More on the Defense and Numbers
Posted: June 26th, 2017 | Author: Tommy Lawlor | Filed under: Philadelphia Eagles | 85 Comments »
My last post talked about Jim Schwartz getting the defense to play better this season. He’s in Year 2 with the team and that has been good to him in the past. Readers had some interesting points to make.
ChoTime brought up the point that judging a defense based on points and yards allowed is somewhat flawed. The play of the Eagles offense affects how often the defense gets on the field and what positions their put in. This is absolutely true and a very relevant point. ChoTime then mentioned that Football Outsiders had the Eagles rated 4th in DVOA. That would tell you the team doesn’t have that much room to improve.
The Eagles defense was odd in 2016. It dominated the Steelers and Falcons, two dynamic offenses. The Eagles only gave up 30 or more points once all year. That’s tough to do in today’s NFL. As a point of comparison., Seattle gave up 30 or more twice in the regular season.
The flip side is that the Eagles lost five straight games and gave up 26 or more points in every one of those games. And that was with playoff hopes hanging in the balance. Cincy put up 46 points over a 3-game stretch and then scored 32 against the Eagles. There were times when the Eagles struggled against both the run and the pass. There were a couple of blown leads.
No matter how you slice it, the defense was good last year. They can (and need to) get better this year.
I am old school with my stats so I do appreciate readers reminding me of the analytics information that is out there. It really is good to see things from different perspectives.
*****
AC Viking raised the question of how Jim Schwartz did when after the second year jump he had in Detroit and Tennessee. The numbers aren’t good. However, context is needed. The Titans used to live and die with huge free agent deals. The reason Jevon Kearse left them is they couldn’t afford him after giving out bad contracts in previous years. The 2004 Titans dropped all the way to 27th in yards allowed. That will happen when you lose a player like Kearse. The flip side is that the Eagles jumped into the Top 10.
The Titans were an odd organization back then. They were good, then hit rock bottom in 2004 and 2005. They came out of that and got good again. There wasn’t the usual building a team plan. There was Jeff Fisher taking shortcuts, with them rarely working.
Detroit never got higher than 13th in yards allowed, but when you consider they started out dead last at 32nd, that’s pretty impressive. Schwartz couldn’t get that defense over the top, but he did get it to the middle of the pack.
Schwartz has an interesting situation in Philly. He inherited talent and had a good initial season. Getting the team to play better won’t be easy for him. Going from the mid-20’s or anywhere in the 30’s is easier because you can only go up. If you eliminate mistakes and get players to make a few more plays, you’ll jump in the rankings. Going from 13 is a different story. You need to get a good unit to become an excellent unit.
*****
Random note of the week.
I was cleaning up some old stuff and found a scrap sheet of paper from March/April of 2013. I had written three names down.
- Chance Warmack
- Jonathan Cooper
- Dallas Thomas
Two of those guys are now Eagles. Back then, that seemed like a fantasy idea. The three of them looked like future starters, with Warmack and Cooper as potential Pro Bowl players. Now, Warmack and Thomas are here fighting for roster spots and hoping to keep their NFL careers going.
Cooper is in Dallas and has a chance to start. They are going to turn him into the dominant star that the Cardinals, Browns and Patriots couldn’t.
I thought Cooper and Warmack would have been the next elite guards but man was I wrong.
Also who else knew that Dallas Thomas was on the roster?
I didn’t like Cooper; AT ALL. And now that he’s on Dallas it confirms he sucks.
I was WAY WRONG on Warmack. I figured he’d come in the NFL and murder people. Not only was he dominant on his own tape, but we was dominating in the background of every highlight of every other Bama player that year. D3 clued me into on of the issues with Warmack being that Bama plays very close splits on its o-line and Warmack’s lack of lateral quickness got exposed in the NFL because he had to do more East / West movement rather than only North / South.
hey man, you’re needed over at Phillyvoice. JK did his “10 reasons to hate Giants” articles and NYG fans are over there talking junk.
Even if you don’t know how to read, get over there just for the stick figures.
The finest stick figure journalism in sports media.
I got those fools when Kempski Tweeted the article.
