the year but he improved alot and is working with LeCharles Bentley for his prep (which is big plus). He’s ok. I wouldn’t take him until the very end of the top 100 but he should have a long productive career but will likely never be excellent.
Thanks for the insight!
Kupp and Kpassagnon are 2nd round picks probably, maybe Kupp slides into the 3rd.
Don’t really like going that heavy OL early, this is a poor OL draft, we do not have 2017 needs currently at the position and we can see how we can develop some of young guys and new late round picks this year before we know what we need to commit capital wise (cap and picks) in 2018.
No way do you cut Peters without a solution already on the roster, and doing the dirty on a HOF player cutting him after the draft (when he has no chance to resign for his real cap value) would not exactly be taken well by the team or other players.
Philosophically we have a range of needs we need to address in the next 2 years. LG and RT are long term needs but we have solid starting options currently (if/when we move on from Kelce, Seumalo will move from LG to C most likely – leaving the need at LG). WR/RB/CB are critical short and long term needs – and WR/CB generally are some of the hardest positions to contribute as rookies needing the most NFL adaption. This being the case it make sense to address those positions early and often this year, see how those positions develop and then we can make better long term decisions in 2018.
The development of WR and CBs have been extremely fruatrating. On the WR end there have been plenty of resources spent with no where near the outcome expected. The only CB drafted high is already gone after a season. I see A LOT of talented Wr and Cb on this draft so I full heartedly agree with grabbing as many of them as possible.
I am kind of up and down on this WR group. There are a lot of interesting guys who might go in the 4-5th round range that have 1 or 2 things they do very well and as long as you use them as roll players could really help fill out no3-5 WR on our depth chart long term.
Williams and Davis i like as prospects, but am not in love, and will be solid value at no.14/15 After that i really don’t like the collection of late 1st/2nd round guys which is really thin and will get over drafted.
I dont like them in the second either but i would be thrilled with WR, CB, CB or really any combo of those.
Problem is that you have 2 WR’s who could be gone by 14, and then i honestly think you should not be drafting a WR until the 4th round. I think i would get a good WR in free agency, and plan to take a WR or 2 in 4-7 rounds. If WR ends up BPA in the 1st great, if not don’t try and force things and just make do in 2017 and come back again in 2018 in a better FA class and maybe a better draft class.
If they are both gone by mid rounds but I think Davis will be there because of injury concerns, there are plenty of guys possibly in the third like Jones, Kupp, Reynolds possibly Schuster. Youre right though, BPA, dont force anything. Like I said, I personally, wpuld be thrilled.
Lane at LT Big V at RT. I am channeling the NE way of doing things . Better to get rid of someone a year early than a year late. Maybe we trade him. Its time to get a core set of players on the Oline that can grow together for the next 2-3 years with Carson.
If you release Peters, in addition to releasing the guys that are almost assured to be released (Barwin, Mathews, Kendricks, McKelvin) we will end up with somewhere between $35-40 million in cap space. Hard to think that we’d spend that much on free agency and not have enough left over to give Bennie his $5M a year.
Bennie is going to get much more than $5 million a year
1 Tech’s have traditionally not got PAID – and while he is a good run defender and gets good push up the middle he is not a 350lb monster that demands a double team every snap.
Think he ends up with a contract very similar to Vinny Curry at about $9mil a year, and i think i would pay that as the Eagles.
You’re probably right that he ends up getting more than $5 million a year, but I’m not so sure that it will be significantly more than that.
In total, there are only 6 DTs in the NFL that make more than $10M a year and only 5 more that make between $5-10M a year. Is there another team out there that things Bennie is one of the 5 best DTs in the league? If not he won’t be making “much” more than $5M a year.
While Bennie is the perfect run stuffing compliment to a guy like Cox and does his job very well, it’s rare that teams fork over mega bucks to DTs that have a grand total of 5.5 sacks over their entire 4 year career.