I love following the battle on Twitter. It’s fun
I knew Dallas Thomas was on the roster because I know all OL on the roster. I’m not a well man. I have opinions on Victor Salako (not even a shot in hell) and Josh Andrews is my version of Mike and Kenjon Barner.
Cooper and DeCastro are the two best pure Guards I’ve ever seen come out. I wasn’t as high as Warmack as consensus (phone booth road graders aren’t really my thing)
Cooper kind of had some weird things work against him. He was hurt a bunch early in his career and so wasn’t able to grow into it, and then he was always in Arians doghouse (and the franchise as a whole, you take a G that high dude better be a stud day 1) I watched a couple games of him back in 2015 for a piece on our game against the Cardinals. He wasn’t bad. He had some nice highlights and was relatively consistent given that he had missed so much time. His biggest issues seemed to stem from him trying to make home run blocks when the situation only called for a simple conservative one.
Someone who watched him with Cleveland the week before he got cut was really surpised he got cut because he wasn’t bad. Again same thing, overall pretty solid but had a couple plays where he was overly aggressive and was jumpsetting 5 step pass pro. There were some whisper going around during that point that he kept getting cut because he was below the mendoza line on the dickhead/talent graph.
Should we have our hopes up on the 2017 OL? What’s you’re overall view of the entire OL?
The starters are a top 10 unit (top 3-5 if everything breaks right). And we have ridiculously good depth.
Given that it looks like we’re probably not going to be able to offload Kelce (he’s fine, not the player he used to be but still an average starter, not the useless worthless POS many would have you believe) my starting 5 would be:
Peters- Sem – Kelce – Brooks – Lane
I’m not as high on Warmack being a bounce back guy as others. I think the issues are deeply ingrained (he had solid coaching in TEN and worked with LeCharles Bentley but yet they persist). I’m not sure if he makes the team if he’s not the starter. G only so hard to keep him active and are you really keeping a 25 year old on a bounce back deal around as an inactive?
I’m still not sure I understand the Wiz extension. He’s a really nice piece as an interior swingman but Sem can play C and you’ve got 900 guys who can play guard. Feels like they had a deal to move Kelce that fell through and now you’re overly deep.
Barbre probably makes the team as he’s got effectively zero trade value and can play everything but C. I’ll be pissed if he’s the starting G.
Vaitai sounds like he’s used the experience from last year and had a nice spring. I’m just not sure he’s active much this year if Barbre is kept.
Gordon is interesting. On one hand coaches are moving him around in a variety of ways trying to find creative uses for him to get reps this year. On the other hand if you read between the lines from his media availability Stoudt seems to have soured on him.
I’m a big Orlosky fan. I thought he was a guy who could have started this year if he ended up in the right situation. We are very much not that situation. Will be interesting to see what happens with him.
Neary’s interesting but we’re just so loaded at interior OL he’s gonna have a hard time even making the PS.
Tobin is done for. So is Hart.
Andrews is the most fungible interior OL I’ve ever seen at our deepest position. I will throw a shit fit if he makes the 53. He’s 26 with no playing experience or particularly notable skillsets. He’s a perpetual 9th OL. Please for the love of god just move on.
Greene is probably competing with Neary for a PS spot.
Thomas is going to have to suplex Cox and Jerningan at the same time to get any serious looks. That Miami OL situation fucked up pretty much everybody involved with it.
Salako is a hella camp body. Not very athletic. Weird weird body composition. Waist bender. Probably going to get McGloin killed in PS.
I told you. I’m not a well man.
Great summary, one of the posts I wish there was a +5 button rather than the up arrow
Yeah, it’s consistently well thought out work from D3.
We’re Eagles fans – not of us are well.
Thanks for the run-down!
Kelce sucks!
And how many o-linemen do you think they keep? I’d advocate for 10, but that’s predicated on only keeping 5 WRs because we traded J Matt.
9 or 10
So something like
locks – Peters, Lane, Sem, Brooks
inoperable tumors – Kelce, Barbre
backups – Wiz, Big V, Gordon
and a mystery 10th ?
Orlosky and Warmack the most likely if they keep 10.
Bad whiff on Warmack mentally on my end.