Here’s the complete list of DTs that make more than $5M a year, how much they average per year, and their sack numbers:
Suh – $19M/yr – 47 career sacks (was averaging over 7 sacks a year when he signed his big FA deal)
Cox – $17M/yr – 28.5 career sacks (avg 5.5/yr before signing for big money)
Malik Jackson – $14.2M/yr – 21 career sacks (5/yr)
McCoy – $13.6M/yr – 42 career sacks (5.5/yr and was coming off of back to back 9.5 and 8.5 sack seasons before signing his big deal)
Michael Brockers – $11M/yr – 14.5 career sacks (3.5/yr)
Geno Atkins – $10.6M/yr – 52 career sacks (over 7/yr)
Damon Harrison – $9.25M/yr – 4 career sacks (0.75/y, but he’s a ginormous 350 pound run stuffer that averages 40 tackles a year which is a ton for a DT)
Tyrone Crawford – $9M/yr – 12.5 career sacks (averages over 4 sacks per year)
Linval Joseph – $6.25M/yr – 16.5 career sacks (3/yr)
Dan Williams – $6.25M/yr – 3.5 career sacks (0.5/yr…another huge run stuffer that averaged nearly 30 tackles per season)
Haloti Ngata – $6M/yr – 29.5 career sacks (nearly 3/yr)
(the next highest is Domata Peko of the Bengals who makes $4.5M/yr)
It should be obvious from just name recognition alone that Bennie is not in this upper tier of DTs at this point in his career. But, the stats bear it out as well. Logan only has 5.5 sacks over a 4 year career. And, if trends hold true, unless you’re the rare 350 pound lane clogger that just anchors the LOS, you better be able to get to the QB if you want to make more than $5M a year as a DT
As you can see there’s a big drop from the guys that make $9M+ per year and the next tier which is down around $6M/yr. And, it’s no coincidence that all but two of that group average more sacks per year than Bennie has in his entire career.
Meanwhile that next tier below the $9M+ guys has significantly less sack output, but they still average 3 a year (with the exception of Williams who is purely a run stuffer – albeit one of the best ever at being a run stuffer)
After that there’s another big drop off to the DTs that make between $3-4.5M/yr. These are starters that often play the run well, but don’t dominate and certainly don’t generate much pass rush, or they’re still on their rookie contracts. Bennie, in my eyes at least is somewhere between the top of that last tier that includes guys like Cederick Thornton, Sen’Darrick Marks, Jonathon Babineaux, Nick Fairley and Star Lotuleilei and the one right above them that includes aging stars like Ngata and Dan Williams as well as Linval Joseph.
Joseph is probably the closest comparison and he averages almost 3 times as many sacks per season as Bennie and was the higher rated and more physically talented player coming out, which does have an effect on contract negotiations.
That doesn’t mean that some team won’t shock me and throw a ton of cash at him, but I’d highly doubt that if he ends up getting more than $5M per season that it’s much more than the $6.25 Joseph is getting. I just don’t see a huge bidding war for a guy with very limited pass rush production, decently above average against the run, who is coming off a season where he struggled with injuries and posted half a sack over the last 9 games of the season and struggled quite a bit.
I like Bennie as much as the next guy, but sometimes we tend to overvalue our own guys. I’m not sure there’s going to be too many teams fighting over themselves feeling like they have to get Bennie Logan at any price. I think Bennie will test the market and find out that even if he get’s offered more than the Eagles are currently offering it’s not going to be substantially more than the (what I assume is) reasonable dollar number they’ve dug in at.
Agreed on some basic points of your arguments, but the DT price range has gone up significantly in the last 2 years.
For example- Ngata signed before the 2015 season, but has a cap charge of $7+ million this year.
Joseph signed a 5 year deal in 2014, for $31m +
I hate to say it, but Brockers is probably the closest on this list to what
Bennie will get, but Brockers had the distinction of being a high 1st round pick which helped his price tag. Even then, his cap number going into this year will be $11m.
Bennie is going to get between $7-9m per year, and on the higher end if he actually hits free agency. His agent is the same that Cox has, and he is a tough negotiator when it comes to his guys.
Think of it this way- if we want to keep Logan, the franchise tag is probably our starting point for money up front this year.