One season from panic to relaxation. How come CB is so hard?
Because CBs are stupid
So you’re not taking Antonio Cromartie over John Urschel in a contest of academics?
Out of curiosity, what would have been a better situation for Orlosky? I would think that stepping into a top10 line would be ideal. Or is it because there are veterans ahead of him?
A less crowded situation with an underwhelming starter and no real backup. Also probably fits best in a gap scheme, not because he’s a big strong guy but because gap scheme centers almost always just block back.
Specificially:
Buffalo
Jets
Ravens
Bucs
Cards
Rams
49ers
You are a treasure, Sir.
Shit is gold. Thank you.
What’s a Victor Salako.
It’s for the best that you not know. The brain cells that contain that information have repeatedly threatened their own cellular lives for me assigning them with such information.
“…below the mendoza line on the dickhead/talent graph.”
Sounds like he is in the right spot now.
Coming out of college, Cooper appeared to be the most ‘safe’ pick in the entire draft. Like Aaron Curry before him, he made a fool of us all who thought he was a lock to be a great NFL player.
“Cooper is in Dallas and has a chance to start. They are going to turn him into the dominant star that the Cardinals, Browns and Patriots couldn’t.”
I’m wondering how much it hurt when Tommy’s tongue went completely through his cheek.
Nice part about the off-season is that there is time for discussions like this, even if only a few of us stick around.
During the season, there are now a minimum of several hundred comments for each of Tommy’s posts. It gets hard to follow conversations. These off-season dialogues are very cool.
There are some great rants and arguments during the season
From an interesting article on analytics in the NFL at MMQB.si.com:
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/06/27/nfl-analytics-what-nfl-teams-use-pff-stats-llc-tendencies-player-tracking-injuries-chip-kelly
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So who was that contending team?
Who was that smallish RB?
Who was the draft pick?
If you said the Eagles, Brian Westbrook, and Tony Hunt . . . you’d be correct.
Hunt was the Birds’ 3rd Rd pick in the 2007 draft.
And he gained over 3,000 for Penn State.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tony-hunt-1.html
And Hunt was out of the NFL in less than 2 years.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HuntTo01.htm
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I wonder who in Eagles management made the call to select Hunt?
And who were the scouts who advocated for him?
And what were the 5 criteria for which Hunt batted .000?
(I’m guessing the same 5 criteria that led to the selection of LeSean McCoy.)
Bad agility times and only 5.1 ypc in college.
Can only think of 1 Penn State RB that every panned out .. not thinking John Capelleti either
Capelleti was too soft for the NFL because he went to Bonner instead of Upper Darby.
Barkley is about to add to the list of pan outs.
And I’ve got Lenny Moore as a HOFer for the Colts, Richie Anderson was solid, Franco Harris in the HOF, Larry Johnson had a couple of great seasons with the Chiefs, Lydell Mitchell in the 70s had some solid seasons, Michael Robinson had a nice career once he position changed to RB, Matt Suhey was good for the Bears, the real Curt Warner was good for Seattle.
The problem is Blair Thomas, KiJana, and Curtis Enis all being various forms of busts in the same 8 year period.
Curt Warner was an outstanding RB who, in my opinion, was criminally underrated as an NFL RB. He was on track for a GREAT NFL career before devastating knee injuries derailed his career. With that said, he still strung together about 5 great years – 3 of which he was a Pro-Bowler (when the distinction was a bit more prestigious).
Dsmn your right! I was thinking larry Johnson hell yes .. but you got everyone in there quite fairly indeed!!
There was a good wikipedia page on Penn State players who played in the NFL.
I actually thought, ‘Sounds like that freakin’ Tony Hunt everyone was so excited about.” before touching “Read more”
Thats a shock. As a big back you would think he checked boxes. Man, Im intrigued. Have to read whole thing.
He was too slow, even for his size.
He was slow for even PSU/Big10 standards, so I wasn’t entirely shocked to see him fizzle out in the NFL. However, I thought he would at least be somewhat productive.
Not long after Hunt (my memory is getting hazy here), we drafted another big back out of LSU who I thought would at least be a competent big back. He went about 6’1 230 and ran a pretty fast 40 time. Like Hunt, he didn’t last long either and was a disappointment.
this guy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Scott_(American_football)
Did he even make it to pre-season?
He got the Howie my trash for your junk trade in preseason. We got a CB that was on the fringes for 2 years. Jorrick Calvin
26 days to training camp.
29 days to the day the veterans report.
37 days to the Hall of Fame Game (Go Cards).
44 days to Eagles @ Packers.
65 days to final pre-season game, Eagles @ Jets.
67 days to final roster cut down day.
72 days to NFL opener. Big Red @ the Boston Cheating Wankers.
75 days to Eagles season opener versus Washington Snyders.
75 days to https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b2c486d7559aba3fe3aebf4e59fb7878c75e395330ca60e4101d74a0bb53ac3e.gif
Not that I’m counting or anything.
Cut down day will be interesting this year with the changes made going from 75 to 53 players instead to 90 to 53 all at once.
Should really help out with that final preseason game, and give an extended look at some bubble guys fighting for a PS spot.
This is partially a response to daveH, but figured I’d throw it out to all of you. My sample might be small — mostly Eagles and Philly sports, and some NFL — but it sure seems like Iggles Blitz is an extraordinary sports blog.
Tommy is truly a journalist; someone who writes with knowledge and insight. And, with all due lack of humility, we are mostly an intelligent and thoughtful group of good-lookin’ commenters.
So, here’s a toast to Iggles Blitz. First round is on me.
1st Annual Igglesblitz convention. . . Unknown off the beaten track dive bar …
Anybody ever drink at the El Perro Rojo on Kensington Ave? Hell under the El now, but it used to be a blue-collar, working neighborhood. ‘Gotta be in the dive Hall of Fame. I was 16, first job, and they didn’t even know how to spell “i.d.”
Cheers
Tommy is a treasure, and I don’t just say that because he mentioned me in this post! He is putting out great content on an amazingly consistent basis, and has created this great community of intelligent and respectful commenters. Both things are very rare. So yes, we’re very lucky!
Well said.
反正闲着也是闲着，就来看看您的博客！
An interesting discussion on the value, and limits, of advanced stats:
https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/2017/6/27/15882008/advanced-analytics-eagles-draft-derek-barnett-nfl-pick-2017-defensive-end-pass-rusher-tennessee-mmqb
I’m glad people are talking about analytics, because I think it’s fun. I love checking out the numbahs and seeing how they compare to conventional wisdom. The sites I prefer are the ones that combine a logical approach with a nice correlation with results; in other words, the ones that make sense to me and also have some predictive (or at least descriptive ability).
I am curious about their statement that the Eagles have been leaders in analytics, but it does make some sense. They have bucked conventional wisdom is certain ways which suggests there may have been an analytics foundation. This may explain their emphasis on the passing game (has a higher expected value in almost every situation than running) and on pass rushers (so attacking the opposing passer should be emphasized for the same reason). Reid’s neglect of LB and WR may have been due to such analysis. I also wonder if Donnie’s neurotic tendency to avoid interceptions was based on analytics, since they are far more damaging than a 3-and-out.
Unfortunately, that article suffers from some rather bad writing. It said that the analytics guys said you need a 1.6 10-yard split. But Trent Cole had a 1.67, which is slower than 1.6! They also said that Barnett qualifies, but with his 1.69, he is even slower than Cole. Obviously, we’re not talking about a large difference, but the writing and logic there are poorly expressed.
I think that generally, analytics is overrated when it comes to draft evaluation (how could the essentially random results mean anything else?) and mostly of descriptive value when it comes to NFL games and players. Stats can show what happened to a far more exact degree than the “eye-test” or what the announcer or meathead reporter said. However, as far as predictive value, the simplest stat has the most predictive value: Pythagorean (points for vs. points against).
Article said you need to be in the 1.6s, which 1.67 and 1.69 are. But you’re right, there was not much meat to the article.
Pythagorean?