The franchise tag for 4-3 defensive tackles last year was $13m+
I think Wash overpays for bennie. It’s not just about free agency for this year but having money roll over to next year as well.
I think the eagles right now are terrible at developing specialty positions like WR and CB right now. On Oline they have been somewhat competent at for a while now. If we can draft good o line talent and develop them then I think we can direct financial resources to CB and WR. I think pryor would love to get out of Cleveland but it will take some CASH to pry him away. The money we save on Peters can be used to get pryor and maybe a good DB this year or the next. Building now for the future.
Is Logan even on Washington’s radar? Since they hired McCloughan they’ve been hitting a nice average on the high drafts. I don’t see them overpaying for a 2nd tier DT.
yeah they came out and said they would pursue.
It’s hard to see Peters getting released.
The one thing we know: Lurie is on record saying that the team will give Wentz everything he needs to succeed. Cutting ties with an above average (albeit declining) LT doesn’t meet that m.o.
If Peters gets outplayed in the offseason, sure. But that would be even more surprisingly than an outright cut.
Kupp, not slow.
Ramsyck has massive Danny Watkins red flags. He only played college football at all because a coach happened to be in his town and begged multiple times (also Wisconsin plays in the big 10, he only played one game against the SEC LSU)
Kassangon is a DE so Bennie and he wouldn’t be interconnected at all.
Given the red zone issues this team had yet again last year – which of these guys is a better potential fit or is that too difficult to speculate on?
I think Howard is just a better overall player than Njoku. Njoku is faster and crazy athletic but I think Howard is better at everything else
LJ Smith vs Witten debate?
Sounds right
This has been the best thread in a while on here and gives me hope the Internet is just not a reflection of peoples’ unfiltered IDs.
Favorite random Super Bowl stat:
Americans will eat 1.33 billion chicken wings on Super Bowl Sunday, and
they’ll mostly be purchased from restaurants, according to the National Chicken Council.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/geoffwilliams/2017/01/30/1-33-billion-chicken-wings-to-be-eaten-on-super-bowl-sunday-and-more-food-factoid-fun/2/#667b35915dc9
That means 0.665 billion poor chickens will be sacrificed on the altar of this national holiday. I don’t think I’ve ever cooked chicken wings at home. I guess if you count roasting chickens.
you should consider, can’t do worse than 90% of restos
Chances are that a few million Americans will eat wings taken from a chicken sacrificed by a certain sith lord that will coach this Sunday.
If you’re not into frying at home (I’m not due to the mess). This is the method I use.
http://thecookful.com/bake-chicken-wings-crispy/
Interesting, might have to give that a try. Never had any luck with getting baked wings crispy. My main method is actually on the grill, which turn out great.
Yep, that Ian what I started doing. Much less labor intensive than frying too. Two other tips (I like my own wings): make them ahead in the oven, then reheat them on the grill before saucing and serving. If you make your own sauce, replace the butter with coconut milk. No one will notice a difference except the sauce won’t separate if it gets too hot like butter will.
Don’t feel guilty. Most of those chickens had already lost their fingers to my kids.
If the Eagles really go BPA then there’s a good chance that we will pick a FB at #14 (provided we win the coin toss!).
1. QB
2. OT
3. DE
4. DT
5. CB
6. FS
7. RB
8. WR
9. OLB
10. ILB
11. TE
12. SS
13. OG
14. FB
The Draft in Philly shall be exciting..!
I’d go
14. LS
15. K
16. P
17. FB
But a guy who doubles as LS/FB????
I find that highly picked TEs don’t produce near the level that we want them to. The exception being Gronk since he’s a monster. So I have to say no to either TEs at our spot but yes if we trade down.
Gronk was a late 2nd due to injury so not really a highly picked guy either.
He was a top 50 pick despite of him falling down the board, that’s still pretty high.
Gronk was only a 2nd round pick due to his back injury.
The problem is that the great TEs do more than just catch, they also block and there havnt been drafted many complete TEs high the last few years.