Pythagorean is a formula based on simple points scored and points against, which has been shown to be more predictive than win-loss record. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/pythagoras-gridiron
Interesting. Rather than (c^2/a^2+b^2=1), it’s (a^2/a^2+b^2=win%), where 2 is a different number for each sport. As usual though, not nearly as useful for football. Thanks for the intel!
No?
“From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Super Bowl champions that led the league in Pythagorean wins but not actual wins include the 2004 Patriots, 2000 Ravens, 1999 Rams and 1997 Broncos.” wikipedia
Football will never have a truly predictive analytics system simply because of sample size. Baseball has only one point of randomness and a comparatively huge sample size. Hockey and basketball have quite a bit more randomness, but still have a high enough sample size that there’s some sense of data being predictive. Football is incredibly random at all times and only has 16 games. And in those games, how many times did you run that specific play against that specific coverage, and can you really predict anything from that 1 play? Not really. Maybe. It’s just going to happen. If one team has a DVOA of 16.2 and another has 17, those should be looked at as very much equal. I don’t think we do that quite yet.
I agree, and in fact teams with large DVOA disparities routinely beat each other. I have read some analyses which claim that any football game within about a touchdown is essentially a draw, and this jibes with my sense of it.
Jason Peters’ cap #’s are in. Pre-extension, he counted for $11.7mm against the cap in 2017. It’ll now be $6,916,666. Savings of $4,783,334.
Translation: Eagles will trade for Richard Sherman and go undefeated to win the Super Bowl.
You read it here first.
Sherman might be overwhelmed here. Whereas there are only a few sorry ass players in the NFC West, he’d run out of sorry ass opponents in the NFC East. Kid in a candy shop level.
But but.. who else should we trade for?! Lol
I love Sherman. Think of him humbling Dak, Eli, and Cousins 6 times over! I’m just saying he might die of excitement.
Did we think Asante Samuel was overrated and at end of his career .. he was awesome/albeit he had weaknesses but he was worth having. .. anything similar or analogousness here ??
Asante was good.
I would say he was borderline awesome. Arguably our best CB since Sheldon and Troy…
Don’t forget Ellis Hobbs
You mean that guy we traded 2 5tb rounder for…?!
Haha! I totally forgot that part.
We should trade the prospect of foolish spending for otherwise using the money to extend Jernigan, Alshon, Hicks, etc etc…
I was just kidding. Agree with extending Hicks. Jernigan and Alshon can’t be extended during the season. Unless you were talking about rolling the saved cap space over to next year and then signing either one of those guys (if not both) to new contracts.
Yeah I know you were somewhat joking. I did mean all the above in terms of saving money to extend key players – whether before or after this season (might mean saving cap for next year).
I do not think that adding a pricey FA CB to optimize winning this year is worth not being able to retain key guys next year. I want to risk it with what we have this year (young potential in Douglass, Mills, (Jones), with so-so (may be generous) vets in Robinson, Brooks, and mix in flyers like CJ Smith and Grymes… I want to think long view. Carson is more likely to be SB caliber QB sometime in years 3-7 than year 2. Same for Doug.
I also don’t see how our DL doesn’t help the CBs more this year.
(ps. I can be snarky to a fault sometimes and for that I apologize. If it’s heightened in the near future – it’s because of a health crisis in my fam…(not cancer this time, but I’m a survivor who lost his Dad to that…). Anywho, you are all an amazing community (wish I didn’t know this from seeing it) for stuff like that so I thought I’d disclose in case I go overboard with party-pooper dryness up in here. I’ll try not to).
Sherman would be worse than Nnamdi.
Maybe. Maybe. Not.
Welcome Back..you seem different now that you’re married
Haha. How? 🙂
Nah … any photo to share of a 4am Eagles jersey at a beach rave in Mykonos ?
NFL suspended Cowboys DT David Irving four games for violating the league’s PEDs policy.
It was announced last month that Irving was facing the ban, and it’s now official. Irving played 530 snaps for the Cowboys last season, receiving really strong marks for his pass rush and above-average grades from Pro Football Focus for his run defense. A mammoth man at 6’7/285, Irving single-handedly dominated a handful of games last season, winning DPOW honors in Week 6 and then wrecking the Bucs in Week 15. It’s a big blow to an already-undermanned defensive line