One of the best prospect in Eifert just hasnt been healthy. While other highly picked guys like Ertz and Ebron was never blockers in college.
2013 was a hell of a class for TEs
Off topic: Are the Saints becoming the late era Reid/McNabb team with Payton/Brees?
Yes. Bad drafts and failure to groom developmental talent is biting them in the butt.
I disagree, they did a good job grooming Malcolm Jenkins; -)
Except Jenkins wasn’t really good when he was with the Saints.
I disagree. He was a good safety, just not great. The Saints went after All-Pro safety Jairus Byrd and let him walk in free agency. The Saints just didn’t think he would become more than a good safety.
Jenkins was a much better safety with the Saints than Nate Allen, Quinten Demps, or Kurt Coleman were when they were with the Eagles. The latter 2 became Pro Bowlers themselves.
He wasn’t. He was inconsistent and most people were glad they let him walk instead of overpaying for him at that time.
I agree he was inconsistent, but he was a 2-time captain for the Saints. Unlike the Eagles, the Saints name one defensive starter a captain for the entire season. The organization and his teammates valued him very much.
I have no idea how most Saints felt when he was allowed to leave, but I doubt most were glad when he left. I would say most were happy to get the playmaker Byrd based on his high volume of interceptions in Buffalo and though Byrd was a huge upgrade because of the ints.
Jenkins signed for 3 years at $5M per year. Byrd signed for 6 years at $9M per year. I don’t think anyone in the league thought Jenkins was being overpaid at $5M per year.
Jenkins is a coverage safety with bad hands. He’s never going to have a lot of interceptions. I think too many people judged him by that stat.
He couldn’t tackle or cover with consistency with the Saints.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/eagles-sign-malcolm-jenkins/
A fantasy football article, really?
You can go check all of the other FA scouting reports but you’ll just get the same thing. Tommy himself didn’t think Jenkins was going to be this good.
http://igglesblitz.com/2014/03/malcolm-jenkins/
Also you probably shouldn’t be quick to discredit things.
Thanks for the link, Tommy’s article just reinforced my point that Jenkins was a good safety with the Saints.
Not really, part of why Tommy wanted Jenkins is that he would have been cheap and was a scheme fit.
http://igglesblitz.com/2014/03/free-agency-preview/#disqus_thread
And no Jenkins wasn’t good with the Saints, I have no clue where you’re getting that from when nearly all of the Saints fans saw him as Kurt Coleman 2.0 during his time there.
Not sure if you’re trolling me or you actually believe a 2-time season-long captain of the Saints (along with Drew Brees) was a bad player. Teams do not select bad players as season-long captains.
Next thing you know you’ll be telling me Trump had the largest inauguration crowd ever and there is no proof of global warming because science isn’t real. #alternativefacts
Wait what? Do you seriously think that being team captain has anything to do with performance on the field? Shoot don’t tell Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill, DeAngelo Hall, and RG3 that then since they’ll get their precious C taken away!
Undisputed starting QBs are almost always voted captain of their team.
DeAngelo Hall was named captain midway through his Pro Bowl season and again the year after he made the Pro Bowl.
no cap space
McNabb made playoffs all the way through the end of his time here………….
True… Those last couple of year just kinda blurred together for a bit. The Kolb dynasty was rather short lived.
The Saints hasnt been good for a long time. They havnt made any noise for like 5 years.
Howard-centric draft
Round 1 Pick 17 (WASH): O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama (A+)
Round 2 Pick 11: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford (A)
Round 2 Pick 17 (WASH): Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida (B)
Round 3 Pick 10: Zay Jones, WR, East Carolina (B+)
Round 4 Pick 12: Isaac Asiata, OG, Utah (B+)
Round 4 Pick 33: Dawuane Smoot, DE, Illinois (B+)
Round 5 Pick 11: Eddie Vanderdoes, DT, UCLA (B)
Round 6 Pick 10: Javancy Jones, OLB, Jackson State (B-)
Round 7 Pick 12: Jeremy Cutrer, CB, Middle Tennessee (B+)
TE could be another position if the Eagles decide to part ways with Celek.